DislikedSell limit placed EURCAD 1H supply. EDIT: Oops, Wrong picture. Correct picture is now uploaded. {image}Ignored
Really disappointed in myself so far. Making stupid mistakes.
Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
- #1,666
- Aug 29, 2013 1:23pm Aug 29, 2013 1:23pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #1,669
- Aug 29, 2013 1:49pm Aug 29, 2013 1:49pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #1,672
- Aug 29, 2013 5:57pm Aug 29, 2013 5:57pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Big day today on the USD Index taking out a trendline and engulfing several old supply zones on the way up. Looks like we should be heading up to at least the first red zone shown on my chart. This is not "fresh" per say as this zone was on reaction to a previous supply zone but this was a key new zone none the less that lead to the break of the July low and demand. The move up since breaking the trendline has IMHO taken out any real supply between it and that red zone. As I am sure you all know we have recently bounced from a lovely DBR daily demand zone and have started to build new demand bases. Also as you can see on the Daily how the 4hr supply zones make sense within the bigger picture with that first (lowest) zone hitting right at the last major daily swing RBD level above where we are now. The next supply zone is the GAP fill and the two zone above that are within that highest seen RBD zone.
Based on all of this I am watching a 1hr zone on USDCHF for a possible long off the base that formed right after the break of the Daily trendline. Personally I like the lower two zone better because well they are lower however a return to these zones would mean that we have moved back below the trendline which would not be great however if the top zones fails I will watch these other two with interest. The lowest zone is a lovely DBR making a HL right before the recent 4hr TL was broken and the next was a RBR speedbump leading to the upper TL break. The white dashed lines are weekly S&R lines. Daily and Weekly we are coming up from not fresh but well proven support zones that appear to be holding again for now.
I am curious Alfonso how you view bases like these after a TL break. Do you still want to see the 3:1 move away? I think I have seen you tak set-ups off zones without that move away during trend changes but I may be wrong. What concerns me a bit is how many times we get great bases on the 4hr and 1hr and don't get the retraces we need based on needing that strong move away. Even Sam Seiden wants 2:1 (I think) but again I have seen him take what appear to be immediate retests off zones without the big move away. I understand if we are trading daily zone that we will many times wait weeks and months to come back but the rewards are huge. Trading 1hr and even 4hr I am curious if there are safe ways to get into more moves.
Just throwing ideas around in my head and wanted to get them down for others to comment on. I think that I may need to expand how many pairs I trade as this does give good trades but just not enough. Part of my issue working fulltime and living where I live London open is at 4AM and if I get busy at work I can miss many set-ups as they are occurring. I realize that we can't catch them all but I need to figure out how to catch more. Do I need to use all pending orders? Email alerts for dozens of levels and dozens of pairs (my wife would love that at 2AM
)... There are many times that during a downtrend say we get a lovely RBD but never make it back to the base.
Alfonso I also saw that you don't trade S/R flips why is that? Also do you consider or trade ignored S/D zones are being swapped once we get a huge momentum bar that blows right through when price come back?
How do others deal with these various issues?
Based on all of this I am watching a 1hr zone on USDCHF for a possible long off the base that formed right after the break of the Daily trendline. Personally I like the lower two zone better because well they are lower however a return to these zones would mean that we have moved back below the trendline which would not be great however if the top zones fails I will watch these other two with interest. The lowest zone is a lovely DBR making a HL right before the recent 4hr TL was broken and the next was a RBR speedbump leading to the upper TL break. The white dashed lines are weekly S&R lines. Daily and Weekly we are coming up from not fresh but well proven support zones that appear to be holding again for now.
I am curious Alfonso how you view bases like these after a TL break. Do you still want to see the 3:1 move away? I think I have seen you tak set-ups off zones without that move away during trend changes but I may be wrong. What concerns me a bit is how many times we get great bases on the 4hr and 1hr and don't get the retraces we need based on needing that strong move away. Even Sam Seiden wants 2:1 (I think) but again I have seen him take what appear to be immediate retests off zones without the big move away. I understand if we are trading daily zone that we will many times wait weeks and months to come back but the rewards are huge. Trading 1hr and even 4hr I am curious if there are safe ways to get into more moves.
Just throwing ideas around in my head and wanted to get them down for others to comment on. I think that I may need to expand how many pairs I trade as this does give good trades but just not enough. Part of my issue working fulltime and living where I live London open is at 4AM and if I get busy at work I can miss many set-ups as they are occurring. I realize that we can't catch them all but I need to figure out how to catch more. Do I need to use all pending orders? Email alerts for dozens of levels and dozens of pairs (my wife would love that at 2AM
)... There are many times that during a downtrend say we get a lovely RBD but never make it back to the base. Alfonso I also saw that you don't trade S/R flips why is that? Also do you consider or trade ignored S/D zones are being swapped once we get a huge momentum bar that blows right through when price come back?
How do others deal with these various issues?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #1,676
- Aug 30, 2013 1:40am Aug 30, 2013 1:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
{quote} You're right, it's a speedbump. really disappointed in myself. I keep making stupid mistakes. I should know better.
- Try to always buy low in the curve, sell high in the curve for higher probabilities. Don't try to sell when price has dropped a lot on the entry timeframe, because price does not move in straight lines. The further it drops, the bigger the pullback, so trying to catch speedbumps when price has dropped that much it's very low probability
- The lower the timeframe, the more levels you will have and the more "noise". Instead of focusing on H1 for your entries, focus on H4 for now so that you can become more patient, I believe that patience is making you take short trades that are too low in the curve and longs too high in the curve
Those are my recommendations, it's up to you now to take action 
Otherwise your trading will get into a loop difficult to break!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #1,678
- Aug 30, 2013 1:43am Aug 30, 2013 1:43am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Where to draw the upper zone Market made a fast, furious and steady drop this morning on the Nzd.Usd. My question is: Where to draw the upper supply level. Martin
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #1,680
- Aug 30, 2013 2:01am Aug 30, 2013 2:01am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community