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AUD/USD

  • #63,821
  • Sep 3, 2013 7:42pm Sep 3, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting 4xmaker
I hope Aussie GDP comes in at estimate or better. I've been sitting on a LONG close to the bottom for a while..... Ichimoku should go into the clouds soon. Do you guys think the sell off from above parity has been too fast and too much?
Yes I think it needs retrace up to the 92.5-93 area before heading south again ,holding long position from 90.0 so I hoping for good news as well .
  • #63,822
  • Sep 3, 2013 7:46pm Sep 3, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting NoRehearsals
{quote} Yes I think it needs retrace up to the 92.5-93 area before heading south again ,holding long position from 90.0 so I hoping for good news as well .
I am targeting that as well. I was hoping to hit that target range before the any tomahawks were launched.

The divergence happening with the USD being in the middle of the currency strength is interesting.

I was short EURUSD but closed that already from 1.34 zone.

The retail sales has been weak for Aussie, but I think Chinese double PMI confirmation is good enough for people to start buying Aussie and not worry too much about carry trade volatility. I don't see the US Bond yield rise to affect Aussie too much because Aussie's base rate is high compared to other nations like EU or GB... I use the international fisher theory to come to that conclusion.
  • #63,823
  • Sep 3, 2013 7:52pm Sep 3, 2013 7:52pm
just maxed out units and leverage long average position 0.90495. This thing is going up up up breaking trendline
The best dam pilot in the sky
  • #63,824
  • Sep 3, 2013 7:53pm Sep 3, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting AJhustler88
just maxed out units and leverage long average position 0.90495. This thing is going up up up breaking trendline
I wish you the best with your choice...............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #63,825
  • Sep 3, 2013 7:53pm Sep 3, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting AJhustler88
just maxed out units and leverage long average position 0.90495. This thing is going up up up breaking trendline
I personally would deleverage at this point, and wait for final confirmation of aussie GDP then slam it hard.
  • #63,826
  • Sep 3, 2013 7:56pm Sep 3, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} I wish you the best with your choice...............
You got anything open right now Alien?
  • #63,827
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:02pm Sep 3, 2013 8:02pm
Quoting AJhustler88
just maxed out units and leverage long average position 0.90495. This thing is going up up up breaking trendline
I just moved SL to 90.30 ,I always assume I'm wrong till proven right ,this GDP is like a coin toss IMO
  • #63,828
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:04pm Sep 3, 2013 8:04pm
Quoting NoRehearsals
{quote} I just moved SL to 90.30 ,I always assume I'm wrong till proven right ,this GDP is like a coin toss IMO
90.30 is like super close, a GDP release would usually be crazy spread and crazy volatility within that minute candle prior. Don't get whip-lashed!
  • #63,829
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:06pm Sep 3, 2013 8:06pm
we can fall as far as 0.8935 to form right shoulder on H1...

not sure if this is double top (97) or bottom (89)... hjmmm....
  • #63,830
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:07pm Sep 3, 2013 8:07pm
Quoting NoRehearsals
{quote} I just moved SL to 90.30 ,I always assume I'm wrong till proven right ,this GDP is like a coin toss IMO
Very risky... Good luck
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #63,831
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:09pm Sep 3, 2013 8:09pm
9100 is near ..very near IMO...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #63,832
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:28pm Sep 3, 2013 8:28pm
Shortly we will have Australian GDP (Q/Q) coming out

Release Time: 21:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 0.5%
Prior: 0.6%
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.3 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.3 [BUY]

If the Australian GDP q/q comes out at 0.2 or less ( -0.3 trigger), AUD/USD should go down by about 35 pips. If it comes out at 0.8 or better ( +0.3 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by about 35 pips.

Based on 31 estimates, median estimate is 0.5% and the average estimate is 0.5%. The lowest estimate is 0.2% (two votes), then 0.4% (six votes), and then 0.5% (eleven estimates). The highest
estimate is 0.7% (three estimates), and finally 0.6% (nine estimates). One standard deviation is +/- 0.1.

Historically the Q/Q was always released before the Y/Y number but of course that's never guaranteed. One thing for sure, they will not be released exactly at the same time and most likely the Q/Q will be released first.

Last time it came out at 0.6% vs 0.7% expected, and AUD/USD moved down by 30 pips.

Six months ago it came out at 0.6% vs 0.6% expected so it was a no trade for sure.

Nine months ago came out at 0.5% vs 0.6% expected, and there was almost no price action. No trade anyway.

Twelve months ago it came out at 0.6% vs 0.7% expected, and we saw nearly 15 pip drop on AUD/USD with a very fast retracement. Of course it was to close to expectations to enter a trade.

Fifteen months go we've gotten a very good deviation of +0.7 (1.3 vs 0.6 expected), and AUD/USD spiked up by over 50 pips within first minute, and then it moved even higher.

Eighteen months ago it came out at 0.4 vs 0.8 expected, and we saw a 40 pip spike, followed by additional move.

Twenty-one months ago it came out at 1.0 vs 0.8 expected and we saw almost 30 pip spike on AUD/USD. Not bad.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #63,833
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:31pm Sep 3, 2013 8:31pm
30 pip in less than a second .. modafekers...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #63,834
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:33pm Sep 3, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting hoom
30 pip in less than a second .. modafekers...
No worries, waiting for pull back to 0.905, i have pending long at there
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #63,835
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:35pm Sep 3, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting bskwak1124
{quote} No worries, waiting for pull back to 0.905, i have pending long at there
Pull back = AU drop

Current situation 915 is likely..
  • #63,836
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:40pm Sep 3, 2013 8:40pm
I see beyond 9100 in next hours I would like to load long again after little tiny correction
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #63,837
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:43pm Sep 3, 2013 8:43pm
I just made a 20% gain in a few minutes longing from 0.9050ish. Took profit reloading longs at 0.9075 at a lower leverage.
The best dam pilot in the sky
  • #63,838
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:45pm Sep 3, 2013 8:45pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} You got anything open right now Alien?
A little late to answer you, but I had a AUD long, after the news I doubled it and got out at 9085, waited a few minutes and got back in with a single for now.

Maybe 50 pips from here and back down..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #63,839
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:48pm Sep 3, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting hoom
I see beyond 9100 in next hours I would like to load long again after little tiny correction
agree
  • #63,840
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:50pm Sep 3, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} Pull back = AU drop Current situation 915 is likely..
Still, i dont it will just shoot up to 0.915 straight, i m waiting for any pull back perhaps 0.906 or 0.907 to load up tp at 0.913
Logics do not apply in FOREX
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