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  • #381
  • Edited 3:36pm Aug 30, 2013 1:35pm | Edited 3:36pm
As far as my methodology is concerned, I can't do anything with USD/CAD at the moment. The daily chart has this pair in an area of too much congestion so I'd personally wait for it to break up or down (preferably down ...I've got DVDs that want me to buy them).

Breaking down what I looked at:
8-hour RSI is clean but it is right at support so RSI needs to either bounce or breach.
4-hour is approaching support (bearish).
2-hour just bounced off support (bullish) but it's in a narrow range.
Hourly has breached support (bearish) but that's relatively meaningless going into a long weekend.

Looking at the daily chart below, the daily bear RSI trend was broken some time ago but I have no firm conviction with regard to the bull trends as the parallel to the dominant support (dark blue) diverges away from what should be the dominant resistance (light blue) and it's actually in a narrow ascending range (purple), so I'd concentrate on that purple range for now until it breaks out of it. 61.5 and 70 have been significant levels in the past and it did bounce off 61.5 which is bullish so both those levels are something to watch as well.

Taken as a whole, all the trend lines are bullish, plus RSI over 50 is a bullish indicator, so it just might break to the upside without a significant pullback (if any), but I don't like to guess.

Price-wise it could be in the green bull channel drawn from the weekly chart or it could be in the red bear channel. It looks like it has ended the day with a spinning top with the body at yesterday's high which indicates a possible change of trend but we need to see Tuesday's candle (since Monday is a holiday) for confirmation. Sitting just above the 76.4% with a non-directional candle is not helping matters either.

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If I were forced to play USD/CAD, I would stick to scalping using 5-minute RSI trends with hourly RSI directional confirmation and stay away from any buy-and-hold strategies until I see more clarity in the daily chart.

I can certainly get behind your chart and 1.07 being a sell zone. I'm a firm believer in the 1.27% extension target. It works consistently with gold for example.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #382
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:01am Sep 1, 2013 6:01am
Hi guys Welcome Sept.
1st week of Sept pairs that need to be watched or plucked
I ask myself which one is overripe pig that needs trimming and without a slightest hesitation is GBP/AUD
This pair is on study up trend in clear definition what trend is clear up thrust without much retrace.
When looking at GA we try to see how majors deal with GU and AU and to make a valid trade on GA we need to see weakness on GU and Strength on Aussie on AU.
As long as AU is falling and GU is going up stay clear of GA cross but watch it.Its a energy packed time bomb when explodes could easily drop 500pips in 1week.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #383
  • Edited 6:51am Sep 1, 2013 6:27am | Edited 6:51am
EG is starting to look good for long.Key level 84 previous sopport
Watching this as well.
Note that I use weekly and daily charts.Most cases weekly for trade decisions.For new comers to this thread I am a swing trader.
Just a reminder that when good opportunity comes usually 2-3 times a month to build nice positions one can make 8-10% of monthly target hence no need to over trade.
Nice article about trading.Best teachers of trading are animals no kidding.Please read

What Crocodiles Can Teach You About Trading
I love the article so much that I consciously try think like a croc
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #384
  • Sep 1, 2013 7:17am Sep 1, 2013 7:17am
This post by HDA is priceless so I am posting it in its entirety from UCad thread so I always have it on my journal.
Once again HDA thank you and I hope you visit again on my journal.

@Davit:


I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post.

Davit - you are a good guy - so I'm going to share with you what I, please note, what I consider to be stress free in terms of how to analyze trading any of the crosses. I say again - this is my way. I will be writing this in its simpliest form, so please understand, that it is not a reflection of how much I think you know and understand, but for the many others that may read this, whom may have a lesser understanding of crosses, forex and trading.

HERE WE GO:

To trade crosses, you have to only focus on both MAJORS of the crosses - we know that.

For example - GBP/CAD is a cross - so we have to watch GBP/USD (major) and we have to watch USD/CAD (major).

The base currency for the GBP/CAD is the CAD - so with that in mind - the base currency has a significant effect on the GBP/CAD pair.

KEY THING TO NOTE:

If the (major) USD/CAD, with the CAD being the base currency for the GBP/CAD, we have to pay close attention to the (major) (USD/CAD) as it significantly will affect the GBP/CAD because the CAD is the base currency for the GBP/CAD pair.

With the basics out of the way - here is what I use to help my analysis, keeping it simple and stress free.

The analysis must heavily be focused on the Majors and not the crosses.

