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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #341
  • Edited 5:28pm Aug 25, 2013 5:08pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Entered EN short at 7174 next up 72 {image}


@Davit:

Please see post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post6917271

  • #342
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:37am Aug 26, 2013 8:37am
@Davit:

Please see post -
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post6918531
  • #343
  • Aug 26, 2013 1:32pm Aug 26, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting HDA
@Davit: Please see post - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post6918531
Hi
HDA
I did see the post and I responded.Its all good my friend.Wish you the best.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #344
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:41pm Aug 26, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi HDA I did see the post and I responded.Its all good my friend.Wish you the best.
@Davit:

This is it for me. We've made up back my spouse and I



Please see post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post6919470
  • #345
  • Aug 27, 2013 5:00pm Aug 27, 2013 5:00pm
Hi Davit...I have been doing well trading with your ideas and style. Though I took a hit last night on the A/Y and was stopped out.

No worries though. Just gotta roll with the punches eh....

Below is my chart...a bit messy ( a working chart ), but if I can draw your attention to the pink rectangle...had two buy limits above and below that rectangle in my 'buy zone.' Right before the 88.00 round number and just ahead of the 78.6 fib. But price just fell through.

I know I traded against the fundamental trend...will now look for shorts.

Thank you,
Bryan
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  • #346
  • Aug 27, 2013 9:30pm Aug 27, 2013 9:30pm
Channel trading Long EUR and GBP against AUD and NZD worked out amazingly well for me once I got past the false starts and re-entered once the trend lines were recrossed shortly after I last posted.

I'm now waiting to see if AUD and NZD continue their down trends due to inherent weakness or reverse due to USD weakness to give me guidance for EUR & GBP / AUD & NZD direction because AUD/USD is at RSI support but has not hit channel support, and NZD/USD has broken RSI support but is at channel support and both are stuck at their respective 76.4% Fibonaccis. (I expect general EUR and GBP strength against USD -- doubly-so if the US takes action against Syria.)

If they continue down EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD, etc. pairs will break above their double-tops and continue to the top of their channels, else it is EUR and GBP strength against AUD and NZD reversals which will likely initially push these crosses back down to their support lines as reversal strength tends to dominate fundamental strength until it is played out, at which point I'll re-enter long.


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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I appreciate the well thought out views on the related currencies/pairs which the participants of this thread always provide (as opposed to the "noise" of most threads here on Forex Factory) which are contrary to mine as they force me to be cautious and double-check my own analysis.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #347
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:30pm Aug 27, 2013 10:30pm
Quoting bryn077
Hi Davit...I have been doing well trading with your ideas and style. Though I took a hit last night on the A/Y and was stopped out. No worries though. Just gotta roll with the punches eh.... Below is my chart...a bit messy ( a working chart ), but if I can draw your attention to the pink rectangle...had two buy limits above and below that rectangle in my 'buy zone.' Right before the 88.00 round number and just ahead of the 78.6 fib. But price just fell through. I know I traded against the fundamental trend...will now look for shorts. Thank...
Closed a limit short triggered at 7250 E/N
+60pips

Hi Bryno
I looked at your chart and don't look for shorts at the bottom.On your left its clear support.Think in probabilities always, if it does not look good skip and look for another set up.
I never traded this pair and frankly I avoid Yen pairs in general unless something really stands up.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #348
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:48pm Aug 27, 2013 10:48pm
Quoting KADC
Channel trading Long EUR and GBP against AUD and NZD worked out amazingly well for me once I got past the false starts and re-entered once the trend lines were recrossed shortly after I last posted. I'm now waiting to see if AUD and NZD continue their down trends due to inherent weakness or reverse due to USD weakness to give me guidance for EUR & GBP / AUD & NZD direction because AUD/USD is at RSI support but has not hit channel support, and NZD/USD has broken RSI support but is at channel support and both are stuck at their respective 76.4% Fibonaccis....

Hi Kadc
Its great that it worked out.I know I was not into it but I am glad you took the trade.I don't think that Syria possible attack which would be minor air missile fires is gonna weaken US dollar.In fact it might just boast it.
I think Sept 18 is key date for Feds QE decision and I suspect it will happen that is reduction of QE.I have lot of Shorts on G/C and weaker Cable will certainly help.
Looking at EN to short once again 1.7250 and above.
Swissy is starting to look real good and I am building a nice long position to 94

I am glad we are actively exchanging ideas.I certainly am learning from you.Thank you.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #349
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:54pm Aug 27, 2013 10:54pm
Quoting KADC
Channel trading Long EUR and GBP against AUD and NZD worked out amazingly well for me once I got past the false starts and re-entered once the trend lines were recrossed shortly after I last posted. I'm now waiting to see if AUD and NZD continue their down trends due to inherent weakness or reverse due to USD weakness to give me guidance for EUR & GBP / AUD & NZD direction because AUD/USD is at RSI support but has not hit channel support, and NZD/USD has broken RSI support but is at channel support and both are stuck at their respective 76.4% Fibonaccis....

