Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 85 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,681
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:03am Aug 30, 2013 2:03am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Anybody got triggered on the ERUNZD H4 short trade I mentioned yesterday apart from Mike? I know he got triggered earlier because he showed us, his broker had different H4 speedbumps candles. The trade was triggered on my broker, 100 pips up and at breakeven now! Hopefully it will drop like a rock, let's see. Hope you could take this short on eurnzd as well! Alfonso
I checked it out, but my broker didn't have any bullish candle. Instead it was a bearish candle, and If I'm not mistaken, you said speedbumps must have an opposite type candle in them to be valid. So mine was not valid on my charts.

Also, I remember you always say to trade what you see and trade your charts, so I didn't take it.


Congratulations!
  • #1,682
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:14am Aug 30, 2013 2:14am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Alfonso, Did your short trigger for AUDCAD at 0.942 on the 4H supply? I remember you had a limit order there, or am I mistaken? Also, I have taken a short on USDCAD at a supply area at 1.052. What do you think of these trades? Thanks.
AUDCAD
No, I wasn't triggered on AUDCAD. Not because I didn't want to, but because my EA failed again . I am trying to fix many of the bugs I've detected. I am not in front of the screen most of the time, I just program my EA to take levels in certain conditions and the EA will not take the trades if one of the conditions is not true, but it's missing some trades because of bugs I need to fix, and some of them I don't really know what is going on not to take them, hard work. I missed that audcad h4 short, and long on nasdaq h1, s&p h1 and us2000 h1. Now I look at those 3 CFD trades and I see what I am missing, long rallies! I am a bit angry because I missed them but when I fix the errors I will be triggered on the next ones, so I am positive.

USDCAD
The thing with 1.052, the level in green and overshot now is that previous original h4 speedbump demand was not taken out, if that happens the level right above is not that good for a short and I always wait for the extreme at or within a higher timeframe supply area. I am waiting for a short at the top extreme one at 1.0548 because it's fresh, the origin of the whole drop and AT the D1 supply proximal line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 147 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,683
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:17am Aug 30, 2013 2:17am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} I checked it out, but my broker didn't have any bullish candle. Instead it was a bearish candle, and If I'm not mistaken, you said speedbumps must have an opposite type candle in them to be valid. So mine was not valid on my charts. Also, I remember you always say to trade what you see and trade your charts, so I didn't take it. Congratulations!
Yes! You have to trade what you see on your charts, that's key! If you start looking at other's then you will run into problems. Trade what you see on yours, only on yours. If you did futures then it's a different thing because all brokers should show the same price for all instruments, there is a global price for everybody, but on Forex it's a pain in the ***! So trade your charts no anybody else's!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,684
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:29am Aug 30, 2013 2:29am
Hi Alfonso
Am I only one experiencing the weird constant alarm on ADR indicator? I love this indicator but it started to act weird since yesterday.
I deleted library files but now it wont work anymore and when I add back the files alarms come back.
Do you have an idea? or maybe you are using different version other then page 1?
Thank you my friend.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,685
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:30am Aug 30, 2013 2:30am
Quoting Davit
Hi Alfonso Am I only one experiencing the weird constant alarm on ADR indicator? I love this indicator but it started to act weird since yesterday. I deleted library files but now it wont work anymore and when I add back the files alarms come back. Do you have an idea? or maybe you are using different version other then page 1? Thank you my friend.
I get a constant alarm when I use the template posted on the first page. That's why I only use the RR and S&D indicators individually.
  • #1,686
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:34am Aug 30, 2013 2:34am
Quoting Davit
Hi Alfonso Am I only one experiencing the weird constant alarm on ADR indicator? I love this indicator but it started to act weird since yesterday. I deleted library files but now it wont work anymore and when I add back the files alarms come back. Do you have an idea? or maybe you are using different version other then page 1? Thank you my friend.
Hello Davit!
I will look into it during the weekend and see what it the problem might be, ok? I am not experiencing that problem but I will see what that alert could be. Hope that's fine with you, need sometime to go through it!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,687
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:42am Aug 30, 2013 2:42am
Quoting Sachu
{quote} Hi Alfonso, My charts look different to yours! I will be grateful if you could point me to the location from where I can download your latest S&D and other indicators (especially the demand %) and templates. Further, I am trying your spreadsheet of open office that lets us know where we are on the curve. Do you have the latest version? The one I am using has quite a few blank lines for some currency pairs! Error may be? Look forward to your guidance mate. Regards. Sachu
Hello Sachu!

