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  • #361
  • Aug 28, 2013 3:46pm Aug 28, 2013 3:46pm
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
..."The policy, according to Mark Perry, a foreign policy analyst and author of several books on military history...
Not to be confused with the Mark Perry the extreme capitalist, member of ultra-conservative think-tank Mackinac Center for Public Policy, and professor of economics and finance at George Mason University in Washington. Articles from his blog, Carpe Diem, are picked up by far too many otherwise useful economic news feeds. His rantings all start out reasonable then take a sharp right-turn into crazytown once you get further in.

I note him for making fine arguments like how clear cutting forests is not just good business, it's better for the environment, and his recently regurgitated notion that there should be no minimum wage because it's unfair to unemployed people.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #362
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:21pm Aug 28, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Closed a limit short triggered at 7250 E/N +60pips Hi Bryno I looked at your chart and don't look for shorts at the bottom.On your left its clear support.Think in probabilities always, if it does not look good skip and look for another set up. I never traded this pair and frankly I avoid Yen pairs in general unless something really stands up. {image}
Hey Davit...Nice on the E/N, I had several trades called out but did not enter. I would have bagged some pips.

On the A/Y trade I posted...It was buy limits that were stopped out. What I meant about looking for shorts is to wait for price to rally back up to a potential sell zone...then look for selling opportunities.

Anyhow, I got my pips back today on the E/G (+38) and C/Y (+60). I knew Carney might move the market today so I positioned short on the E/G at a .618 fib. See chart, only one order filled though. For the C/Y I bought the latest bottom.

Thank you,
Bryan
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  • #363
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:37pm Aug 28, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting Davit
Wished I did short EA at 1.50 dropped clear 100pips overnight.... Moving on.Since lot of politics effect currency its worth thinking why Syria attack is basically nothing significant. Striking missiles from sea and air is safest way without getting troops on the ground. It was written (Aljazeera article) that Obama wants to punish Assad but does not want opposition to win.... "The policy, according to Mark Perry, a foreign policy analyst and [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Perry_%28author%29]author...

Also, I love the fundamental aspect of your journal and trading. On the Syrian state of affairs...what a quag-mire for the US, typical of the region. I think it would be best for the US to stand aside at this time.

on a lighter note, for the weekend...have you seen the movies 'Lord of War,' and 'Charlie Wilson's War?' it is kind of related.

thanks,
Bryan
  • #364
  • Aug 28, 2013 11:11pm Aug 28, 2013 11:11pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Hey Davit...Nice on the E/N, I had several trades called out but did not enter. I would have bagged some pips. On the A/Y trade I posted...It was buy limits that were stopped out. What I meant about looking for shorts is to wait for price to rally back up to a potential sell zone...then look for selling opportunities. Anyhow, I got my pips back today on the E/G (+38) and C/Y (+60). I knew Carney might move the market today so I positioned short on the E/G at a .618 fib. See chart, only one order filled though. For the C/Y I bought the latest...

Nice work Bryno
Those 30-40pips quickly pile up by the end of month.Important thing is getting used to seeing opportunities.You seem to see them well.Now I understand you about shorting.Yes waiting until sell zone

The way I am positioning myself for Sept.This is my general monthly "blue print" business outlook.Kind of targets to look for.
Regards

Short Eur/NZD from 1.71 and up

Short Eur/Aus 1.50 and up
Long NZD/USD 177 and lower
Long Aud/USD 89-87
Long USD/CHF 9150 -90

Any one of this set up get triggered I will happily build a nice position.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #365
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:34am Aug 29, 2013 9:34am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
I'm still waiting on AUD/USD & NZD/USD to make a decision before I do anything. I use the USD crosses as a barometer against their non-USD counterparts and I have less confidence than you fellows that an Aussie and Kiwi vs USD reversal are going to happen. Both the daily and monthly charts look to me like they could go either way.

This indecision at the bottom of their ranges has lead to some dramatic volatility in their non-USD pairings. For example, while NZD/USD has been contemplating its navel for the past week, you could have played GBP/NZD in both directions every day for roughly a 0.0200 gain both up and down. (Unfortunately, I played GBP/NZD hoping for continuation, giving up all profits when it reversed because the volatility was too great for any practical-sized trailing stop.) I believe that being on the right side of GBP/NZD when NZD/USD either fails or reverses is going to be tremendously profitable.