By that I mean:

Where is the GBP/USD in terms of the Supply or Demand or Neutral Zone?
Where is the USD/CAD in terms of the Supply or Demand or Neutral Zone?

Please see past posts as a reminder Re: GBP/USD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post6870449
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post6867618

At the end of last week, Friday, August 16, 2013, the GBP/USD just entered the SUPPLY ZONE 1.5660.
So we now would be expecting the GBP/USD to fall with the key ingredient, PATIENCE.

At the end of last week, Friday, August 16, 2013, the USD/CAD was at the NEUTRAL ZONE 1.0300
So we did not know what to expect in terms of direction for the USD/CAD for this trading week so with the key ingredient, PATIENCE, we would have to wait to place a trade on the GBP/CAD.

This is the key to trading the crosses profitably:
Wait until Both Majors are at the same zone and then you buy or sell the cross.

Therefore: Since both GBP/USD and USD/CAD are not at the same zone be it supply or demand at the start of this trading week - you would not place a trade on the crosses until they are both lined up.

What I am telling you now is priceless:

The GBP is at the SUPPLY ZONE and the USD/CAD is about to enter the SUPPLY ZONE - a shorting opportunity on the GBP/CAD is about to present itself because they are both at the SUPPLY ZONE.

But we need an entry for the cross - how do we find that entry?


The (majors) GBP/USD and USD/CAD will tell us.

Remember -
The CAD is the base currency for the GBP/CAD, so your focus now only needs to be on the USD/CAD.

Sellers are comfortably lined up at 1.0550 between 1.0590 (SUPPLY) on the USD/CAD.

Now for every 50 pip move on the USD/CAD - the crosses move 100pips

So the USD/CAD currently trading at 1.0510 now has 40pips to go to get to 1.0550 where sellers are camped out which would be an 80 pip move on the GBP/CAD up from its current price 1.6395 as of typing this at 7:40pm Eastern, Thursday, August 22, 2013.


So lets focus on entry.

If the sellers are camped out at 1.0550 to 1.0590 on the USD/CAD we should look for a short entry on the GBP/CAD between:

USD/CAD Sellers 1.0550 - 1.0510 Current Market Price = 40pips distance x 2 = 80pip entry price GBP/CAD
USD/CAD Sellers 1.0585 - 1.0510 Current Market Price = 75pips distance x 2 = 150pip entry price GBP/CAD

Therefore one could look to short the GBP/CAD between 1.6475 and 1.6545

GBP/CAD Current Price 1.6395 + 80pips = 1.6475 Entry price
GBP/CAD Current Price 1.6395 + 150pips = 1.6545 Entry price

I hope this explanation helps you to understand how I look at entering a trade on the CROSSES.

So with all that information I have just shared with you - you can take from it whatever you may find helpful to you.

Yours Respectfully,
HDA
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #385
  • Sep 1, 2013 11:45am Sep 1, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Davit
This post by HDA is priceless so I am posting it in its entirety from UCad thread so I always have it on my journal. Once again HDA thank you and I hope you visit again on my journal. @Davit: I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post. Davit - you are a good guy - so I'm going to share with you what I, please note, what I consider to be stress free in terms of how to analyze trading any of the crosses....
Good information & good call by HDA.
Chart below shows how well it worked.
Thanks!
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  • #386
  • Edited 7:05pm Sep 1, 2013 7:02pm | Edited 7:05pm
GBP/USD bounced off price-action and RSI daily support lines. I would think 1.57 will be seen again shortly and I will not be shorting any Pound crosses at this point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #387
  • Sep 2, 2013 1:08am Sep 2, 2013 1:08am
Quoting KADC
GBP/USD bounced off price-action and RSI daily support lines. I would think 1.57 will be seen again shortly and I will not be shorting any Pound crosses at this point. {image}