All indicators are on first post like always, you have to download the indicators.zip. The latest spreadsheet was posted a few posts back as well. I do not update it everyday because I am into many things, and I share it from time to time. I did recently and only a few levels were broken. There are some blank lines because I used to have other pairs there and I no longe trade them. You can add the ones you want and so on.

All is explained on the video on how to use the spreadsheet as well as the spreadsheet thread whose link you can find on my profile.
Hope that helps! It needs some manual work

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,688
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:46am Aug 30, 2013 2:46am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Davit! I will look into it during the weekend and see what it the problem might be, ok? I am not experiencing that problem but I will see what that alert could be. Hope that's fine with you, need sometime to go through it! Alfonso

Alfonso
Thank you.There is no rush about this.Take your time.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,689
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:54am Aug 30, 2013 2:54am
Quoting Axlz
Hi guys, Hope your trades are going well. USDCAD and AUDCAD trades are open for me. AUDCAD hit 4H supply and I took the trade. Let's have a good day before weeks end.
hmm i also opened my usdcad and aud cad trade like you , on the other hand eurnzd and silver 4hr chart good speedbump sell entry running.( i want to post my chart but forexfactory not allow me to post chart, i dont know why!)
  • #1,690
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:55am Aug 30, 2013 2:55am
Dear Panoramia,

I am new to this forum and this is my first post in this forum. I really admired your helping attitude. Since last 12 years i have seen in so many strategies and techniques. But my mind says this is the ultimate & genuine technique. I am practicing it on NIFTY india. I have some doubts even after saw the video's in youtube which i would like to express in my next post.
  • #1,691
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:20am Aug 30, 2013 3:20am
Quoting vijay14
Dear Panoramia, I am new to this forum and this is my first post in this forum. I really admired your helping attitude. Since last 12 years i have seen in so many strategies and techniques. But my mind says this is the ultimate & genuine technique. I am practicing it on NIFTY india. I have some doubts even after saw the video's in youtube which i would like to express in my next post.
My most warming welcome to the thread Vijay! Thanks for your words, we are doing a great job here helping each other! I just started it, others are following and helping, it's a group not just one person.

Feel free to ask your doubts, but remember to post your charts without indicators and only H1/H4 trades, not lower timeframes. We use color codes and some easy to remember terminology, try to stick to them. In order to do that you'll need to go through the 1st post and the whole thread. Lots of info in here right now!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,692
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:25am Aug 30, 2013 3:25am
Quoting Crocs
This EUR/USD H4 supply looks like a strong level but didn't violate any demand... However, it do break the support level strongly. Any idea? {image}
Hello Crocs,

Look at your EURUSD H4 chart again and also at the one I've attached. Didn't EURUSD broke previous support? What else do you need to validate a supply level?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 130 KB


See how the H4 supply on EURUSD matches the H4 speedbump demand on $index. The same happens on USDCHF which is eurusd's mirror with a H4 speedbump demand. It was mentioned by Jason (Pres78) on a previous $index analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 136 KB


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,693
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:46am Aug 30, 2013 3:46am
Looking to short on H4 speedbump on GBPJPY. Right at the D1 supply proximal line.

Price almost made it to it, I have had this trade planned for 2 days. Hopefully it will make it to my entry, but it could keep dropping further and create a new H4 supply where price is dropping now, but this new potential H4 supply which could be forming now, would first have to remove previous demand in order to be validate, like always.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 131 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,694
  • Edited 4:17am Aug 30, 2013 3:56am | Edited 4:17am
Hi Panoramia,

I've heard in one of your webinars that if a level is not fresh, but still in control, we could trade it using confirmation for entry. Are you trading those not fresh levels? Which confirmation are you using?

I've also two question about the charts in attachement. Sorry that I was not using your template; MTç is not working on my computer as I'm behind a proxy. In chart 1, is the demand level a valid level? I mean can we say this is a drop-base-rally level?