I know this volatility contradicts my "well behaved" argument, but unlike when the majors trade sideways, the non-USD minor pairings seem to go a bit haywire until they choose a direction.

You guys are playing the downside on EUR/AUD, but I believe the bull daily channel support will hold and when it's reached I'm going to play the upside again. I think if EUR/AUD reverses when daily RSI hits 50, the upside target will ultimately be 1.55 which is prior horizontal support on the monthly chart now that the descending long-term monthly trend line was breached at ~1.45. If the channel doesn't hold, I think EUR/AUD will bounce at this level and I'll enter long from that trend line. Only if that is breached am I interested in shorting this pair as I don't like playing against the trend and to me the overall trend is still bullish.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #366
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:30pm Aug 29, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting KADC
I'm still waiting on AUD/USD & NZD/USD to make a decision before I do anything. I use the USD crosses as a barometer against their non-USD counterparts and I have less confidence than you fellows that an Aussie and Kiwi vs USD reversal are going to happen. Both the daily and monthly charts look to me like they could go either way. This indecision at the bottom of their ranges has lead to some dramatic volatility in their non-USD pairings. For example, while NZD/USD has been contemplating its navel for the past week, you could have played GBP/NZD...

Great KADC
I agree with you on Kiwi and Aussie.They seem in free fall so far.My general targets are just that outlook but real decisions in Sept will be based on live situation.
If Feds do go ahead with QE reduction in SEPT we could see lot more down pressure on Aussie and Kiwi but if not we can see a corrective waves going up.
What is your RSI setting please?I like to know how you view RSI.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #367
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:37pm Aug 29, 2013 12:37pm
My current set ups

Eur/NZD From 1.72 up 1.73 short
USD/CHF long 91 9050 90
Long Kiwi 76.50 (I may add more but for know I feel good about 7650)

Aussie waiting out for know.All charts are on weekly
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #368
  • Aug 30, 2013 12:55am Aug 30, 2013 12:55am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great KADC I agree with you on Kiwi and Aussie.They seem in free fall so far.My general targets are just that outlook but real decisions in Sept will be based on live situation. If Feds do go ahead with QE reduction in SEPT we could see lot more down pressure on Aussie and Kiwi but if not we can see a corrective waves going up. What is your RSI setting please?I like to know how you view RSI. Regards
I've toyed around with different settings over different time periods, but I've found the usual default 14 period setting works well enough for me in all time frames.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #369
  • Aug 30, 2013 8:03am Aug 30, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Nice work Bryno Those 30-40pips quickly pile up by the end of month.Important thing is getting used to seeing opportunities.You seem to see them well.Now I understand you about shorting.Yes waiting until sell zone The way I am positioning myself for Sept.This is my general monthly "blue print" business outlook.Kind of targets to look for. Regards Short Eur/NZD from 1.71 and up Short Eur/Aus 1.50 and up Long NZD/USD 177 and lower Long Aud/USD 89-87 Long USD/CHF 9150 -90 Any one of this set up get triggered I will happily build...
Thanks Davit! yeah, my win rate has been spectacular for the last 3 weeks, it's awesome. I know the 30-40 pippers add up but I am working on holding my trades for the bigger wins...unless it was just meant to be a quick hit during the power hours or something like that. I think right now, my RR is probably like 15% of yours...or less.

I am entering an interesting psychological zone in my trading for the first time...where I am gaining confidence, and feeling pretty good about what I am looking for in terms of trade set-ups.

Thank you again for sharing your ideas in your journal here. Also, thanks for you business blue prints. I see some of the trades, particularly on the A/U and swissy. I do not trade the CHF but am now looking at integrating it into my set.

On the A/U, here is one thing I am looking at...similar buy zone as you. Though I am looking at the possibility of a nice ABCD formation. You can see my median channel in red...and the blue and purple lines are monthly and weekly s/r taken from OHLC. My buy zone is the red rectangle.

