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  • #8,481
  • Aug 22, 2013 3:34am Aug 22, 2013 3:34am
French Flash Manufacturing PMI:
+10(1/3 order)
+10 (1/3 order)
+6 (1/3 order)

German Flash Manufacturing PMI:
+10 (1/3 order)
+20 (1/3 order)
+25 (1/3 order)

opened by pending orders
  • #8,482
  • Edited 4:11am Aug 22, 2013 3:51am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting Lukaszmiami
{quote} No, 2 min before official time it's standard in this case. Reuters subscribers pay cash to get news earlier Rising triangle? I saw falling circle.... Sometimes all those candle patterns are just funny For me -7,+21. Let's call it a day!
Tony's trades: -8 pips French Flash, +21 Pips German Flash (only long, 2:57 and 3:27)

Long and short trade (I recommend to cover both sides): +13 Pips (+21 short,-8long) French Flash, +13 Pips (-8 short, +21 long) German Flash

Please be aware of good volatility today after news. This is not usually the case after French Flash. At all trading score today was better than average last months.

Why french flash performed so well today ? (at least short account) French Flash worked well cause it sunk under 50 points, means bias is negative. So it dropped more than usual and goes only one side: short. Estimates were >50 (positive above 50), so you can speak of a wrong (higher) estimate which is in <25% the case (as i mentioned most times estimates fit more or less news release). So today French Flash worked much better than usual case.

@Lukaszmiami: A rising triangle is when here today: higher lows and no higher high but alomst hits high, indicates breakout, so I recommended to stay in, not to BE.you have to differ between chart patterns which have an outcome of 50/50 and better ones on backtesting for example. Candlesticks and Patters also everyone who use it should backtest it (so have >56/44 quote, so it's worth to look at it, other 50/50 or 48/52, not worth, lots of them).
  • #8,483
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:10am Aug 22, 2013 4:10am
Dude i know what rising triangle is, my post was ironic, im in this business +4 years and i saw a lot of funny drawings on charts (been there ,done that). The point is, that in my opinion it is impossible to backtest trades based on candles/patterns. For me this candle looks like a pinbar, for you its doji or smth else. You know what i mean? Candle patterns are not numbers (1 is 1, pin could be doji), to many "almost hit high" stuff for me.

Have a good day guys.
  • #8,484
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:25am Aug 22, 2013 4:25am
Update:
French flash: -8.
German flash: still floating at +10, SL is at 0

As you can notice, in both cases, we had a pure elevation / drop of about 20 pips after the first minutes of both news hence, putting you in an inevitable advantage by trading with a minimal SL + 0SL retraction. Happy life
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,485
  • Aug 24, 2013 5:19am Aug 24, 2013 5:19am
Upcoming for the week:
German Ifo Business Climate, Tue Aug 27 4:00am N.Y. Time

How to trade:
-MARKET BUY ORDER 2 MINUTES BEFORE NEWS WITH 8 PIPS SL / TP 50 PIPS
-RETRACT SL TO 0 AS SOON AS TRADE GOES IN YOUR FAVOR

This is our money-maker! Don't miss it.
Trade at your own risk, market could go in an opposite way.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,486
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:10am Aug 24, 2013 10:10am
Quoting Tony112
Upcoming for the week: German Ifo Business Climate, Tue Aug 27 4:00am N.Y. Time How to trade: -MARKET BUY ORDER 2 MINUTES BEFORE NEWS WITH 8 PIPS SL / TP 50 PIPS -RETRACT SL TO 0 AS SOON AS TRADE GOES IN YOUR FAVOR This is our money-maker! Don't miss it. Trade at your own risk, market could go in an opposite way.
When can you consider moving the SL to breakeven? Is it when the price has moved [stoploss-distance] away from opening price in our favor?
  • #8,487
  • Aug 25, 2013 2:18pm Aug 25, 2013 2:18pm
Tony,

