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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #201
  • Sep 1, 2013 2:26am Sep 1, 2013 2:26am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I think she has already decided to. Either ways fundamentals don't play a part for me. Price has a way of factoring in the fundamentals, at least on the more general front. So if the USD must weaken, the technicals will conform to it. For instance if the Euro shoots off on Monday, I am happy because being a technical trader I see a fake out setup working out and the guys who follow fundamentals think price shot off because the USD is weakening as the US military decides to wage yet another war. Perhaps in some other part of the world, someone's...


Thanks Master G for such a wonderful explanation, I quite agree that being on the extreme of the technical still makes you as good a trader as you could ever be, I personally used to trade the news a lot until I realized it was too emotional and further studies showed me sometimes because big London whales could get news before smaller fishes it may be priced in already and make us retail trader vulnerable.

I now stick mostly to technicals but also think its wise to be on the look out for major news releases even though certainly the chart tells the whole story since what we see on the charts is simply human emotions , what people perceive the value of a currency to be most times already taking into consideration fundamentals.
Thank you so much for your help, also do you suggest that trading this method on lower time frames (30 mins - 1hr) could be successful?
I would rather not go below 4 hrs.
10 pips a day keeps poverty away
  • #202
  • Sep 1, 2013 2:38am Sep 1, 2013 2:38am
many thanks people for all the charts and learning its a great insite to tradeing
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #203
  • Sep 1, 2013 3:09am Sep 1, 2013 3:09am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I would be on the lookout of a further confirmation when the markets open. But overall I like this setup. g.

Could You please explain what are the further confirmation that you looking for.......................
80% effort, 20% luck
  • #204
  • Sep 1, 2013 3:27am Sep 1, 2013 3:27am
HI, great thread for interesting idea of fake breakout, I am an Dow theory player in longer time frame and look for increase entries.
What do you think about this Gold short entry and are profit targets realiables ?

thanks Greg
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  • #205
  • Sep 1, 2013 4:00am Sep 1, 2013 4:00am
Hi Ghous,
AOA
Thank you with your enlightened views about the market. I took EURUSD short for 100 pips after going through your thread on 29th August. Much obliged with your generosity to share your knowledge.
I have started to look at the market from a completely different perspective as I have been mainly scalping.
Just wanted to know what elements you are looking for confirmation of the trade?
  • #206
  • Edited 4:29am Sep 1, 2013 4:19am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting srt
EU 4H & Daily {image} {image}
Very well Srt! Your chart is explaining very good.
Quoting KOS-fx
{quote} Dear Iqbal, It seems to be your entry was little bit aggressive.. If my thinking is correct you didn't wait that fake out bar to be closed. and even there are several pull back from FTA to HHR. How you determine your SL (Did you reduced it from intial value??????). Even this example also shows that FTA and breathing space is to be considered (for high probability trade) when you enter a trade... Kos {image}
Yes! I am trying to trade aggressively. Because some of traders blow my mind with their style of trading. Anyhow.
I already know you will ask about my short trade. How and why I have taken this.
Look! at the Srt's chart and mine. I had posted a naked chart last time. When I plot the line at 1.34, it hide my stop loss. Mean my stop loss is behind the line. You can see the resistance there. That's why the trade was so powerful.
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Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #207
  • Sep 1, 2013 4:23am Sep 1, 2013 4:23am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Fabulous charts Quidsey! How many of these did you take? g.
Well none , at least not using a D1 SFP.

Really just wanted to know if my thinking on these set-ups was in line with what you guys are discussing here. It was also an exercise in finding out how many set-ups we can expect to see over a certain period. I understand better now why you trade so many pairs.
  • #208
  • Sep 1, 2013 5:47am Sep 1, 2013 5:47am
Quoting realclick
{quote} Thanks Master G for such a wonderful explanation, I quite agree that being on the extreme of the technical still makes you as good a trader as you could ever be, I personally used to trade the news a lot until I realized it was too emotional and further studies showed me sometimes because big London whales could get news before smaller fishes it may be priced in already and make us retail trader vulnerable. I now stick mostly to technicals but also think its wise to be on the look out for major news releases even though certainly the chart...
Me Neither. I don't venture below 4H myself.