Have a good weekend,
Bryan
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  • #370
  • Aug 30, 2013 12:15pm Aug 30, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Thanks Davit! yeah, my win rate has been spectacular for the last 3 weeks, it's awesome. I know the 30-40 pippers add up but I am working on holding my trades for the bigger wins...unless it was just meant to be a quick hit during the power hours or something like that. I think right now, my RR is probably like 15% of yours...or less. I am entering an interesting psychological zone in my trading for the first time...where I am gaining confidence, and feeling pretty good about what I am looking for in terms of trade set-ups. Thank you again...

Bryno
You are doing fantastic.Feeling confident is great because it gives you a possibility that we can make it on this business where winners in general are few.
Your Aussie buy zone is spot on.Much depends what happens on Sept 18.If Feds reduce QE I can see Aussie going lot further down but if not I think Aussie will rebound perhaps back to 92 previous resistance.
My feeling and intuition is telling me that Feds won't do much in Sept because unemployment numbers are still weak.Anyway keep that in mind.
ABCD is spot on however price usually respects previous recent low and that creates sort of channel.
Swissy is great buy once it comes back to 92 or lower.Because its highly controlled by Swiss bank and its movements are sort of "well behaved" using KADC terminology.
Lets have great September!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #371
  • Aug 30, 2013 12:28pm Aug 30, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} I've toyed around with different settings over different time periods, but I've found the usual default 14 period setting works well enough for me in all time frames.

You inspired me to find out more about RSI. I know Dick Malone TDI creator basically incorporated RSI and Moving average very popular at FF. They are many systems based on TDI.
I always been weirdly skeptical of any cross systems and I like your idea of single RSI as a guide.I am going to revisit and educate myself on RSI.If you are using it then there must be a merit.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #372
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:30pm Aug 30, 2013 1:30pm
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
{quote} You inspired me to find out more about RSI. I know Dick Malone TDI creator basically incorporated RSI and Moving average very popular at FF. They are many systems based on TDI. I always been weirdly skeptical of any cross systems and I like your idea of single RSI as a guide.I am going to revisit and educate myself on RSI.If you are using it then there must be a merit. Regards
RSI is a really handy tool if used for more than indicating oversold and overbought. You can use MACD the same way, but I find the single line of RSI to be much easier to read.

With price-action trend lines, support/resistance, pivot points, and Fibonacci, etc. (all useful indicators) you have any number of viable targets, but with RSI you're only concerned about the current trend line or channel holding or breaking. With price-action your targets are "fixed" across all time frames (i.e. a 1.4850 target on EUR/AUD is still 1.4850 on a five-minute chart or a daily chart) whereas RSI trends vary with each time frame allowing you find an entry point other than (but preferably coinciding with) predetermined prices targets. Also, when price is going sideways in a range, RSI can indicate when it likely to break out of a range or it can confirm a bounce.

I only wish my trading platform supported actual RSI triggers so I didn't have to babysit. Well, I also wish it had forks, more accurate trend lines, moveable and distinct Fibonacci, supported non-horizontal trend line triggers, and most of all, stepped trailing stops, but alas, Interactive Brokers would rather spend $8 million on endorsing Republican candidates than on updating their software. This is what happens when the CEO is both the majority share holder and man who basically invented electronic trading so his ego doesn't allow for the possibility that someone might improve upon what he designed and built.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #373
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:35pm Aug 30, 2013 1:35pm
So I have been reading lot of info on RSI and its performance.It looks like RSI is great on range market where you can pick tops bottoms 70 overbought 30 oversold however it does poorly when you are in strong trend because oversold and overbought levels can remain lot longer and basically losing money.
I am still not a convert to RSI or any Oscillater.I just feel more confident looking at price channels and S/R zones.
Note KADC this is not to say your method of trading is not working.Far from it I am just skeptical of indicators in general.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #374
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:45pm Aug 30, 2013 1:45pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} RSI is a really handy tool if used for more than indicating oversold and overbought. You can use MACD the same way, but I find the single line of RSI to be much easier to read. With price-action trend lines, support/resistance, pivot points, and Fibonacci, etc. (all useful indicators) you have any number of viable targets, but with RSI you're only concerned about the current trend line or channel holding or breaking. With price-action your targets are "fixed" across all time frames (i.e. a 1.4850 target on EUR/AUD is still 1.4850 on a...

I posted not realizing your response.I am going to keep RSI on my chart for a month and see if I can see what you see in it.Nothing like practical experience.

