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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #361
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:14am Sep 5, 2013 1:14am
Quoting asim.iqbal
{quote} Very Nice Look. It looks cool. I will look for PA in lower time frame. First traget 1.3250, second 1.3300 or it can be 1.3400.
This was developing nicely. Naughty pup had me up till 2 am but then failed to close clearly above the 1.32.

It did, by a few pips but I have mentioned this before that I always prefer visuals over actual pip calculations. To me, this was like a close almost at the LLS. It had to be a pass for me.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #362
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:30am Sep 5, 2013 1:30am
Quoting str8
{quote} Yes, the order flow is advanced but I don't think a new trader must understand why it works to make profit. I think (and hope) an understanding of how it works (fake out of HHR, close below the HHR, space, entry close to the source) is enough to make profit.
I know order flow is advanced. If we just read this thread first, it is RELATIVELY easy because Ghous in his generosity has made this easier for all of us. But I think if we really want to have intellectual curiosity, it is important to delve deeper into order flow .. the approach lamertrader has adopted. Its just my opinion.
  • #363
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:41am Sep 5, 2013 1:41am
Quoting KOS-fx
{quote} Is this EMA rejection trade ???????
Hey KOS,

No it wasn't an EMA rejection setup. It was developing as a fake out setup but with the "extended drag" that we talk about on the lower time frames. Where price initially fakes out, and then travels further into HHR/LLS before turning around again.

Here, the initial fake out, met a US bank holiday and the lack of momentum just allowed price to trickle through the wick of the fake out bar as it "dragged" on to find the next major block of orders. That point came in around the 150 EMA and price started pushing back up to the 1.32. This is always the most critical stage of the fake outs. Because if price was going to get rejected as resistance off the 1.32 then this then becomes a typical breakout+pullback+continuation phenomena. BUT if price permeates through the former support LLS as if there was no resistance there at all, then this is very much reminiscent of a fake out scenario. Once again, if this had to be a true breakout, then price should have just dropped through, and if it had decided to pull back then it must have held on its way back to the LLS via resistance (so as to confirm former resistance turning into support - a critical per-requisite for breakouts).

In this scenario however, Price did initially jump back above the 1.32 but closed weakly to keep us guessing if the LLS really wants to hold as resistance or has it allowed price to permeate through and once again use the LLS as support. Hence the pass...

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #364
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:43am Sep 5, 2013 1:43am
Quoting Pinbar
This was a nice setup, apart from the close being too far from the level. Too bad I was in the middle of moving house at the time. {image}
Heck! Brilliant!

I would take a setup as good as this as a regular pin bar trade J16 style

Thanks for sharing and good luck with moving that heavy furniture out

g.
I believe . . .
  • #365
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:44am Sep 5, 2013 1:44am
Quoting ghous
{quote} This was developing nicely. Naughty pup had me up till 2 am but then failed to close clearly above the 1.32. It did, by a few pips but I have mentioned this before that I always prefer visuals over actual pip calculations. To me, this was like a close almost at the LLS. It had to be a pass for me. {image} g.
Dear G...

Can you pl explain ground behind this trade opportunity.....

Regards
KOS
80% effort, 20% luck
  • #366
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:48am Sep 5, 2013 1:48am
Quoting anthm
Good Morning all, To Ghous thank you for all your time, Video is beaut I hope we get some more. Pinbar also thanks for your inputs and advice, all well recieved. As you see form my trade on post #321 I got stopped yesterday. I figure I was one of the smart money traders bait. This is my trade today once again I am left with exactly the same questions as post #321 (should I enter immediately on the close of the FO bar ie: early evening US) Also further to this as in my trade yesterday the 150 EMA is not really and influencing factor (ie: its quite...
That's a fake out bar?! Oops. The concepts here seem entangled a bit.

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Let me know if this makes sense.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #367
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:46am Sep 5, 2013 2:46am
This is on my watch list.

Will be interesting to see if the LLS holds up as resistance or not.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #368
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:57am Sep 5, 2013 2:57am
Quoting KOS-fx
{quote} Hey LT, I am in a confuse. This is not a fake out trade and what I see is 150 EMA act as a resistance. You mean 150 EMA rejection trades are not include in original method aren't it??????? Pl clarify.. Thanks KOS
Hupss sorry
I haven't got my own charts in front of me so I only saw your blank chart. And thats why I though you are doing dome kind of late entered fake-out.