But I think with enough practice you could take this down to as low as 1 min. It made me smile when I read Takisd saying he executes a similar strategy but on the 1-5 min time frame. Its not that hard to believe when you escape the one dimensional ideas of trading systems and apply yourself to the flexibility of the a "mindset". Because trading fake outs is more about the mindset than anything else, there is no doubt that you can use the phenomena your own way on any time frame and any market.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #209
  • Sep 1, 2013 5:52am Sep 1, 2013 5:52am
Quoting KOS-fx
{quote} Could You please explain what are the further confirmation that you looking for.......................
I will be talking about this more in the coming week. But the basic idea is, that while a fake out bar triggers a trade on the daily, for the lower time frames a more conservative approach would require further confirmations of the S/R qualities of the HHR/LLS as proven by the subsequenct action after the fake out bar forms. The trigger then, isn't the fake out bar itself but rather one of the next few bars that go on to test the HHR/LLS again. The more aggressive entry via the fake out bar directly won't be overruled but this multiple confirmations idea appeals to me more and more and most likely the method I will be adopting for my lower time frame trades.

An an example, here is the UJ 4H chart showing an initial fake out followed by a quick confirmation bar which can serve as the trigger to a trade.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #210
  • Sep 1, 2013 5:57am Sep 1, 2013 5:57am
Quoting Xarius
HI, great thread for interesting idea of fake breakout, I am an Dow theory player in longer time frame and look for increase entries. What do you think about this Gold short entry and are profit targets realiables ? thanks Greg {image}
I would have preferred a more accelerated attempt to breach the HHR there, so it wasn't a trade for me. But obviously it was off of a nice HHR and I also had the 150 EMA confluence going.

Anyway, if I were in this trade I'd be pretty happy seeing that close below the 1400 RN. With a stoop above the 1400, I would now be looking for price to hit the trouble area marked in blue and eventually the second blue region.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #211
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:00am Sep 1, 2013 6:00am
Quoting shaan
Hi Ghous, AOA Thank you with your enlightened views about the market. I took EURUSD short for 100 pips after going through your thread on 29th August. Much obliged with your generosity to share your knowledge. I have started to look at the market from a completely different perspective as I have been mainly scalping. Just wanted to know what elements you are looking for confirmation of the trade?
Hey Shaan,

I am looking for a nice and deep HHR/LLS preferably lining up with other confluence factors such as a Round number or a Moving average. I am looking for price to accelerate into the HHR and receive a noticeable rejection which marks the fake out for me. I am then looking to get in either at the close of the fake out bar or in case of close further away from the HHR/LLS I am waiting with a pending order near the HHR/LLS in case of a pull back. I also require decent space for the trade to thrive in and to ensure stress free trade management.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #212
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:02am Sep 1, 2013 6:02am
Quoting asim.iqbal
{quote} Very well Srt! Your chart is explaining very good. {quote} Yes! I am trying to trade aggressively. Because some of traders blow my mind with their style of trading. Anyhow. I already know you will ask about my short trade. How and why I have taken this. Look! at the Srt's chart and mine. I had posted a naked chart last time. When I plot the line at 1.34, it hide my stop loss. Mean my stop loss is behind the line. You can see the resistance there. That's why the trade was so powerful. {image} {image}
So in a nutshell, this wasn't a fake out trade as I see it.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #213
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:03am Sep 1, 2013 6:03am
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Well none , at least not using a D1 SFP. Really just wanted to know if my thinking on these set-ups was in line with what you guys are discussing here. It was also an exercise in finding out how many set-ups we can expect to see over a certain period. I understand better now why you trade so many pairs.
Ahh I see. Yeah the more the pairs the better.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #214
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:05am Sep 1, 2013 6:05am
Quoting ghous
{quote} So in a nutshell, this wasn't a fake out trade as I see it. g.