I am kind of waiting to see how far Kiwi is heading towards south..I would be very interested to go long from 77-74
With positive swap with such great numbers I can just wait to profit nicely.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #350
  • Aug 27, 2013 11:33pm Aug 27, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am kind of waiting to see how far Kiwi is heading towards south..I would be very interested to go long from 77-74 With positive swap with such great numbers I can just wait to profit nicely.
The trouble with Aussie, and particularly Kiwi, is the volatility of their moves. Once they decide on a direction their moves can be quite aggressive giving no opportunity for a late entry. I trailed out of all my positions and assumed those pairs would "rest" during the Asian session, but they decided to go for another run up on their own an hour ago.

It would be nice if I was able to take a position in both directions at this straddle-point with a relatively short stop for whichever direction proves to be wrong as a reversal or breakout will likely be significant moves. It's rare times like these that I wish I was with a broker that supported discrete trade bundling.

I suppose I could go long GBP pairs and short EUR pairs for similar effect. Still, for the time being I will sit on my hands and wait for confirmation of trend and hope for an opportunity to get in after the initial push.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #351
  • Aug 28, 2013 12:12am Aug 28, 2013 12:12am
Quoting KADC
{quote} The trouble with Aussie, and particularly Kiwi, is the volatility of their moves. Once they decide on a direction their moves can be quite aggressive giving no opportunity for a late entry. I trailed out of all my positions and assumed those pairs would "rest" during the Asian session, but they decided to go for another run up on their own an hour ago. It would be nice if I was able to take a position in both directions at this straddle-point with a relatively short stop for whichever direction proves to be wrong as a reversal or breakout...

Its the right thing to do to wait out.
I trade smaller lots with multiple entries so I can "sprinkle" my zones.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #352
  • Aug 28, 2013 12:20am Aug 28, 2013 12:20am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Kadc Its great that it worked out.I know I was not into it but I am glad you took the trade.I don't think that Syria possible attack which would be minor air missile fires is gonna weaken US dollar.In fact it might just boast it. I think Sept 18 is key date for Feds QE decision and I suspect it will happen that is reduction of QE.I have lot of Shorts on G/C and weaker Cable will certainly help. Looking at EN to short once again 1.7250 and above. Swissy is starting to look real good and I am building a nice long position to 94 I am glad...
I don't see the FED reducing QE when it appears to be working, particularly when Japan is aggressively devaluing the Yen and they need a weaker US$ for exports, something that is thwarted every time US$ becomes the flight to safety. QE is currently the only tool available since interest rates cannot be effectively lowered any further, and if they directed additional QE toward building infrastructure instead of filling bank coffers it could put the US economy back in its feet.

Pound-wise, Carney seems intent on forward planning which I believe will push the Pound up when he speaks this morning and I think this current move down is playing into a setup for reversal. Japan, China, and to a lesser degree, Russia, keep buying the Euro, thus my overall view of relative US weakness versus Euro and Pound strength.

The current Yen strength is just madness as far as I'm concerned, and I'm chomping at the bit to short it as I cannot justify long Yen trades on a currency that has publicly announced targets of 100 - 110 USD/JPY. Why anyone would choose it as the next-in-line for flight-to-safety as the US dollar falls I simply cannot fathom.

The failure of rising oil (and to a lesser degree, gold) to push CAD higher when the Canadian economy is stronger than most of its counterparts has me scratching my head, but I'm waiting for that shoe to drop and the Loonie to rise. Also, I must admit some bias as I make quite a few Amazon orders and the stronger the Loonie, the cheaper my purchases.

All that said, fundamentals seem to have less and less value to Forex trading so they are increasingly more of an afterthought for me. Time and again we'll see an excellent print followed by currency failure, and vice versa, so I try to avoid "big data" events and give greater emphasis to the non-event technicals, and to that end I prefer the lesser-traded pairs that aren't as influenced by currency rigging (knock wood).

Fortunately, gold and silver are being particularly well behaved lately which takes a lot of stress out of missed moves on currency pairs.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #353
  • Edited 12:45am Aug 28, 2013 12:34am | Edited 12:45am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I don't see the FED reducing QE when it appears to be working, particularly when Japan is aggressively devaluing the Yen and they need a weaker US$ for exports, something that is thwarted every time US$ becomes the flight to safety. QE is currently the only tool available since interest rates cannot be effectively lowered any further, and if they directed additional QE toward building infrastructure instead of filling bank coffers it could put the US economy back in its feet. Pound-wise, Carney seems intent on forward planning which I believe...

