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AUD/USD

  • #63,601
  • Sep 2, 2013 6:53am Sep 2, 2013 6:53am
looks like nzd/usd is a sell on h1. candle not closed yet. A rejection of an hourly ptecz,swing high on 29.aug. plus rejection of the 200ema. I normally trade h4tf which closes in 70 mins time. But I will short when H1 candle closes if above condition all met
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #63,602
  • Sep 2, 2013 6:57am Sep 2, 2013 6:57am
Quoting Fx-gtg
{quote} closing ALL. 100 pips on aussi 100 pips kiwi thanks bears.
well done, probably at the top
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #63,603
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:10am Sep 2, 2013 7:10am
took a short scalp @.7816 now.sl .7845 tp 50 pips
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #63,604
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:29am Sep 2, 2013 7:29am
Quoting pips29
looks like nzd/usd is a sell on h1. candle not closed yet. A rejection of an hourly ptecz,swing high on 29.aug. plus rejection of the 200ema. I normally trade h4tf which closes in 70 mins time. But I will short when H1 candle closes if above condition all met
I would disagree with you about NZDUSD on H1.
ADX suggests bulls are firmly in control
also Williams%r suggests we are just beginning to rise up.... currently stuck at the -50% (something I like to call a sucker zone since, market will reflect as if NZDUSD has met resistance when in fact its just a scheme of things to come...) further up till Williams%r reaches -20% then I would say the bull run maybe over.
right now H1 the bull run are still in control.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130902.1226.gmt.nzdusd.h1.png Size: 40 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #63,605
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:41am Sep 2, 2013 7:41am
Quoting pips29
took a short scalp @.7816 now.sl .7845 tp 50 pips
I got in too @ .7825
I think it should settle back into the 0.7750~0.7800 range before we can deciding direction again. For now 28 AUG resistance is just below 0.7845.
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,606
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:49am Sep 2, 2013 7:49am
im not the only one whos calling for a bottom on AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

AUDUSD Forecast for week 2-6 of september
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/for...&time=2013-242

NZDUSD Forecast for week of 2-6 of September
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/for...&time=2013-242
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #63,607
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:56am Sep 2, 2013 7:56am
Quoting fxtyrant
im not the only one whos calling for a bottom on AUDUSD and NZDUSD. AUDUSD Forecast for week 2-6 of september http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/for...&time=2013-242 NZDUSD Forecast for week of 2-6 of September http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/for...&time=2013-242
But dear, analysts only give suggestion and earn on company wages, they don't post that they did a trade or will do a trade or we do not know if even they are trading what they say... .here we are trading.
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,608
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:58am Sep 2, 2013 7:58am
Quoting dormin
{quote} But dear, analysts only give suggestion and earn on company wages, they don't post that they did a trade or will do a trade or we do not know if even they are trading what they say... .here we are trading.
and here I trade too
shall we compare performance? I think not....

and ive already proven much on my fundamental analysis, literally whooped the bears ass who stayed bear prior to the Friday market close.... I knew China PMI is gona be the game changer and its bound to be better than expect...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,609
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:03am Sep 2, 2013 8:03am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} and here I trade too shall we compare performance? I think not.... and ive already proven much on my fundamental analysis, literally whooped the bears ass who stayed bear prior to the Friday market close.... I knew China PMI is gona be the game changer and its bound to be better than expect...
Still holding your longs looking for .902 first target?
  • #63,610
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:06am Sep 2, 2013 8:06am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Still holding your longs looking for .902 first target?
yep and I see potential of AUDUSD reaching as high as 0.92 to complete the Williams%r Swing
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,611
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:08am Sep 2, 2013 8:08am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} and here I trade too shall we compare performance? I think not.... and ive already proven much on my fundamental analysis, literally whooped the bears ass who stayed bear prior to the Friday market close.... I knew China PMI is gona be the game changer and its bound to be better than expect...
I didn't speak about comparison or ask your performance, that's a low priority topic for full time traders (otherwise they wouldn't be full time), we can put micros and make 100's of pips or put standard's and multi standard's and make 10's of pip's.

I think today's move on aud/usd has been because of the gap and then the building approvals that came out extremely impressive and the nzd and aud are sisters, they follow each other wherever each one goes.

I'm waiting for the FUNDY to start losing gas after a while and maybe we are back to re-testing the support.

anyways.. i may be wrong.. it's just my probability and your probability in clash (that's market volatility)

USD is on holiday today, so i expect consolidation now until the Sydney session will start tomorrow.