Thanks for the confirmation.. My head was bang searching for fake out...
80% effort, 20% luck
  • #215
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:51am Sep 1, 2013 6:51am
.
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  • #216
  • Sep 1, 2013 8:50am Sep 1, 2013 8:50am
Quoting ghous
When I started off nothing seemed more thrilling than watching charts. Day trading was an obvious attraction. I would vomit at the thought of having to take a trade or less in a week. 10 trades a day was more like it. One of the major reasons why this business takes so long to succeed at is because of the time you need to spend discovering your true "comfort zone" as opposed to your perceived "comfort zone". It took me a while to realize I wasn't meant to day trade. In spite of this I have traded this fake out method on the lower time frames...
Ghous, you said here that "The human race will need to evolve into something totally different to stop order flow and market dynamics to work the way they have been working for hundreds of years."
This means this strategy of trading fake outs from swing points will work in every year? This strategy also worked before the financial crisis from 2008? Did you make backtesting for the period before 2008? You also said something about this fake outs work in sideways markets. If I see a pair is in a strong trend I shouldn't look anymore at historical swing points for fake outs because it's possible price wouldn't respect that level?
  • #217
  • Edited 9:13am Sep 1, 2013 9:01am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting cuchuflito
This is a very interesting method to me. Only con is set ups are rare but you will be need only 3 or 4 set ups in daily chart to make whole month.Talking about System, Set-ups (opportunities)..etc. Is anybody making Money with this? How about we compare results as to: R : positive or negative. Amount of trades a week/month. Percentage winners...etc. Like that we can find out if itīs worth the effort of even reading the posts,we can see how many people are successfull (and how much).. We can talk in terms of R...so nobody needs to disclose how much Money they have...or Show their accounts. R as defined by the Initial risk per trade. Eg. I risk exacly 1% per trade, as per stop value (Oanda, no lots). So far 2 trades this week. 1 winner, one looser. R positive : 0,16 Obviously itīs a useless sample, after ten, better 30, and better 100 trades I will be able to draw usefull conclusions. Comparing each others results would help us all to improve, and learn from the best perfrormers.. My 2 Cents worth.. enjoy life Kos
Backtesting gives you the answer if you make money or not. I made backtesting in the last years on the daily charts and it works for me. I didn't make backtesting though for the period before 2008. I plan to do this too but the results of the backtesting won't tell you if you can make money or not because you may take other setups I didn't take or have a trade management completely different.
Just because someone else is winning or losing doesn't mean you will also make or lose money.
  • #218
  • Edited 7:32pm Sep 1, 2013 9:07am | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting str8
{quote} Ghous, you said here that "The human race will need to evolve into something totally different to stop order flow and market dynamics to work the way they have been working for hundreds of years." This means this strategy of trading fake outs from swing points will work in every year? This strategy also worked before the financial crisis from 2008? Did you make backtesting for the period before 2008? You also said something about this fake outs work in sideways markets. If I see a pair is in a strong trend I shouldn't look anymore at historical...
Of course it will, humans will still have Hope, Greed, Fear & Despair, as long as they are human.
  • #219
  • Sep 1, 2013 9:28am Sep 1, 2013 9:28am
Not the best example but hey.....

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You'll find this stuff happening all the way back, and I mean way way back.
  • #220
  • Sep 1, 2013 9:47am Sep 1, 2013 9:47am
Quoting asim.iqbal
The support lines. Ha ha! The trade will start when the market close. (According to my broker's time) Hope You Enjoy the next week! {image}
Please check with other broker feeds. In Ava and Alpari, the close is below the LLS, thus perhaps it is not actually a fakey.
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