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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #127,601
  • Aug 30, 2013 10:17am Aug 30, 2013 10:17am
Quoting quejcik
Hello, I am quite new on this thread, I am now studying on the start of this thread, post by post...and I am pretty enthusiastic about this. Can please somebody comment me this situation? I will be very greatful What I see...I see "double top formation" on the round number 1.50000 and 38.2 fibo lvl and small pinbar on the second top of "double top formation" which looks like a good entry for me. {image}
The question that I would ask myself if I were looking at that chart would be, how many other traders would see a double top formation ?

Cheers
Dan
  • #127,602
  • Aug 30, 2013 5:56pm Aug 30, 2013 5:56pm
Quoting albus999
{quote} hey aioco, the pinbar closed outside the left eye so it's not a pinbar technically according to J16 PA. however if it had i would have taken the trade while looking for the left eye to hold upon the breaking of the pinbar to head into the ppz below. just my 2pips. {image}

Hi albus, thanks for your answer.

Anyway i took the trade even because a similar case happened on GBPNZD recently.

On WTI oil i think i'll expect a reaction at the midpoint of the box and then decide what to do .

Cheers
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  • #127,603
  • Edited 6:31pm Aug 30, 2013 6:19pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting gianmarco
Looking at GBPUSD daily: pinbar rejecting 21 and 150 EMA and S/R line around 1.543 BUT really near to the 365 EMA which by the way happens to be on a resistance area tested on may (heavily) and early august... Anyone looking at this setup? It's just that 365 EMA that's worrying me otherwise I would take the trade. Hope to hear your thoughts about this {image}
Hi gianmarco,

I personally passed on this particular trade although the pinbar that you are talking about actually bounces off strong confluence. Look at my first chart below and pay attention to the small blue box which highlights the area of confluence i.e. BRN @ 1.54000, PPZ, 50 Fib Retracement, ascending T/L and the 150ema. Quite a lot of confluence one would say... BUT

If you zoom out (second chart) and look at the bigger picture, you will see that you would be trading back into another strong confluence area i.e. BRN @ 1.56000, PPZ, 50 Fib Retracement and 365ema.

Personally I will be waiting for price to breakthrough 1.56000 and wait for a retrace to this area and hopefully get a PA bar e.g. BUOB.

Just my view. I'm sure many others would play it differently.

Regards
bud_fox
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  • #127,604
  • Aug 30, 2013 6:28pm Aug 30, 2013 6:28pm
Great area to watch on Daily GBPNZD.

Double/Triple Top with Divergence at BRN 2.00000

PA here would be a thing of beauty IMHO.

Regards
bud_fox
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  • #127,605
  • Edited 3:24pm Aug 31, 2013 5:03am | Edited 3:24pm
Hi all.

I've read the summary posts recommended by James and the first twenty pages in this thread. This approach has helped me a lot.

For that reason I would like to share a technique that I use and it's proven to be useful to me. My native language is not English, that explains how I write.

In order to confirm price action setups against S/R, Fibs and so on, I often use MACD (histogram and signal) and Stochastic oscillator.

I use all them together, so I don't recommend a strategy based only upon indicators. Price ranges and price action are always leading, what I look for is convergence among price action and ranges and indicators.

For MACD, I look a whole cycle minimum (from histogram crossover upon/below 0 level until it bounces again to 0 zevel).
1) I compare the current histogram height with the height in previous cycles. The more large histogram is the more long price movement tends to be.
2) Signal "applies" a symbolic pressure upon price depending on the relationship between signal position and histogram. If signal approximately within 70% of histogram heigth, signal follows current trend. If signal is beyond 70% or beyond histogram, it causes a pressure over price contrary to trend. When the ratio of signal value / histogram value is higher than 1 signal will cause a strong pressure to price in the opposite direction of trend. Thus, if signal crosses and goes out of histogram it will start to cause a pressure against current trend. If distance between signal and histogram is important in relation to histogram size, the pressure will be very strong.
3) Best entry and exit points are turning points at higher highs or lower lows of histogram when histogram size is high compared to average past cycle heigths.


For stochastic I use the regular 80%/20% levels as a reference.
1) Stochastic is stronger than MACD. If stochastic goes against MACD, stochastic always win.
2) A divergence between MACD ans Stochastic usually means non trending while it lasts or smaller price movements. Stochastic divergence does not necessarily means anything, since Stochastic slope can change over time before a new convergence.
3) When stochastic is beyond 80%/20% it has real power. When it breaks 80%/20% level a new cycle can be starting.

I use also Moving averages also to figure out privot points. For me, fib levels are useful if prices are outside past levels; if not, round numbers and past resistance/suport levels, channels, etc. are enough. However fibs are always a reference.

I hope this post is useful for someone and any feedback is always welcome.

Regards and congratulations for these nice forum and thread.
  • #127,606
  • Aug 31, 2013 5:43am Aug 31, 2013 5:43am
german TTK with a strong close on weekly. will wait for a pullback to about 13.40 euro for a long-entry.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #127,607
  • Aug 31, 2013 10:09am Aug 31, 2013 10:09am
Quoting aserbfx
german TTK with a strong close on weekly. will wait for a pullback to about 13.40 euro for a long-entry. {image}
I don't have this in the options from my broker. If you don't mind can you please tell me what broker are you using for this trade?

