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AUD/USD

  • #63,261
  • Aug 29, 2013 6:58am Aug 29, 2013 6:58am
high $ means their product are less price competitive, and thus will slow down the selling, .... lessen the production.... more unemployment.... bad data...
...
right?
  • #63,262
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:02am Aug 29, 2013 7:02am
Quoting Gwan
high $ means their product are less price competitive, and thus will slow down the selling, .... lessen the production.... more unemployment.... bad data... ... right?
that depends Gwan....

Depends on whether if US is a Net Exporter or a Net Importer....
if they are Net Exporter, and export driven economy, then yes Lower currency would promote US growth...
however that is not the case in US.... US just like Switzerland, has a more Service Driven Economy and they are a Net Importer....
so one can argue that Strong USD would benefit them like the CHF has been.... since foreigners would have to buy the USD in order to purchase services provided....
problem is the US economy is so well diversed in different sector.... that we don't even know if high or low usd would benefit the US economy....

Try to picture the UNITED states, as the Eurozone....
Greece would LOVE to have high Euro so they can import capital goods for growth...
while France and Germany (highly productive countries) would want to keep the EURUSD low so they can export their shit.....

Only problem is Greece going into default is met by hypocritical bailout by Germany whereas in the US..... States like Detroit, or California going into default gets 0-interest bailouts.....

USA and Eurozone is in essence the same... problem is member state of the Eurozone only looks to individual benefits throught their neighbouring Eurozone members' demises....
whereas the US understand that each state has its competitive advantage in different sectors, and that each sectors would have their Ups and Downs in a cyclical manner, so the US economy as a whole would really be bogged down to whether or not the growth of booming states can sustain the slow growth in busting states.

see the dilemma??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,263
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:07am Aug 29, 2013 7:07am
Quoting Gwan
high $ means their product are less price competitive, and thus will slow down the selling, .... lessen the production.... more unemployment.... bad data... ... right?
What $? If its US$ then that argument doesn't really apply, we dont really export anything anymore.... We buy all our crap from China
  • #63,264
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:08am Aug 29, 2013 7:08am
Quoting Gwan
high $ means their product are less price competitive, and thus will slow down the selling, .... lessen the production.... more unemployment.... bad data... ... right?
you talk AUD, I guess

in principle you correct but in reality there is not much AU exports apart from commodities. Per definition, commodities have little added value. One could argue that major industry in AU is retail and high AUD will stimulate retail as imports cheaper. Other big thing is housing, which is great majority traded by AU citizens so making no impact.
  • #63,265
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:10am Aug 29, 2013 7:10am
Quoting borngreat007
{quote} What $? If its US$ then that argument doesn't really apply, we dont really export anything anymore.... We buy all our crap from China
that is not true. US exports lots everywhere. See stock market at all time high.

And will go higher.
  • #63,266
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:18am Aug 29, 2013 7:18am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} that is not true. US exports lots everywhere. See stock market at all time high. And will go higher.
Buddy, know your facts.... US is a net importer.....
just look at their Balance of Payment, they are still in Balance of Payment Deficit... meaning (X-M)= <0

check it here....
US is still a Net Importer... with them having a Balance of Payment Deficit of 477 billion USD...
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.CAB.XOKA.CD
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,267
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:19am Aug 29, 2013 7:19am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} that is not true. US exports lots everywhere. See stock market at all time high. And will go higher.
Of course it's true.. When you export $100 worth of goods/services and buy $200 worth then it's a complete wash.
have you heard of trade deficit? That's the diff between your imports and your exports and in 2012 we had a $540.4billion trade deficit. That means we bought $540.4 billion more crap than we exported.
  • #63,268
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:21am Aug 29, 2013 7:21am
Quoting borngreat007
{quote} Of course it's true.. When you export $100 worth of goods/services and buy $200 worth then it's a complete wash. have you heard of trade deficit? That's the diff between your imports and your exports and in 2012 we had a $540.4billion trade deficit. That means we bought $540.4 billion more crap than we exported.
477 Billion apparently according to the world bank.... but yea I replied to him with a link, check my post above....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,269
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:26am Aug 29, 2013 7:26am
thanks for the info guys,
  • #63,270
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:32am Aug 29, 2013 7:32am
aussie ...may be the abysssssssssssss....if break now
  • #63,271
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:37am Aug 29, 2013 7:37am
Pffft. US still churning up with good numbers huh...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,272
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:39am Aug 29, 2013 7:39am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Buddy, know your facts.... US is a net importer..... just look at their Balance of Payment, they are still in Balance of Payment Deficit... meaning (X-M)= <0 check it here.... US is still a Net Importer... with them having a Balance of Payment Deficit of 477 billion USD... http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.CAB.XOKA.CD
ok thanks. I thought that nation with 50M people on food stamps would not import much. But here ya go, proven wrong.
  • #63,273
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:41am Aug 29, 2013 7:41am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} lol c'mon I'm sure you can do better than that. Let me help you... "hello guys I would go LONG now audusd if I were you BECAUSE _________"
You are right sorry I should have given more details on why I woulf go Long . I am not a fundamental trader and I rely strictly on technical analysis. If you look at the 4H chart you will spot a bullish divergence OSMA and if my count is correct we are entering into wave 4 correction. I hope this will explain why I suggested to go Long AUDUSD.
  • #63,274
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:44am Aug 29, 2013 7:44am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} ok thanks. I thought that nation with 50M people on food stamps would not import much. But here ya go, proven wrong.
the US is still suffering from importing goods manufactured by cheap labours from emerging markets.....
unless the US can move its productivity back to their domestic market, US is gona suffer from Trade deficit lead weak economic growth and low inflation for prolonged period....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,275
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:46am Aug 29, 2013 7:46am
short 8934 stop 8940...
i wanna 88.50
good luck guys
  • #63,276
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:48am Aug 29, 2013 7:48am
Quoting theunplugged
short 8934 stop 8940... i wanna 88.50 good luck guys
you're gona get stopped out for sure, you have my word.

you're literally 10 pips away form hitting your Stop Loss....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #63,277
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:49am Aug 29, 2013 7:49am
Quoting theunplugged
short 8934 stop 8940... i wanna 88.50 good luck guys
6 pips range? How do you make money with such tight spread?
  • #63,278
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:50am Aug 29, 2013 7:50am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} 477 Billion apparently according to the world bank.... but yea I replied to him with a link, check my post above....
My bad. Didn't see that
  • #63,279
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:00am Aug 29, 2013 8:00am
for sure now there is your loss on your trade running ...long aud usd ...and big !!!
  • #63,280
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:02am Aug 29, 2013 8:02am
Quoting theunplugged
for sure now there is your loss on your trade running ...long aud usd ...and big !!!
huh? you're 10 pips away from hitting your SL and you don't even realize we just bounced off a rising trendline on the H1 chart.... you're doomed dude...
on such good US news and the AUDUSD cant even make a decent sell off?? come on... Pathetic....

Besides im trade the 4Hr chart to target AUDUSD at 0.9050 what do you think my SL is at?? lol surely not 10 pips away form entry...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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