I agree KADC
With important news coming tonight and I suspect its going to be positive (Hope not) we can see 157 again easily.
My focus is on GA. Waiting until it reaches max sell zone 1.74+ could be next 10days.
Right now just accumulating DD on GC trade.Perhaps my biggest blunder so far.I have enough funds until 1.80 and hopefully it turns around soon.
I did learn great deal from that mistake.I should of paid lot more attention where price was.Anyway trading is evolutionary.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #388
  • Edited 3:41am Sep 2, 2013 3:28am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I agree KADC With important news coming tonight and I suspect its going to be positive (Hope not) we can see 157 again easily. My focus is on GA. Waiting until it reaches max sell zone 1.74+ could be next 10days. Right now just accumulating DD on GC trade.Perhaps my biggest blunder so far.I have enough funds until 1.80 and hopefully it turns around soon. I did learn great deal from that mistake.I should of paid lot more attention where price was.Anyway trading is evolutionary. Regards
I really shouldn't have traded tonight as I didn't have any strong triggers, but I was frustrated by gold hitting my target exactly and not being able to place an order because New York is closed and I can't trade spot. I can only hope that gold hovers around Friday's close when the NYMEX opens so I can still get back in at a decent level. Silver said nuts to that and cleared the close after its pull back and kept on going but finally stalled out. That I don't mind so much as I'm happy with the amount of my current silver position in USLV (tripple silver ETF).

You were right about the Pound news which I hope helped your trades. I went long GBP/NZD from 1.9890, the 61.8% Fibonacci which triggered my order just before the PMI news shot it up. I figured there was a scalping opportunity despite not having a strong RSI signal and I admit I got lucky with the timing. The trade has come down from the boost up now and I should have gotten out at the 38.2% at 1.99625, but I foolishly held out for 2.000 to be hit again. Well, I've set a trailing stop now and I'll hope for the best.

I'm long EUR/AUD from 1.470 when daily RSI hit support and hourly RSI had bottomed. The hourly RSI support gave way after I was already in the trade but not enough to break the daily RSI support, so I've put a trailing stop on it too and I'll leave it alone since the Euro is still rising and hope for the best here as well. [addendum: EUR/AUD also hit (or very close to at least) the long-term daily price support which I didn't even look at on my own charts until DailyFX pointed it out in a tweet a moment ago. That made me realize I did not go through my usual routine of checking all my charts across all time frames before entering a trade -- clearly my head is not in the game.]


I'm leaving it with just one finger in Aussie and one in Kiwi since the markets can be unpredictable when closing down for a US bank holiday and I'm not looking at their other crosses lest I get tempted to commit to more trades against my instinct to leave well enough alone.

I've still got no conviction about where the Loonie is headed the way my system works so no CAD crosses for me right now.

I'm late to the Yen party, but took a long on EUR/JPY from the minimal pullback to 131.1 because it was the first of the major Yen crosses to give me a minor reversal on 5-min RSI. Also both USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are right at daily RSI resistance so I don't want to get into those anyway until I see if they break up or get knocked back down. Not a very good technical reason to enter that trade, but it's in the money (just barely), and again, I know I did it out of frustration from not being able to trade gold.

This is why I need a wife or someone to smack me when I start getting loose with my own trading rules due to fatigue or frustration. I do well enough as long as I stick to my rules but I lack the discipline necessary to do nothing if I'm the least bit fatigued or frustrated. I'm aware of my problem in this area, but I've yet to figure out what to do about it.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #389
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:36am Sep 3, 2013 8:36am
Got lots of set ups waiting.Its ok to wait.I rather wait then be early.
UJ is beginning to get interesting for shorts.It needs to go 101 to be a valid short for me.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #390
  • Sep 3, 2013 8:42am Sep 3, 2013 8:42am
Quoting KADC
{quote} . I'm long EUR/AUD from 1.470 .
I hope you got out because its approaching 1.45 fast.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #391
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:36am Sep 4, 2013 7:36am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Bryno You are doing fantastic.Feeling confident is great because it gives you a possibility that we can make it on this business where winners in general are few. Your Aussie buy zone is spot on.Much depends what happens on Sept 18.If Feds reduce QE I can see Aussie going lot further down but if not I think Aussie will rebound perhaps back to 92 previous resistance. My feeling and intuition is telling me that Feds won't do much in Sept because unemployment numbers are still weak.Anyway keep that in mind. ABCD is spot on however price usually...
Hey Davit, thanks...yeah, I am hitting it hard this month already...taking on some drawdown at the moment but gotta give the trades room to grow. That abcd scenario on the AU did not form at all...Hope you got in though on your buy limits from last week down towards that oversold edge?

I am being aggressive now, as a form of learning...will probably tone it back though in the weeks to come as I develop more and more patience for the best setups, and probably spend more time on the daily charts...like you do and look for the REALLY overbought/oversold conditions.

Thanks for the tips on the FED this month and the swissy. The Syrian issue is looming as well...

I am a bit behind on your thread here, so I will take a look and catch up. Good traders here, like KADC.