I didnt sped much time with the base-trading though.
It's all psychology...
  • #369
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:01am Sep 5, 2013 3:01am
Quoting ghous
This is on my watch list. Will be interesting to see if the LLS holds up as resistance or not. {image} g.
Hi ghous
I am watching this too, as with Neg. correlation with AU, beside that shall we see if AU is going to reverse from its trend line or going to react to HHR, anyhow the usual order flow that we are looking may not happen since NFP and many releases are ahead and orders may be triggered at this stage (just speculative)

e.
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  • #370
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:08am Sep 5, 2013 3:08am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey KOS, No it wasn't an EMA rejection setup. It was developing as a fake out setup but with the "extended drag" that we talk about on the lower time frames. Where price initially fakes out, and then travels further into HHR/LLS before turning around again. Here, the initial fake out, met a US bank holiday and the lack of momentum just allowed price to trickle through the wick of the fake out bar as it "dragged" on to find the next major block of orders. That point came in around the 150 EMA and price started pushing back up to the 1.32....
Please correct me. In the first page of this thread you mentioned -

“A fake out setup, as per this method is NOT over unless you get a close beyond the fake out bar high/low”

Now,

In the EURUSD daily chart, following the fake out bar, price closes below the LLS. So to me as per the criteria that you mentioned, the fake out set up is over. So I am wondering why are you still persuing the fakeout setup?

What I do when I see the fakeout is the following:

1. If the fakeout bar on a daily is a good pinbar with confluence, I make the entry below the low/high of pinbar.

2. If the fakeout bar is not a pinbar, I wait for more confirmation on different time scales … 4hr, 8 hr, 12 hr … when I see a pinbar, I say fake out confirmed and I enter at the low or high of the pinbar. This is exactly what I did in the recent GBPJPY trade (which failed L).

  • #371
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:13am Sep 5, 2013 3:13am
Quoting ghous
{quote} That's a fake out bar?! Oops. The concepts here seem entangled a bit. {image} Let me know if this makes sense. g.
Oh wow, I did miss something very fundamental. Ok, so do i need to find the LAST HHR or the LAST LLS.?
Oh no wonder I get stopped out all the time.
Thank you I will soldier on

Regards
anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
  • #372
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:19am Sep 5, 2013 3:19am
Here's a trade I took on the GBP/JPY 4H

Had to eventually cut this out for a half bar loss as price showed absolutely no interest in carrying forward the thrust from the big sell off the bearish pin bar.

Notice how 3 consecutive bars after the bearish pin bar hardly dared to penetrate the low of the bearish pin bar i.e break it. Despite a close below the HHR price at first seemed more keen to test the 155 and then discovered there weren't enough sellers there anyway to build on the initial impact.

At the end of the day as traders our job is to simply use the available information to make logical decisions about entry, exit and trade management. In the end its always up to the market what it wants to do. The individual result on a trade will never be as important as the decisions you continuously make trade after trade that you can always go back to and convince yourself to be logical and sensible.

Once price popped out of my last safety cushion (the 155 RN) there was absolutely no point in holding on to the trade till the high of the fake out bar got taken out (i.e a full bar loss).

Also the deferred entry at a better price also made the management a hell lot easier, though as I say in the vid, there is always a risk when you decide to defer your entry.

Just a little insight into how I am thinking when I am in a trade and managing it live (its available in 720p):

Oh and its You tube too! (Thanks Steve)

Inserted Video


I'll be moving the other video to the You tube channel as well and editing the relevant posts.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #373
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:21am Sep 5, 2013 3:21am
Quoting giggles
{quote} Please correct me. In the first page of this thread you mentioned - “A fake out setup, as per this method is NOT over unless you get a close beyond the fake out bar high/low” Now, In the EURUSD daily chart, following the fake out bar, price closes below the LLS. So to me as per the criteria that you mentioned, the fake out set up is over. So I am wondering why are you still persuing the fakeout setup? What I do when I see the fakeout is the following: 1. If the fakeout bar on a daily is a good pinbar with confluence, I make the entry below...
@Ghous
Is that what people mean with "order flow is a mindset" --> That it's not simply trading these setups with it's strict rules, but it's much more reading what's price is doing over time. Getting an understanding what's going on, how the sentiment / other traders' opinion changed and then we act upon as these information.
As if it were playing a game of chess. The opponent moves - we stop and ask ourselves "why did he do that" -- in this process we might change out entire strategy or point of view. For example I wanted to use the "Sicilian defence" but this move made me to consider the whole picture. - Now I want to take in consideration his move, and act upon it - with for example using the Semi-Slav Defense.
In this process nothing happened but that we wanted to act upon the opponent's move, and we wanted to out-game him...

Im getting a feeling that forex is just like a game of chess... People want to screw out with each other - using the liquidity provided by the small guys, setting up s fake set-up etc. And right where the small guy would think - "it's time to get out" - well, then the big guys know now they can reverse their position and ride the horse into the sunset...
It's all psychology...
  • #374
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:33am Sep 5, 2013 3:33am
Quoting giggles
{quote} Please correct me. In the first page of this thread you mentioned - “A fake out setup, as per this method is NOT over unless you get a close beyond the fake out bar high/low” Now, In the EURUSD daily chart, following the fake out bar, price closes below the LLS. So to me as per the criteria that you mentioned, the fake out set up is over. So I am wondering why are you still persuing the fakeout setup? What I do when I see the fakeout is the following: 1. If the fakeout bar on a daily is a good pinbar with confluence, I make the entry below...
Hey Giggles,

The fake out setup didn't fail. the fake out bar did.