"whereas RSI trends vary with each time frame allowing you find an entry point other than (but preferably coinciding with) predetermined prices targets. Also, when price is going sideways in a range, RSI can indicate when it likely to break out of a range or it can confirm a bounce."
Will pay attention to this.Thanks KADC
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #375
  • Edited 2:15pm Aug 30, 2013 1:56pm | Edited 2:15pm
KADC
What do you think about the U/CAD
My view is price failed to breach recent high 1.060 and fib 78.6 is last chance price to violate previous high and according to harmonic master Scott Carney if price fails to break last "gate" 78.6 fib then highly probable short entry is on the menu.
Grey box is my breakout zone where I think price either breaks N or S but based upon Price Action is likely to go south.

From his writing.
"The 0.786 retracement is the square root of the 0.618. The 0.786
retracement is the next critical area to examine, after the 0.618 has been
clearly violated. The 0.786 is a vital Fibonacci number because it is often
the “last chance reversal area” before retesting the original price point. Price
action that does not reverse from the 0.786 usually will retest, and often
break past the original starting point. Therefore, 0.786 failures are
significant because the stop loss limit will be clearly defined by the original
starting point and relatively small in comparison to the potential reversal.
The 0.786 retracement is fairly unknown in the industry, although I
believe that more technicians are becoming aware of its significance. In my
opinion, it is a crucial Fibonacci number, since it is one of the last harmonic
ratios before retesting a trend’s prior high or low and it can provide a clear
indication of the future direction based upon the price action at the number."
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #376
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:07pm Aug 30, 2013 2:07pm
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
So I have been reading lot of info on RSI and its performance.It looks like RSI is great on range market where you can pick tops bottoms 70 overbought 30 oversold however it does poorly when you are in strong trend because oversold and overbought levels can remain lot longer and basically losing money. I am still not a convert to RSI or any Oscillater.I just feel more confident looking at price channels and S/R zones. Note KADC this is not to say your method of trading is not working.Far from it I am just skeptical of indicators in general. {image}...
Oh, I don't use overbought/oversold. I see no value in that whatsoever. For RSI I rely on solely on trend lines.

For example, I shorted gold when it bounced off resistance on the five-minute chart. The change in trend was confirmed when the lower support line was breached.

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On the hourly chart I have parallels giving additional confirmation that the descending RSI resistance line is valid and the short position turned out to be a confirmation of the lesser hourly descending resistance. Daily RSI tells me to expect price action to continue downwards (expected bounce around $1374 area based on Fibonacci) so I do not expect the rising hourly support line to hold, but as I am short, my primary concern on the hourly chart is that the descending resistance line is not breached.

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Could I have taken the same position based on price action, certainly, but on the 5-minute RSI there was no doubt this this was the right call.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #377
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:09pm Aug 30, 2013 2:09pm
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
KADC What do you think about the U/CAD My view is price failed to breach recent high 1.060 and fib 88.6 (black) is last chance price to violate previous high and according to harmonic master Scott Carney if price fails to break last "gate" 88.6fib then highly probable short entry is on the menu. Grey box is my breakout zone where I think price either breaks N or S but based upon Price Action is likely to go south. {image}
My view on USD/CAD is sadness (I want our dollar at or better than parity) but give me a moment and I'll look at a chart (I don't have one currently for that pair).
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #378
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:17pm Aug 30, 2013 2:17pm
KADC
Great insights.I like that you use RSI differently not the usual OB OS.Thanks learning from you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #379
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:44pm Aug 30, 2013 2:44pm
Continuing how I see Price Action and hopefully be useful to others.

I love Harmonics.Plain and simple.

Once Price violates 786 and breaches previous high in case of UC 1.060 then most probable target is Fib extension of 1.27 at 1.070 which is key level previous 2011 high.
To understand this is critical.Price violates 786 then previous high and next stop is 1.27 Fib extension if violates 1.27 then 1.618 next stop at 1.0830
In short 1.070 is key sell zone.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #380
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:59pm Aug 30, 2013 2:59pm
In terms of order flow on Bank and hedge funds I suspect that they are massive limit shorts waiting at 1.070 on UC
If price reaches there I expect a sharp reversal.
In my trading style I can "safely" build a short position from 1.060 on every 50pips up.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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