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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #161
  • Aug 30, 2013 12:36am Aug 30, 2013 12:36am
Quoting Pinbar
Great stuff folks. This was a no brainer, pass. The fake out bar closed just below the 1.32500 level but more importantly the consolidation below at 1.32000 was the key. Note that as we speak, price is at the same level. {image}
I was just wondering looking at that setup that you perhaps made the mistake of leaving the first bar following the fake out bar which actually revealed the whole result already. The FTA was obviously the box high and you showed the bar after the fake out bar hitting that FTA. This trade had done what you would have wanted from it on the very chart you asked the question on.

This is a great exercise for people struggling to locate FTAs and initial target areas for their trades.

Since the ultimate target, for discretionary traders anyways, always depends on how things develop along with how price performs at the initial trouble areas, it is always a vague shot predicting the "ultimate" outcome to a trade setup via this exercise. It kind of makes it like a shot in the dark and not much useful. It works best when people start thinking in terms of where is price going initially.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #162
  • Aug 30, 2013 12:41am Aug 30, 2013 12:41am
Quoting loog12us
{quote} the blue line is FTA {image}


I am glad you pointed it out.

Again I think the target you initially called for, was more an anticipation of the ultimate target then. It made me uneasy thinking that you might have missed the FTA altogether.

Again like I mentioned in the previous post, when answering, don't go for hero calls. Call for the next target area. If you develop this skill, you'll see how you can use it to eventually follow your entire trades and manage them really well through more than one trouble areas simply by looking at the action at trouble area 1 and if confident then simply calling for the next area price should be headed for. It puts you so much ahead of the herd.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #163
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:21am Aug 30, 2013 1:21am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I was just wondering looking at that setup that you perhaps made the mistake of leaving the first bar following the fake out bar which actually revealed the whole result already. The FTA was obviously the box high and you showed the bar after the fake out bar hitting that FTA. This trade had done what you would have wanted from it on the very chart you asked the question on. This is a great exercise for people struggling to locate FTAs and initial target areas for their trades. Since the ultimate target, for discretionary traders anyways,...
I remember you explaining similar situations back in February. There I learned that:
-> If a bar goes beyond the high, and closes below (but not with 1-2 pips - close below would mean at least 10-20 pips. - just like the small SFP that pinbar pointed out, then we can expect a fall. BUT if price closes above or on it -> then this old SFP might act as a support and resistance and price will bounce from it.
New guys will see some A+ looking HUGE pinbars at swing lows. - But if they cant close back in the box - then get ready for bouncing off....

Btw - i bought DS's order flow book and its amazing I might not be super-active in the next weeks, but this is only because im focusing on that stuff. (Which is nothing but a deeper explanation of what you teach here

Cheers,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #164
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:35am Aug 30, 2013 1:35am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} I remember you explaining similar situations back in February. There I learned that: -> If a bar goes beyond the high, and closes below (but not with 1-2 pips - close below would mean at least 10-20 pips. - just like the small SFP that pinbar pointed out, then we can expect a fall. BUT if price closes above or on it -> then this old SFP might act as a support and resistance and price will bounce from it. New guys will see some A+ looking HUGE pinbars at swing lows. - But if they cant close back in the box - then get ready for bouncing...
True that.

Dark Star's a great dude for sure. I picked more order flow stuff off his posts than anyone else here at FF.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #165
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:28am Aug 30, 2013 2:28am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} And he got an unbelievable great chat room on the site. People discussing what's happening all the time etc. At the james16 PF i can't recall such an active chat room. Is tis maybe cause at the j16 ppl are tend to trade daily / weekly while at DS ppl are much more daytraders? O.o Anyway I hang all the time in the forum and they help a lot
I'd like to refrain from answering to this. We're not comparing two commercial services at this thread

g.
I believe . . .
  • #166
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:23am Aug 30, 2013 3:23am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I am glad you pointed it out. Again I think the target you initially called for, was more an anticipation of the ultimate target then. It made me uneasy thinking that you might have missed the FTA altogether. Again like I mentioned in the previous post, when answering, don't go for hero calls. Call for the next target area. If you develop this skill, you'll see how you can use it to eventually follow your entire trades and manage them really well through more than one trouble areas simply by looking at the action at trouble area...

The next red bar was already , almost on FTA , thats why i first pointed out the next big thing.
Tough Times Never Last But Tough People Do
  • #167
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:39am Aug 30, 2013 3:39am
Seems tricky one.

There are more odds against , the fakey bar is too long , if we wait for retrace on the lvl then we have
BR very close , makes more chances for heading towards south and with FTA very close.
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Tough Times Never Last But Tough People Do
  • #168
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:43am Aug 30, 2013 3:43am
any one watching thing one , seems interesting but have to wait and see.
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Tough Times Never Last But Tough People Do
  • #169
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:51am Aug 30, 2013 3:51am
this one is also approaching near , would like to see some action in the circled area?
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Tough Times Never Last But Tough People Do
  • #170
  • Aug 30, 2013 5:46am Aug 30, 2013 5:46am
Quoting ghous
{quote} True that. Dark Star's a great dude for sure. I picked more order flow stuff off his posts than anyone else here at FF. g.
That's debatable.

and btw Lamer, there are no "ifs" and "buts" in trading. Dont try to make equations for success.
  • #171
  • Aug 30, 2013 6:11am Aug 30, 2013 6:11am
Quoting loog12us
Seems tricky one. There are more odds against , the fakey bar is too long , if we wait for retrace on the lvl then we have BR very close , makes more chances for heading towards south and with FTA very close. {image}
Agree with you. Additionally I just don't like the story on the higher time frames.