When we were holding these discussion in the HCR/LCS plus SFP research thread, we were discussing how the "fake out" is more a phenomena then a bar really. I've already shown through the video that on the lower time frames in particular you well get a lot of "failed initial fake out bars" which eventually turn out to be perfect textbook "fake out scenarios" in that price does exactly what you would want to see in a fake out situation except that its spread out on more bars instead of just one.

On the Euro too, we got an initial nice looking fake out bar that I took a small loss on. You're right that price actually closed under the fake out bar low (Which confirms to us that the fake out bar has failed) but the subsequent action is still very much in line with what we want to see. Price failing to gather any momentum to the downside getting a strong bullish reaction at the 150 EMA and traveling all the way back into the 1.32 RN that lies in confluence with the LLS.

Like I mentioned though, it just got messed up in the last few hours for me.

The confusion will wear off once you start to look at the fake out as a method and an actual live situation as opposed to just a bar. In the end the bars are our real triggers all the time (so here too, I was actually looking for the daily "bar" to close above the 1.32 nicely) but depending on what we see, the actual trigger bar may not necessarily always be the initial fake out bar to make or break a setup for good.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #375
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:38am Sep 5, 2013 3:38am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} @Ghous Is that what people mean with "order flow is a mindset" --> That it's not simply trading these setups with it's strict rules, but it's much more reading what's price is doing over time. Getting an understanding what's going on, how the sentiment / other traders' opinion changed and then we act upon as these information. As if it were playing a game of chess. The opponent moves - we stop and ask ourselves "why did he do that" -- in this process we might change out entire strategy or point of view. For example I wanted to use the...
Exactly! Treating this whole thing as a "mindset" for traders coming in with a notebook to pen down the exact rules for entry and exit is where this method is a little advanced. It takes a little time to break out of the "systems way of approaching trading". Ask any successful trader and he'll tell you how much the gut comes into play when taking/managing trades as well as passing trades. Yes we want to be as logical as possible but over time you're not even consciously wondering the logic behind your actions. You almost know you're being logical without having to consciously wonder about it. This is scarily good and probably the pinnacle every aspiring trader want to achieve. The point I am trying to make is that it can only be achieved if you start thinking in the larger capacities of mindsets as opposed to rigid rules and systems.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #376
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:06am Sep 5, 2013 4:06am
Watching CAD/JPY
Attached Image
  • #377
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:18am Sep 5, 2013 4:18am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Exactly! Treating this whole thing as a "mindset" for traders coming in with a notebook to pen down the exact rules for entry and exit is where this method is a little advanced. It takes a little time to break out of the "systems way of approaching trading". Ask any successful trader and he'll tell you how much the gut comes into play when taking/managing trades as well as passing trades. Yes we want to be as logical as possible but over time you're not even consciously wondering the logic behind your actions. You almost know you're...
Thank you, for re-assuring me that I'm on the right way

I remember as i first read the lines "OF is a mindset"... I shrug my shoulders, since I didn't understand what the hell it should mean...
Now I just look back at my "3 months before myself", who wanted to make equations and giant excel sheets...
It's like if I wanted to make science out of chess...
People want some holly grail system - is there a holly grail strategy in chess?...
But we can build an edge and become pro chess players... And that's what we are here for...

Honestly what I lack here on FF are the posts about psychology... I mean we got all these PA, Technical Analysis stuff and usually nobody ever mentions a word about psychology. (Though experts say trading is more about psychology then some rules in your notebook.)
All the new guys come in, with dollar signs in their eyes ( just like this guy ) and they just want to write down an exact system, and start earning money... And the faster you want, the further you get from the truth...

Thankfully I got a great mentor, who smacks me in the face every time I lose my patience...

Anyway At least now it starts to make some sense what the hell im doing here, and what actually trading is...

Ghous, Pinbar and others - Thank you guys, for all your help!
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #378
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:18am Sep 5, 2013 4:18am
Quoting ghous
This is on my watch list. Will be interesting to see if the LLS holds up as resistance or not. {image} g.
Price has held up on the LLS. Can the next bar push through. It must if this has to remain under my radar.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #379
  • Edited 4:46am Sep 5, 2013 4:19am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting asim.iqbal
I am going in, put my Stop loss at the end of bar. {image}
This is not a Fake Out Bar and the swing Point is rather small.

Check out the chart.
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  • #380
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:23am Sep 5, 2013 4:23am
Quoting Brixton
Watching CAD/JPY {image}
Hey Brixton,

Once again, its all about the story.

Notice how its headed straight back into a responsive round number and the bar high turned flip just under it.

Should make the trade a very tricky proposition

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g.
I believe . . .
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