Thanks
  • #127,608
  • Aug 31, 2013 10:26am Aug 31, 2013 10:26am
Quoting giggles
{quote} I don't have this in the options from my broker. If you don't mind can you please tell me what broker are you using for this trade? Thanks
sure, interactivebrokers
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #127,609
  • Sep 1, 2013 2:03pm Sep 1, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting dan89
Hey Mike, initially I also prefered the upper trendline but I was concerned that if price did break out to the upside there would be a lot of trendline touches/traffic for price to break though. Anyone of these points could reverse price back to our entry. Question, how important is traffic / trendline touches within a pattern after price has broken out ? (if that makes sense ) Cheers Dan
Hey Dan

Yep each of those areas are trouble areas but that doesn't mean we have to fear trading into them, rather use them to help us manage our trades. In the case of usd/jpy I would watch reaction around the initial touches around 99 and the major trouble being into the BRN of 100


Best
Mike
  • #127,610
  • Sep 1, 2013 2:06pm Sep 1, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting quejcik
Hello, I am quite new on this thread, I am now studying on the start of this thread, post by post...and I am pretty enthusiastic about this. Can please somebody comment me this situation? I will be very greatful What I see...I see "double top formation" on the round number 1.50000 and 38.2 fibo lvl and small pinbar on the second top of "double top formation" which looks like a good entry for me. {image}
Hey Q

Welcome to the the thread hope it helps you

Dan gave you a good answer. I'd like to see price spend more time away from this area to consider it a double top. For example the daily pin is a better situation to call a classic j16 double top + BRN + pinbar. Although personally I want a much larger pinbar, but price did go to the FTA(first trouble area).


Again welcome
Mike
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  • #127,611
  • Sep 2, 2013 2:17am Sep 2, 2013 2:17am
This is realy killing frustrating
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If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #127,612
  • Sep 2, 2013 6:24am Sep 2, 2013 6:24am
Price left the triangle on USD/JPY chart. A good time to look for PA confirming the move up. And to look out for a false breakout.

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  • #127,613
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:41am Sep 2, 2013 9:41am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} if you want me to nit pick I prefer the descending TL due to accuracy, would have my rising TL drawn a bit different too Mike {image}
did you take it Dan ?
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  • #127,614
  • Sep 2, 2013 12:06pm Sep 2, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} did you take it Dan ? {image}
hi every1 @ james16, hi Mike
based on the usdjpy 1h chart u posted quoting Dan, actually i was also following the trade, though paper trading. i like to knw, if u were to take this trade, would you have entered b4 the brk of the BRN after the brk of the buob and the trend line or would you also wait for the price to rise and close above the BRN(99.000)? thanx

Jibson
Still trying to get to meet myself...
  • #127,615
  • Sep 2, 2013 12:29pm Sep 2, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} did you take it Dan ? {image}
Hi Mike, I missed it .... I fell asleep ! . Ill be looking for an entry on the daily now. Oh well. Interesting that I dont feel an urge anymore to jump into a trade anymore even if the setup isnt right or I missed it like in this case ... Im becoming patient

Cheers
Dan
  • #127,616
  • Sep 2, 2013 4:00pm Sep 2, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} did you take it Dan ? {image}
Mike the pattern developed on daily timeframe. Isnt the hourly timeframe too small?
  • #127,617
  • Sep 2, 2013 4:27pm Sep 2, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting jibson007
{quote} hi every1 @ james16, hi Mike based on the usdjpy 1h chart u posted quoting Dan, actually i was also following the trade, though paper trading. i like to knw, if u were to take this trade, would you have entered b4 the brk of the BRN after the brk of the buob and the trend line or would you also wait for the price to rise and close above the BRN(99.000)? thanx Jibson
Hi mate, I personally would of taken the break of the BUOB. Reason why is because the bar itself closed outside the pattern, if this really is a breakout then this would be the starting point of that breakout. Keep in mind the BRN was about 100 pips away from the trendline ... plenty of room for a trade on the hourly. The BRN would be an area to watch out for and decide on how to manage your trade e.g. move stops to breakeven, partially close or just take full profit etc. Anyway this is just my thoughts on how I would go about trading it, best to wait for Mike to answer your question
  • #127,618
  • Sep 2, 2013 4:29pm Sep 2, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting Martin600
{quote} Mike the pattern developed on daily timeframe. Isnt the hourly timeframe too small?
Personally I would drop down just one TF e.g. daily setup looking for PA on Daily or 4h. 4h setup looking for PA on 4hr or 1hr. But it really depends on the situation. The above it not a hard rule that I use just a guide. Again just my own opinion here.

Cheers
Dan
  • #127,619
  • Sep 2, 2013 6:31pm Sep 2, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting dan89
{quote} Hi mate, I personally would of taken the break of the BUOB. Reason why is because the bar itself closed outside the pattern, if this really is a breakout then this would be the starting point of that breakout. Keep in mind the BRN was about 100 pips away from the trendline ... plenty of room for a trade on the hourly. The BRN would be an area to watch out for and decide on how to manage your trade e.g. move stops to breakeven, partially close or just take full profit etc. Anyway this is just my thoughts on how I would go about trading it,...
Yep I trade the large majority of my bars on a break. It just keeps me consistent and fits my style


Thanks dan


Mike
  • #127,620
  • Sep 2, 2013 6:32pm Sep 2, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting dan89
{quote} Personally I would drop down just one TF e.g. daily setup looking for PA on Daily or 4h. 4h setup looking for PA on 4hr or 1hr. But it really depends on the situation. The above it not a hard rule that I use just a guide. Again just my own opinion here. Cheers Dan
Right again. Generally i drop one timeframe, but it's not impossible for me to drop two. That buob was a great size and made complete sense. The more trouble you'll get in is with bar size, or with bad patterns. That TL was VERY exact

Best
Mike
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