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Simple Sma-based strategy

  • #141
  • Aug 21, 2013 10:17pm Aug 21, 2013 10:17pm
whatfx,

SL for all 4 positions is the same, see post 1.

if you close out the last entry when the next entry is entered, you completely change the system.
you will have a large number of smaller losses and if the profits will make up for that is doubtful.

your stop losses will be smaller only if all 4 entries end up in a loss and from my back testing A/U so far from Jan 1 till June 3rd on the 1H TF that only happened once on the 12th of April.

maybe you could backtest your way and report back?
  • #142
  • Aug 21, 2013 11:54pm Aug 21, 2013 11:54pm
SL is fixed from 1st entry.
  • #143
  • Aug 22, 2013 12:08am Aug 22, 2013 12:08am
TP for 2nd entry or 3rd entry = The sum of profit in money of 1st entry + some pips
  • #144
  • Edited 1:53am Aug 22, 2013 1:40am | Edited 1:53am
smilee,

could you have a look at post 138........thanks

re post 137: 50 pips TP is more profitable than 30 pips TP for A/U 1H TF.

50TP: profit 2013 year to June 3rd = 1,681 pips with only 1 loss.
back testing done manually = headache
  • #145
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:02am Aug 22, 2013 2:02am
yonnie, see my post 142.
  • #146
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:06am Aug 22, 2013 2:06am
thanks, understood...........thought your reply was for whatfx.
  • #147
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:45am Aug 22, 2013 2:45am
Hi Smilee89,

From last 10 days i follow this thread and testing your strategy.
last 10 days i trade around 15 trades and all won but i closed with small profit.
can you please give some idea for TP..... still confusing.
  • #148
  • Aug 22, 2013 3:12pm Aug 22, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting yonnie
A/U 1H TF. 50TP: profit 2013 year to June 3rd = 1,681 pips with only 1 loss. back testing done manually = headache
but then: losses on July 16 and 29, August 7 and 19
totally 5 losses at around 680 a pop = 3,400 pips


profits till June 3rd without that April 12 loss = 2,345 pips.
extrapolate profits for a rough estimate Jan1 till now 3,500 pips.

so profits of 3,500 minus losses of 3,400 = 100 pip profit for this year.
  • #149
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:30pm Aug 22, 2013 4:30pm
Hi smilee89, first trade with your system, and took TP on it.

i know my entry isnt exactly dead on the SMA, but it works, and i did it on a 1m chart too, hopefully more to come.
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  • #150
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:53am Aug 23, 2013 10:53am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} but then: losses on July 16 and 29, August 7 and 19 totally 5 losses at around 680 a pop = 3,400 pips profits till June 3rd without that April 12 loss = 2,345 pips. extrapolate profits for a rough estimate Jan1 till now 3,500 pips. so profits of 3,500 minus losses of 3,400 = 100 pip profit for this year.



Yonnie are u saying that the all the profits made were lost leaving you with only 100 pips profit.
  • #151
  • Edited 3:20pm Aug 23, 2013 12:13pm | Edited 3:20pm
hi holy pips,

I got to be careful here.
these are just figures for H1 TF on A/U and I have no figures for other TF`s of A/U, let alone for the other pairs smilee is trading.

a loss with 4 entries is quite large, in my case 680 pips on average.
profits at 2,345 pips came from 16 trades in the Jan-June period = 146.5 pips per successful trade on average.

I might be able to optimize the TP`s for entry 1, 2 and 3, but definitely not for entry 4.
you would get more losses that way and those should be avoided like the plague.
I avoided 1 loss with a bit of fancy footwork.
I did not bother with the optimizing after seeing the amount of losses.

so yes, I was left with only 100 pips.
those 100 pips will most probably be less due to more losses in the period June-August and not being able to profit while the losing trades were playing out.

a big problem for this system is the amount of pips for the TP.
it has to be such that in almost 100% of the trades the TP will be hit.
so in my case 50 pips TP is the maximum I can confidently incorporate.

but what about most other times when price goes up 10/40/80 pips beyond my TP of 50 pips?
if you can capture part of those, you`ll be away.
but then you wont need this system anyway, because you will be an accomplished trader.
  • #152
  • Aug 24, 2013 12:17am Aug 24, 2013 12:17am
Hi smilee89 very good approach!

to sum it up the smas are merely indicative levels one look at to make trade decisions.
you can choose to have it or not.

whats more impt here is the trade management shared by smilee89.
which is why he/she stated... no pip target.

one thing id reccomend.

Noticed the approach is largely centred on managing drawdowns. You may want to look for opportunities to buy/sell into the winners as well, esp when trend is on your side. of course the trend can turn as you buy/sell into your winners. But managing those should play a part in the plan as well. Just something i learnt from fti a long time ago, maximizing your wins.

your approach is large similar to mine... i think. I just love buying/selling into trend retracements.