China PMI was just neutral and as speculated, there was nothing there for today.
Nice review of the gap, if you had speculated it on weekend.
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,612
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:13am Sep 2, 2013 8:13am
h4 aud/usd rejection at round number plus inverted hammer close. very boring so far
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #63,613
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:16am Sep 2, 2013 8:16am
Quoting dormin
{quote} I didn't speak about comparison or ask your performance, that's a low priority topic for full time traders (otherwise they wouldn't be full time), we can put micros and make 100's of pips or put standard's and multi standard's and make 10's of pip's.[b] I think today's move on aud/usd has been because of the gap and then the building approvals that came out extremely impressive and the nzd and aud are sisters, they follow each other wherever each one goes. I'm waiting for the FUNDY to start losing gas after a while and maybe we are back...
Well you also forgot the fact that China came out with Impressive PMI and the fact that its been weeks we've been hearing Capital restrictions in China being relaxed...
Who do you think is gona benefit most??

If you really thought China's PMI was neutral... explain to me how EURUSD and GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, all these Risk Currency Shot up today??
its not like Europe or UK had good news... infact Europe had bad news about market losing some votes....
China's PMI, lead to a HUGE risk-on Monday flow, that led a lot of retailers to begin longing every risk trades...... not just the AUDUSD or NZDUSD....
Risk-on Sentiment is back for the time being.... regardless if US is gona taper or not.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #63,614
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:19am Sep 2, 2013 8:19am
Quoting pips29
h4 aud/usd rejection at round number plus inverted hammer close. very boring so far
if your ready to hold till Sydney clock ticks after 9am ... i really love that time, something crazy happens on aud/usd & nzd/usd there hehe
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,615
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:19am Sep 2, 2013 8:19am
Quoting pips29
h4 aud/usd rejection at round number plus inverted hammer close. very boring so far
sorry bro... if AUDUSD doesn't fall on what you think is an inverted hammer....
then its not quite an inverted hammer, body is not a bearish one.
its a bullish one...
I have open of that candle at 0.89838 and close at 0.89911
if it doesn't fall then it confirms what you think as an inverted hammer as a BULL FLAG!
don't get caught out.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,616
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:31am Sep 2, 2013 8:31am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Well you also forgot the fact that China came out with Impressive PMI and the fact that its been weeks we've been hearing Capital restrictions in China being relaxed... Who do you think is gona benefit most?? If you really thought China's PMI was neutral... explain to me how EURUSD and GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, all these Risk Currency Shot up today?? its not like Europe or UK had good news... infact Europe had bad news about market losing some votes.... China's PMI, lead to a HUGE risk-on Monday flow, that led a lot of retailers to begin longing...
Thanks for your insight, highly appreciate that.

There is something coming up 4am EST tommorrow.... maybe we have some suprise there ...
Tuesday
Retail Sales
High
4:00 AM
AUD
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,617
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:37am Sep 2, 2013 8:37am
Quoting dormin
{quote} Thanks for your insight, highly appreciate that. There is something coming up 4am EST tommorrow.... maybe we have some suprise there ... Tuesday Retail Sales High 4:00 AM AUD
hmmm... let me head on to TR Eikon and see what the poll is saying.... but all I can say is Tomorrow we have RBA Rate decision.... Prior to the China PMI and the good housing data from Australia... the Probability of a rate cut is at 7%.... im guessing its at 0% now...
Bloomberg also reported RBA wont be cutting rate... but the wildcard is gona be what the governor of RBA is going to say... im expecting him to be optimistic by saying China's recovery is an encouraging sign for Australia, something within those lines... and you'll see AUDUSD continue its bounce...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,618
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:42am Sep 2, 2013 8:42am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} hmmm... let me head on to TR Eikon and see what the poll is saying.... but all I can say is Tomorrow we have RBA Rate decision.... Prior to the China PMI and the good housing data from Australia... the Probability of a rate cut is at 7%.... im guessing its at 0% now... Bloomberg also reported RBA wont be cutting rate... but the wildcard is gona be what the governor of RBA is going to say... im expecting him to be optimistic by saying China's recovery is an encouraging sign for Australia, something within those lines... and you'll see AUDUSD...
I'm beginning to think so too about that tomorrow. Or maybe the RBA may put in a surprise and increase it .25% . They surely need the AUD/USD to gain again, because the weak AUD may be causing price rises and also in petrol there in Australia.
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,619
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:13am Sep 2, 2013 9:13am
Quoting dormin
{quote} I'm beginning to think so too about that tomorrow. Or maybe the RBA may put in a surprise and increase it .25% . They surely need the AUD/USD to gain again, because the weak AUD may be causing price rises and also in petrol there in Australia.
uhhh no.... Australia is an exporter of raw material, coal and fuel.... so really Australia doesn't care if oil is at such high price.... besides the weakened AUDUSD is already enough attraction for a lot of foreign importers to buy Australian Exported goods...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,620
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:26am Sep 2, 2013 9:26am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} uhhh no.... Australia is an exporter of raw material, coal and fuel.... so really Australia doesn't care if oil is at such high price.... besides the weakened AUDUSD is already enough attraction for a lot of foreign importers to buy Australian Exported goods...
Doesn't a low AUDUSD affect Aussies at the pump though? Serious question
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