Thank you,
Bryan
  • #392
  • Sep 4, 2013 4:34pm Sep 4, 2013 4:34pm
I feel that the GBPCAD is ready to go down on the weekly chart and on lower timeframes.


limit order to sell at 1.6412
stop loss 1.6452
trailing stop loss

expires in 4 hours, because i want a spike into the zone on the 1h chart

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  • #393
  • Sep 4, 2013 5:41pm Sep 4, 2013 5:41pm
Quoting Starry
I feel that the GBPCAD is ready to go down on the weekly chart and on lower timeframes. limit order to sell at 1.6412 stop loss 1.6452 trailing stop loss expires in 4 hours, because i want a spike into the zone on the 1h chart {image} {image}

Hi Starry
Good to see you post here Welcome!
I have 15 short positions on GC on 2 accounts.
Currently 15% DD but manageable.I did make mistake getting in early but 64 is great number.
Anyway I have until 9/24 for this trades to hit TP.If not then I'll wait more.I am getting positive swap so does not hurt to wait as long as its not shooting up.
If you look at Monthly GC has been in channel since 2009 so I don't expect that to change specially that no economy is currently dominating including British.
Sept has traditionally been strong performing month for pound but could change dramatically.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #394
  • Sep 4, 2013 5:52pm Sep 4, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Hey Davit, thanks...yeah, I am hitting it hard this month already...taking on some drawdown at the moment but gotta give the trades room to grow. That abcd scenario on the AU did not form at all...Hope you got in though on your buy limits from last week down towards that oversold edge? I am being aggressive now, as a form of learning...will probably tone it back though in the weeks to come as I develop more and more patience for the best setups, and probably spend more time on the daily charts...like you do and look for the REALLY overbought/oversold...
GC trades has kind of limited my trade capacity.I missed lot of great set ups which I posted here and all have been very profitable only that I didn't take the trades because of funds limitation.
I have UJ pending shorts at 100.50 101.
EG long at 84 and price is only 50 pips away.Great opportunity
UC 1.060 1.0650 1.070 shorts
I have others but they are sitting at the bench for now
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #395
  • Sep 4, 2013 5:58pm Sep 4, 2013 5:58pm
Starry and others check out EG
Great harmonic set up AB=CD
Price is hovering 8450 and I need that 50 pips down and I may get it.
Another chart showing previous demand zone
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #396
  • Sep 4, 2013 6:41pm Sep 4, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Starry Good to see you post here Welcome! I have 15 short positions on GC on 2 accounts. Currently 15% DD but manageable.I did make mistake getting in early but 64 is great number. Anyway I have until 9/24 for this trades to hit TP.If not then I'll wait more.I am getting positive swap so does not hurt to wait as long as its not shooting up. If you look at Monthly GC has been in channel since 2009 so I don't expect that to change specially that no economy is currently dominating including British. Sept has traditionally been strong performing...

Thanks! Thats good to know im not alone in my trade I decided to get in anyways, it looks like it is now going down. Ill see !
  • #397
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:03pm Sep 4, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting Davit
Starry and others check out EG Great harmonic set up AB=CD Price is hovering 8450 and I need that 50 pips down and I may get it. Another chart showing previous demand zone {image} {image}

sure thing, thanks for the heads up! I think it is already at the bottom, so i entered a buy. This is because I also think the eurusd has already formed a temporary bottom.
  • #398
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:48pm Sep 4, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting Starry
{quote} sure thing, thanks for the heads up! I think it is already at the bottom, so i entered a buy. This is because I also think the eurusd has already formed a temporary bottom.
It has been my experience that Price always for most part is attracted to round numbers.Therefore I place my orders at RN hence 84 I am almost certain will get hit before price goes up.
If not then green pips to you!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #399
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:59pm Sep 4, 2013 7:59pm
something for inspiration
Inserted Video
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #400
  • Edited 8:28am Sep 5, 2013 1:34am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I hope you got out because its approaching 1.45 fast.
That certainly didn't turn into the EUR/AUD reversal I was hoping for. Bullish daily RSI trends have now been invalidated but price bounced from the support line just as the AUD/USD was rejected by its resistance lines in both price and RSI. EUR/USD bounced off the 38.2% retracement to the pip so I believe it has bottomed.

All combined, though I don't like daily RSI below 50 (and in a bear channel as well), but with the trend line support and a return to the congestion zone plus AUD/USD decline and EUR/USD support, I'd say EUR/AUD is going to make another run for the top.

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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