Good luck!
  • #153
  • Aug 24, 2013 12:24am Aug 24, 2013 12:24am
Quoting jest1081
Hi smilee89 very good approach! to sum it up the smas are merely indicative levels one look at to make trade decisions. you can choose to have it or not. whats more impt here is the trade management shared by smilee89. which is why he/she stated... no pip target. one thing id reccomend. Noticed the approach is largely centred on managing drawdowns. You may want to look for opportunities to buy/sell into the winners as well, esp when trend is on your side. of course the trend can turn as you buy/sell into your winners. But managing those should play...
Thank you.
  • #154
  • Aug 24, 2013 7:42pm Aug 24, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting yonnie
whatfx, SL for all 4 positions is the same, see post 1. if you close out the last entry when the next entry is entered, you completely change the system. you will have a large number of smaller losses and if the profits will make up for that is doubtful. your stop losses will be smaller only if all 4 entries end up in a loss and from my back testing A/U so far from Jan 1 till June 3rd on the 1H TF that only happened once on the 12th of April. maybe you could backtest your way and report back?

not at all. if you close out the previous trade when entering the new position, this will minimise your losses and you will still make profit on the new position. test it and you will see. it is better to do this than keep the previous positions open and let the losses compound and spiral into a gigantic loss of pips.
  • #155
  • Edited Aug 25, 2013 9:21am Aug 24, 2013 8:53pm | Edited Aug 25, 2013 9:21am
whatfx,

your idea will be interesting if there are too many 4-entry losses.

in my testing: TP 50 pips........generally the entries were 30 pips apart on average, so on a 2-entry trade I made 50 pips on the 2nd entry and 20 pips on the 1st entry.
in other words: you close out at a loss on the next entry of 30 pips. price goes up and you make 50-30 = 20 pips.
if price goes up after triggering the next entry, I can still make a profit on the entry before that one. and my profit would be 50 + 20 = 70 pips.

a big fat difference in my backtest were the 1-entry trades:
smilee reported 200 1-entry trades and 100 2-3-4 entry trades.
my backtest showed only 3 1-entry trades and 14 2-3-4 entry trades.
if more testing would show the same, I would drop the 1st entry as it was not really that profitable.
but I would look into optimising the TP for the 1st entry first.
btw: I don't know about other TF or pairs; this is only for H1 TF A/U

whatfx: I don't mind testing it out, but could you give me your numbers first over a decent number of trades?

thanks
  • #156
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:01am Aug 25, 2013 5:01am
Quoting whatfx
{quote} not at all. if you close out the previous trade when entering the new position, this will minimise your losses and you will still make profit on the new position. test it and you will see. it is better to do this than keep the previous positions open and let the losses compound and spiral into a gigantic loss of pips.
No this is just stupid bad illogic, why don't you just buy less lots save your spread charges.

the concept is sooner or later the trend will continue then those first positions will hit the TP, simple.
p
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #157
  • Aug 25, 2013 6:57am Aug 25, 2013 6:57am
Quoting whatfx
{quote} not at all. if you close out the previous trade when entering the new position, this will minimise your losses and you will still make profit on the new position. test it and you will see. it is better to do this than keep the previous positions open and let the losses compound and spiral into a gigantic loss of pips.
how can it really spiral if you include 1:1:3:6 all into your MM?
unless you're the type thats bound to do revenge trading, i think whatever was presented is pretty much very straight forward.
  • #158
  • Aug 25, 2013 4:05pm Aug 25, 2013 4:05pm
let whatfx speak out please........

you never know what even you guys might learn from him!
  • #159
  • Aug 25, 2013 4:11pm Aug 25, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting yonnie
let whatfx speak out please........ you never know what even you guys might learn from him!

Taking losses on positions which if the trend holds will still make a profit is illogical, end of story.

Odds are 1 of the trends will hold and there small lot size makes them not worth selling.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #160
  • Edited 11:42pm Aug 25, 2013 10:49pm | Edited 11:42pm
Hello everybody,

I have been reading some of the threads and I would like to join the community, since I can see for your comments that most of you are serious, generous and honest about your quest to master Forex. As most beginners, I am still struggling to find the strategy that best suits me, but I have found two tools that seem to be good, one is an indicator, the other an EA. The indicator works well in only one time frame for EURUSD (5 min) and the EA only in flat markets (but the EA does not know how to recognize them). I would like to know if anyone with coding skills would be willing to try to automatize the indicator and fix the EA with my suggestions and any other ideas to improve them that can be spotted by other members. I believe that they have potential and, together, we can make them work to our advantage.

Please let me know if I am welcomed and if any of you is interested. I can upload them or tell where you can find them (they are free).

Thanks and keep with the good work,

AimaSaiko
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