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AUD/USD

  • #62,841
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:47am Aug 23, 2013 9:47am
Quoting bskwak1124
{quote} Took too long, 12hrs but truly, finally, paid off, if this 0.904 holds, iwill start to long, tp 0.92, of course if 0.904 holds until monday asia session....
We are in same camp. 904 is holding pretty strongly at first look though
  • #62,842
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:54am Aug 23, 2013 9:54am
Quoting bskwak1124
{quote} Took too long, 12hrs but truly, finally, paid off, if this 0.904 holds, iwill start to long, tp 0.92, of course if 0.904 holds until monday asia session....
agreed i got some long term i am holding for 93 and potentially 96 (although not likely)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #62,843
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:59am Aug 23, 2013 9:59am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} We are in same camp. 904 is holding pretty strongly at first look though
Yes, but now is still trading up and down, decided to walk away for a bit and trade again on monday morning and lets see what Jackson Hole meeting can help us. Anyway wish you good trades
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,844
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:03am Aug 23, 2013 10:03am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} agreed i got some long term i am holding for 93 and potentially 96 (although not likely)
I have similar target range, my first TP is 0.925, 2nd is 0.955 "like you said, unlikely since the election is coming" but i m not in yet, i closed my long from 0.9 tp at 0.903 since the volatility might continue... Monday might give us a better view.... I wish 0.904 can be hold through Monday so that i can start my long. Anyway, wish you good trades
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,845
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:12am Aug 23, 2013 10:12am
I am still holding on my long. USD strength is an overbought story IMO. I am not believing in USD strength that isnt substantiated with surefooted recovery.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,846
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:30am Aug 23, 2013 10:30am
Hello,

I'll hold my shorts. Despite bad data from US Aussie don't have enough strength to cross ,9030.

Good luck All

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} agreed i got some long term i am holding for 93 and potentially 96 (although not likely)
  • #62,847
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:51am Aug 23, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Mimir
Hello, I'll hold my shorts. Despite bad data from US Aussie don't have enough strength to cross ,9030. Good luck All {quote}
good day to you, Mimir

0.92840 is where I would like to be over the coming weeks. What is your short target?

All success to you
  • #62,848
  • Aug 23, 2013 11:55am Aug 23, 2013 11:55am
Quoting Mimir
Hello, I'll hold my shorts. Despite bad data from US Aussie don't have enough strength to cross ,9030. Good luck All {quote}
I completely agree with you .. I held short thru the data and still holding short.
  • #62,849
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:48pm Aug 23, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting card
Be careful everyone. If you're long, I'd suggest getting out and waiting for a better entry. I think we'll take out the 8990 lows we made a couple of hours earlier.
Hopefully some of you got in long below 8990. Here is my analysis. Vouch if you like it. : )

1. AUD is oversold in the short term. This move lower was a fake. We should be headed higher in the next 2 weeks. Targeting 9450 or so. Buy the dips in small quantities and add to your position if the market moves your way.

2. China and emerging markets are still bearish in the medium/long term but these things take time to play out. So, over the longer term, be careful about going long AUD. I would not be long AUD over 9550.

3. Fed will likely taper in Sep. Now that they know what the market is expecting, they will do it or at least guide the market in that direction and taper at the end of the year. Otherwise volatility will go through the roof. Remember that US housing is doing really well even though mortgage rates went up a lot. Ignore the bad number from today. It takes a lot more than one bad number to reverse trends.
  • #62,850
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:29pm Aug 23, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting card
{quote} Ignore the bad number from today. It takes a lot more than one bad number to reverse trends.
As well as it takes more to make one.

So a couple of scenarios.
Scenario 1
1. Yields Up 2. Gold Up 3. Dollar down
Scenario 2
1. Yields down 2. Dollar Down 3. Gold unch
Scenario 3
1. Yields Up 2. Dollar up 3. Gold Down or unch



Scenario 1 = Inflation expectation
Scenario 2= More easing
Scenario 3= Recovery

So far Gold is moving higher...http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...aks-above-1400
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,851
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:48pm Aug 23, 2013 2:48pm
Furthermore...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=lJU which is M2 and look at the frekin Velocity...http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=lJV

INteresting
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,852
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:03pm Aug 23, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Furthermore... http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=lJU which is M2 and look at the frekin Velocity...http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=lJV INteresting
My monetary economics is a little iffy, but isn't a low velosity of money bad? From what I understand is that it is basically the turnover rate of spent money, thus if the velocity is low, than everybody is hoarding this massive amounts of liquidity that is "suppose" to help the economy.

(if I am wrong, please let me know. That is just what I have gathered leading up to monetary econ.)
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,853
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:08pm Aug 23, 2013 3:08pm
velocity of money (also called velocity of circulation and, much earlier, currency) is the average frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services produced domestically in a specific period of time.

Via wikipedia.

Hence the inflation expectation. Rate of money printing has risen while the frequency at which that very same money is being used to increase production has declined
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,854
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:16pm Aug 23, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting Neqrotik
velocity of money (also called velocity of circulation and, much earlier, currency) is the average frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services produced domestically in a specific period of time. Via wikipedia. Hence the inflation expectation. Rate of money printing has risen while the frequency at which that very same money is being used to increase production has declined
So I assume I was right in laymens terms lol. basically, low velocity = nobody spending on shite. But how can that be? We're American
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,855
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:30pm Aug 23, 2013 3:30pm
Haha.

Well. Thats when we get more granular in the data, inflation expectations, etc etc.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,856
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:29pm Aug 23, 2013 9:29pm
Quoting Mimir
Hello, I'll hold my shorts. Despite bad data from US Aussie don't have enough strength to cross ,9030. Good luck All {quote}
Aussie will go up at some point so just remember taking profits is crucial.

Trust me AUD will see 9250 again.

The only question is whether it will see 8850 before 9250. Well 8925 is damn close to 8850.. So hopefully 8925 will hold.

If you want to short to 82/8300 I'd say it would better to wait for a sell zone... Like 9250
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #62,857
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:03pm Aug 23, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Aussie will go up at some point so just remember taking profits is crucial. Trust me AUD will see 9250 again. The only question is whether it will see 8850 before 9250. Well 8925 is damn close to 8850.. So hopefully 8925 will hold. If you want to short to 82/8300 I'd say it would better to wait for a sell zone... Like 9250
ya, I trust you. I am long even at 0.903...
  • #62,858
  • Aug 24, 2013 1:26am Aug 24, 2013 1:26am
In short term I see ,8900 area for TP. I think magic word "TAPERING" and every day closer September will do it.
In bigger TF i'll wait for some FED declaration. In case of rebound after low test in my opinion we don't cross ,935- ,94 area where i'll looking again short oportunity(or even lower).

Only my 2 cents. GL

Quoting TauTrader
{quote} good day to you, Mimir 0.92840 is where I would like to be over the coming weeks. What is your short target? All success to you
  • #62,859
  • Aug 24, 2013 4:21am Aug 24, 2013 4:21am
If there is nothing special outcome from this meeting, we can look to long AUD, or since NZ trade balance will be out, is good to long that pair to, short NZ/AUD
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,860
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:37am Aug 24, 2013 10:37am
Very Mixed, Keep your stops close or trade size small and add later.

PA is not strong, No trade Zone we are in.

This can flip on a Dime..............
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