Great post KADC
What I have been reading QE can not go indifferently to long months ahead.It already added 2 trillion dollars to National debt.Its a unsustainable circumstance hence Feds will reduce from 85b a month to maybe 35 or less.Its a reduction not elimination at this time.
From economical perspective stronger dollar buys more Japanese cars not other way around.
I am heavy buys on Cad vs Cable.Aiming at 59.5 as TP and If Carney sounds dovish tomorrow market may just continue retrace.Most of Cad weakness lately has been attributed to weak numbers in month of August hopefully that changes in Sept.Fundamentals do effect.40% bank decisions on currency is based on fundamentals and only 16% on technical according to author of "bird watching in lion country" by Dirk du Toit and I trust this is the case.
Anyway could you post pairs that are less traded?
Thanks
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #354
  • Aug 28, 2013 12:56am Aug 28, 2013 12:56am
Cad DD is reduced to 30%
If my TP is hit will collect substantial pips over 2k
I may end up waiting 2more weeks but hoping sooner.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #355
  • Aug 28, 2013 1:21am Aug 28, 2013 1:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great post KADC What I have been reading QE can not go indifferently to long months ahead. ...
...Anyway could you post pairs that are less traded? Thanks
Any pair that has more than one major (USD, EUR, JPY, or GBP) are more highly traded, yet also tend to be "less behaved" with less-defined trending channels. i.e. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded pair and you'll see crazy reactions following a print followed by retracements a half hour later and ultimately returning to where it was at session open by the end of the trading day, and there is seldom (if ever) a clearly defined fractal channels between support and resistance of the primary channel.

Pairs with one major and one minor (i.e. AUD/EUR) tend to be "better behaved", particularly when both are acting as risk-on (minors are never risk-off), and pairs with two minors (i.e. NZD/CAD) tend to be the "best behaved" as far as I'm concerned, and usually have wonderfully well-defined fractal channels that rebound nicely off support and resistance of the primary channel.

I don't trade exotics (Peso, Rupy, etc.) so I can't speak for their behaviour as their low volume does not lend itself to the kind of RSI reliant trading signals that I rely on.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #356
  • Aug 28, 2013 1:35am Aug 28, 2013 1:35am
Quoting KADC
{quote} Any pair that has more than one major (USD, EUR, JPY, or GBP) are more highly traded, yet also tend to be "less behaved" with less-defined trending channels. i.e. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded pair and you'll see crazy reactions following a print followed by retracements a half hour later and ultimately returning to where it was at session open by the end of the trading day, and there is seldom (if ever) a clearly defined fractal channels between support and resistance of the primary channel. Pairs with one major and one minor (i.e....

KADC
Thanks for the insight.I honestly never traded 2 minors before.You kind of gave me an incentive. Reason I guess the spread on my broker is 6pips on minors and only 2pips on majors however if winning I can let go of 6pip spread.
I don't trade Euro/USD for same reasons you mentioned.EU is highly manipulated.
This has been very educational to me.Thank you KADC
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357
  • Aug 28, 2013 1:48am Aug 28, 2013 1:48am
Speaking of Major and minor
Euro/Aus just hit a major round number 1.50 and 200MA on monthly floating S/R
Very tempted to short
On weekly its a monster of a move
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #358
  • Aug 28, 2013 1:50am Aug 28, 2013 1:50am
Quoting Davit
{quote} KADC Thanks for the insight.I honestly never traded 2 minors before.You kind of gave me an incentive. Reason I guess the spread on my broker is 6pips on minors and only 2pips on majors however if winning I can let go of 6pip spread. I don't trade Euro/USD for same reasons you mentioned.EU is highly manipulated. This has been very educational to me.Thank you KADC
Oh, yes, the spread on minors is brutal. My broker doesn't charge spread (I pay commission), so the spread is just the "natural" difference between the bid and ask prices, though the commission is higher for less-traded pairs.

The spread on EUR/USD is always 0.00005 but GBP/NZD was up to 0.00200 the other day when volume was low and volatility was high and it's ranging between 0.00100 and 0.00050 right now as I write this.

...

AUD and NZD are really testing the limits of their ranges. It's hard to sit in the sidelines ...so I'm going to go watch a movie and have a meal so I'm not tempted to jump in prematurely.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #359
  • Edited 2:22am Aug 28, 2013 2:02am | Edited 2:22am
Quoting KADC
{quote} Oh, yes, the spread on minors is brutal. My broker doesn't charge spread (I pay commission), so the spread is just the "natural" difference between the bid and ask prices, though the commission is higher for less-traded pairs. The spread on EUR/USD is always 0.00005 but GBP/NZD was up to 0.00200 the other day when volume was low and volatility was high and it's ranging between 0.00100 and 0.00050 right now as I write this. ... AUD and NZD are really testing the limits of their ranges. It's hard to sit in the sidelines ...so I'm going to...

Enjoy your leisure time.Thanks Green pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360
  • Edited 1:29pm Aug 28, 2013 1:02pm | Edited 1:29pm
Wished I did short EA at 1.50 dropped clear 100pips overnight....

Moving on.Since lot of politics effect currency its worth thinking why Syria attack is basically nothing significant.
Striking missiles from sea and air is safest way without getting troops on the ground.
It was written (Aljazeera article) that Obama wants to punish Assad but does not want opposition to win....

"The policy, according to Mark Perry, a foreign policy analyst and author of several books on military history, can be translated as follows: "The U.S. would like to see Bashar al-Assad lose, but they don't want to see the opposition win"




Rather pointless operation to begin with.Brits are getting involve as well and I hope this causes weakness on the pound.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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