In chart 2, right after the level is formed, there is a candle with a big wick retesting that demand level. Do you considere it to be still fresh when price is reaching this level on the right of the chart? I never know how to handle those levels when there is a wick retesting them right at the beginning.
  • #1,695
  • Aug 30, 2013 4:02am Aug 30, 2013 4:02am
Hi there, Alfonso,
look how bad that 4h GBPJPY speedbump looks on my brokers platform (blue circle).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_10 Aug. 30 10.53.jpg Size: 123 KB


good luck trading. I avoid posting my trades because I cant use your SD indicator (dont want to confuse people on this thread). Your job is great as always.
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #1,696
  • Aug 30, 2013 4:14am Aug 30, 2013 4:14am
Hi guys,

I have a sell setup on gold H1 according to fresh level with the trend.
however i have a concern that if we should first take out 1389.74 low to confirm that H1 level.
after that, if we arrive to fresh and original Daily demand level, i will be looking for longs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold weekly.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold H4.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 1h.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,697
  • Aug 30, 2013 4:16am Aug 30, 2013 4:16am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Panoramia, I've heard in one of your webinars that if a level is not fresh, but still in control, we could trade it using confirmation for entry. Are you trading those not fresh levels? Which confirmation are you using?
Hi Dvarrin!

The confirmation I am using is the one that I always use and others are using, there is just one type. Wait for brand new SD levels to be formed and trade them, that's all.

If the D1 level is not fresh, then I normally do this:

  1. Wait for previous H4/H1 demand to be clearly broken
  2. Wait for a really strong imbalance formed on the brand new level

If the D1 level is fresh then:

  1. I will set & forget on original levels
  2. Or wait for a confirmation trade, this confirmation trade does not need to break previous SD levels since the D1 is fresh and it's the first pullback, higher probability

That's the way I do it!
Hope that makes sense to you.


Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,698
  • Aug 30, 2013 4:38am Aug 30, 2013 4:38am
I'm not sure I could understand well. if the D1 supply level is not fresh, we wait for a down move breaking previous demand and then we enter the trade when price retests the new supply level, which could be not original if it occures right on the initial supply level (see example)?

Yet an other question. If right after a level is created there is a big candle wick retesting that level, do you considere it as being still fresh? I never know how to handle those cases, because on a bigger time frame we don't see the wick and the level looks fresh.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example.png Size: 11 KB
  • #1,699
  • Aug 30, 2013 4:39am Aug 30, 2013 4:39am
Hi

I am really new to Forex trading I am really loving this thread and how supply and demand really works by following everything in this thread. I have watched all the videos several times, and learn something new everytime I watch them and also some others on youtube, http://www.youtube.com/user/panoramia/videos . I have some really good results (really surprised myself) so far this week on the demo account I am using. Will start posting some charts soon.

Can somebody suggested a good trade manager I can use in conjunction with this system.

Thanks for this great thread and system, has really opened up my options.

Alfonso you are the best
  • #1,700
  • Aug 30, 2013 4:45am Aug 30, 2013 4:45am
Quoting dvarrin
I'm not sure I could understand well. if the D1 supply level is not fresh, we wait for a down move breaking previous demand and then we enter the trade when price retests the new supply level, which could be not original if it occures right on the initial supply level (see example)? Yet an other question. If right after a level is created there is a big candle wick retesting that level, do you considere it as being still fresh? I never know how to handle those cases, because on a bigger time frame we don't see the wick and the level looks fresh....
The answer to your question is simple, it's covered on the videos.

If that new supply area you drew on your drawing took out previous demand. In fact, it has to take out previous demand in order to be validated as valid supply. If that happens, then it's a valid supply zone. When that happens we have a new trend being formed (for example bouncing off a D1 supply).

What do we do when we have a trend on our entry timeframe? Trade fresh levels, original levels are not needed. If the level is fresh and original, it's even better. But we don't need an original level when we trade with an existing or a new trend.

We do need an original level if we want to go counter trend. Those are the rules, that "simple". Always the same thing, we need to be mechanical.

If right after a level is created it's restested, I will not take it into account. I want at least a full candle (OHLC) closed away from the SD level in order to validate the level.

Hope that makes sense!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
8 traders viewing now