Are you still going to post video reports?
  • #8,488
  • Aug 25, 2013 11:42pm Aug 25, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} When can you consider moving the SL to breakeven? Is it when the price has moved [stoploss-distance] away from opening price in our favor?

you have repeat what Tony has stated, yes move SL to BEP once possible, whenever your position has been profitable,

example, buy @1.3380, once price hit 1.3390 you can already move SL to 1.3383

CMIIW
  • #8,489
  • Aug 25, 2013 11:43pm Aug 25, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting Tony112
Upcoming for the week: German Ifo Business Climate, Tue Aug 27 4:00am N.Y. Time How to trade: -MARKET BUY ORDER 2 MINUTES BEFORE NEWS WITH 8 PIPS SL / TP 50 PIPS -RETRACT SL TO 0 AS SOON AS TRADE GOES IN YOUR FAVOR This is our money-maker! Don't miss it. Trade at your own risk, market could go in an opposite way.

just to make sure, so we trade EUR/USD right?
  • #8,490
  • Aug 26, 2013 12:25am Aug 26, 2013 12:25am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} When can you consider moving the SL to breakeven? Is it when the price has moved [stoploss-distance] away from opening price in our favor?

As soon as you are 10 pips up
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,491
  • Aug 26, 2013 12:25am Aug 26, 2013 12:25am
Quoting laoshi
{quote} just to make sure, so we trade EUR/USD right?

yes
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,492
  • Aug 26, 2013 12:26am Aug 26, 2013 12:26am
Quoting Lukaszmiami
Tony, Are you still going to post video reports?

For sure, can't wait In the Fall
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,493
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:47am Aug 26, 2013 7:47am
Today news: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (not very good to trade, but past several monthes shows opportunities for 10-20 pips)

EU:
+9(1/3 order)
+10 (1/3 order)
+10 (1/3 order)

UJ:
+11(1/3 order)
+16 (1/3 order)
+16 (1/3 order)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 26.08.png Size: 95 KB
  • #8,494
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:20pm Aug 26, 2013 9:20pm
Our flight is in less than 6 hours, do not miss it!
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,495
  • Aug 27, 2013 3:03am Aug 27, 2013 3:03am
That was a little depressing haha. Took 5 pips cause I had a feeling it would reverse...
Attached Image
  • #8,496
  • Aug 27, 2013 3:05am Aug 27, 2013 3:05am
FAILED!
  • #8,497
  • Aug 27, 2013 3:06am Aug 27, 2013 3:06am
no worries....

waiting for other trade

waiting for other info Tony, thx
  • #8,498
  • Aug 27, 2013 4:39am Aug 27, 2013 4:39am
Result two accounts:
long 13375 (SL 13383)
short 13375 (SL13367)

short got stopped out (-8).
long got stopped out at BE.

Tony result:
long 13375 (SL 13367)
long got stopped out at BE.

Although this is not correct (datas came 15 mintues later if you watch calendar), this is the correct entry.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NExt entry:
4:14 Datas release

Two accounts:
Shorts got stopped (-8)
Long got stopped BE.

Tony result:
longs got stopped out (-8)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

at all: two accounts -16 pips
Tony: - 8 pips

Entrys: 3:59, 4:14.

On average IFO performed worse today cause of delay of news coming out. 2nd: IFO busted shorts on delay at 4:00 with a rising candle.
IFO does move wrong direction, probably because market counted this result in:

Estimate 107.1 , real 107.2 ....

so no surprise.
See you next time (please reread backtests or do it by yourself).
  • #8,499
  • Aug 27, 2013 6:20am Aug 27, 2013 6:20am
-8 pips on German IFO. Can't win them all.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,500
  • Aug 27, 2013 6:24am Aug 27, 2013 6:24am
BE for me, but im 135 pips up since 27.07.2013. Tony i will soon buy you some fancy car, i think that Bentley Continental GT will be ok

135 is not much, but snowballing acc do the job!

Im waiting for CB Consumer Confidence, what about you guys?
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