We had a bullish pin bar as a fake out off the 4H swing low as well as the 1.7 BRN that I guess someone was discussing here as well. I felt it also suffered from the same deficiency of the bigger story going against these short term opportunities.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #172
  • Aug 30, 2013 6:20am Aug 30, 2013 6:20am
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} That's debatable. and btw Lamer, there are no "ifs" and "buts" in trading. Dont try to make equations for success.
No it isn't. The fact that I picked order flow stuff from Dark Star more than from anyone else isn't contestable.

Good to see you dropping by bud.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #173
  • Aug 30, 2013 6:34am Aug 30, 2013 6:34am
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} That's debatable. and btw Lamer, there are no "ifs" and "buts" in trading. Dont try to make equations for success.
Thank you for the advice. I just love these situations when pros jump in and with a single line they change aspect/approach!
Thanks again!
It's all psychology...
  • #174
  • Edited 7:36am Aug 30, 2013 7:24am | Edited 7:36am
Quoting loog12us
{quote} the blue line is FTA {image}

However, you made this post , more than 4 hours after the answer was posted.
It will not you much good in real life. situations.

The point of this exercise, as in life, is not to give a correct answer but to give a feasible answer.
  • #175
  • Edited 7:48am Aug 30, 2013 7:27am | Edited 7:48am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I was just wondering looking at that setup that you perhaps made the mistake of leaving the first bar following the fake out bar which actually revealed the whole result already. The FTA was obviously the box high and you showed the bar after the fake out bar hitting that FTA. This trade had done what you would have wanted from it on the very chart you asked the question on. This is a great exercise for people struggling to locate FTAs and initial target areas for their trades. Since the ultimate target, for discretionary traders anyways,...

Yeah, I also thought of that but, decided to leave the IB as a small hint.

I am looking forward to you hitting us with a WIPG.
Tomorrow is moving day so, I will probably not be around.
We will put the WIPG on hold for a while.
  • #176
  • Aug 30, 2013 8:49am Aug 30, 2013 8:49am
Here is a setup from silver I liked a lot but I wanted to trade with a sell limit order and the trade wasn't triggered.

I think this was better than the gold setup.

Ghous what do you think about correlation?

I sometimes use correlation to decide if I enter a trade or not. For instance if I see a fake out on silver I usually prefer to see a fake out on gold and I think this gives strength to the trade. And I see many times they go in the same direction. A few days ago I posted a setup in Pinbar's thread about EUR NZD and you said you prefer GBP NZD because EUR NZD was running into a BRN but the 2 setups would have both won.
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  • #177
  • Aug 30, 2013 9:45am Aug 30, 2013 9:45am
Quoting ghous
{quote} No it isn't. The fact that I picked order flow stuff from Dark Star more than from anyone else isn't contestable.
But this is a new statement! In the original (I picked more order flow stuff off his posts than anyone else here at FF) the little "from" is missing
  • #178
  • Aug 30, 2013 10:08am Aug 30, 2013 10:08am
Quoting str8
Here is a setup from silver I liked a lot but I wanted to trade with a sell limit order and the trade wasn't triggered. I think this was better than the gold setup. Ghous what do you think about correlation? I sometimes use correlation to decide if I enter a trade or not. For instance if I see a fake out on silver I usually prefer to see a fake out on gold and I think this gives strength to the trade. And I see many times they go in the same direction. A few days ago I posted a setup in Pinbar's thread about EUR NZD and you said you prefer GBP NZD...
I don't use correlation as a "confluence" if that is what you are asking.

For me correlation simply refers to the general rhythm that many and some time most pairs tend to exhibit simultaneously and this translates for me into dry seasons and wet seasons. You know like nothing interesting for a couple of weeks and all of a sudden you have setups everywhere.

If anything I am only cautious when I am taking on similar setups on strongly correlates pairs at the same time. Just like when one works, it pulls on the other perhaps more mediocre setups, it also happens the other way round. When one doesn't work it has the potential to take others with it. Either ways your "exposure" is increased because you are more or less banking on a single outcome as opposed to two different non-correlated outcomes.

Also co-relation is not something as simple as it apparently seems. These bonds between different pairs/markets can strengthen and weaken over time. Also there could be varying degrees of co-relation. Two pairs may exhibit almost perfect co-relation at one instance and then not so much at a later date.

Just something to keep in mind.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #179
  • Aug 30, 2013 10:09am Aug 30, 2013 10:09am
Quoting karelk
{quote} But this is a new statement! In the original (I picked more order flow stuff off his posts than anyone else here at FF) the little "from" is missing
Dang! Don't be-head me then please.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #180
  • Aug 30, 2013 10:16am Aug 30, 2013 10:16am
Quoting loog12us
any one watching thing one , seems interesting but have to wait and see. {image}
Again, this is where the lower TFs will rip you apart if you're not conscious of the overall story.

Price didn't accelerate into the HHR. As a result you're bound to be fighting with lack of space on the way back when you short at the HHR.

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g.
I believe . . .
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