Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 67 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,321
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:32am Aug 23, 2013 3:32am
Looking to go short on EURUSD brand new H4 supply area that removed previous demand. Price is bouncing off D1 supply area and WK supply area as you can see with the different style colored trendlines painted by the rectangle extender indicator.

I tried a H1 short on the euro but it's holding and doing nothing so I closed it and waiting for the upper setup on H4.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,322
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:37am Aug 23, 2013 3:37am
Quoting wbh
Hi Sebkor6, how did your AUDCAD trades go? This is a screen shot of mine before SL was hit and wondering if I should have done anything different? like TP earlier after second attempt to make LL. The first entry was from H4 supply inside D1 supply so I was looking for 200 pips just above the H4 demand and second on H1 a continuation trade. cheers Wayne{image}
Hi wbh,

Yes, price hits my BE in this trade. I see that on your screen, you had like 2:1 reward already, so you should place your SL order to BE. Price wasn't able to create LL. Now i thing that we should wait that price will clarify the situation. Will it brake the daily supply zone? Let's wait and see.
  • #1,323
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:43am Aug 23, 2013 3:43am
I had taken this H1 spedbump supply zone yesterday on GBPUSD. I was positive this morning but I decided to close it for 2 reasons:

  1. Price didn't drop further down and too much trading underneath. That's not a good sign.
  2. GDP news at 9:30 a.m gmt for the pound. I guess people was waiting for the news to come up

Trade was according to the rules but it didn't drop as I would have liked. Glad I closed the trade this morning with some pips, since the H1 supply level is now absorbed.
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,324
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:45am Aug 23, 2013 3:45am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Hi wbh, Yes, price hits my BE in this trade. I see that on your screen, you had like 2:1 reward already, so you should place your SL order to BE. Price wasn't able to create LL. Now i thing that we should wait that price will clarify the situation. Will it brake the daily supply zone? Let's wait and see.
thanks for the reply, yes that sounds ideal and the first higher trade should have SL placed there too @2nd trades BE.
  • #1,325
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:58am Aug 23, 2013 3:58am
Some IF THEN scenarios for GBPCAD

  1. IF 1.6500 is solidly broken with momentum, THEN we can have nice opportunities to go long at
  2. IF price reacts from this D1 supply area (top of the channel) with nice brand new H4 supply areas, we could have nice opportunities to short GBPCAD

Lots of room to rally if 1.6500 is solidly broken with momentum after such a long period of consolidation on GBPCAD.
Let's watch this pair closely and see if we can get some trades. My first short failed and continued rallying higher.

Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,326
  • Aug 23, 2013 4:09am Aug 23, 2013 4:09am
gbp aud sell, h1 supply after reaction of weekly supply
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  • #1,327
  • Aug 23, 2013 4:13am Aug 23, 2013 4:13am
I've been trying to catch this whole move up on USDCAD on H4 but no entries. I am posting these charts so that you understand a bit better what kind of opportunities SD levels offer and how patient you want to be. Sometimes you will not have any opportunties on the way up, others you will have plenty. You just have to take all the opportunities that you see and follow the rules and trading plan.

It's funny. I was triggered long at 1.0308, moved my SL to breakeven but price came back and took me out. This is why at higher timeframe areas I will start having a much more ample breathing room, like 4 or 5:1 breakeven at D1/WK SD areas. Look at where my entry was and what price did.

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On the way up we had rally had no opportunities on H1 to go long at. But yesterday I think Forex Lion mentioned a H1 speedbump demand area. I saw it but I didn't take it because my rules require that a speedbump demand needs at least 1 red candle on its basing. On my broker there was not such a candle, it was on his.
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Now price is too high in the curve and I'm not allowed to buy unless the higher timeframe areas are broken. What I will do is wait for some nice short setups if they happen, else waiting for higher timeframe areas to be taken out. Whatever happens first I will do.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,328
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:21am Aug 23, 2013 5:21am
Quoting sebkor6
gbp aud sell, h1 supply after reaction of weekly supply {image}
I didn't take that level because GBPUSD is spending too much time at the support (demand being respected), and the H1 trendline was solidly broken. It was against the rules, so my robot-like 1 neuron brain didn't take it!

Can it work? Of course yes, you never know. Just trying to follow the rules.
Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,329
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:41am Aug 23, 2013 5:41am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I didn't take that level because GBPUSD is spending too much time at the support (demand being respected), and the H1 trendline was solidly broken. It was against the rules, so my robot-like 1 neuron brain didn't take it! Can it work? Of course yes, you never know. Just trying to follow the rules. Alfonso {image}
thank's for your answer. Every trade is a lesson.
  • #1,330
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:19am Aug 23, 2013 6:19am
Alfonso! I love this way of trading. In this morning i took a trade on eurusd h1 demand with m5 confirmation trade. I decided that m5 level is too large for me and i took original level on m1 chart Risk: 2,1 pips, Profit 15 pips. I like that. Its the same as h4 or h1 trading but i have to be careful about news.
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  • #1,331
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:28am Aug 23, 2013 6:28am
Hey guys,

Here is a look of USD Index chart.

We can see on Daily chart that price is compressing. Will it break the current supply area? Well if it does, it could go to the next one higher.
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Weekly chart:
We can see that we are in a uptrend, will it break it down? I'm sceptical for now.
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My view is bullish on USD for now. What you guys think of it? feel free to comment.
Alfonso, if you think it's not appropriate, dont hesitate to tell me, but I think it's good to know what's going on with USD Index when we trade USD crosses pairs.

Have a nice Friday,

Mfinab
  • #1,332
  • Edited 8:38am Aug 23, 2013 6:35am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting panoramia
Looking to go short on EURUSD brand new H4 supply area that removed previous demand. Price is bouncing off D1 supply area and WK supply area as you can see with the different style colored trendlines painted by the rectangle extender indicator. I tried a H1 short on the euro but it's holding and doing nothing so I closed it and waiting for the upper setup on H4. Alfonso {image}
Hello Alfonzo,

First post here at this great thread. I am a longtime VSA trader but just new into the whole S/D zone trading. I have been spending time watching Sam's video's as well as yours and reading through the thread. I have also spent some time at the Ace and RTM forums as well as the PIE thread from here at FF trying to soak it all in. I like your robotic way of going about taking your trading and setting your zones, emotionless and straight to the point.

I am watching for the same EU short that you mention in the quoted post. See attached my 4 hour short with my pending already in place from last night before I went to bed. That is a lovely fresh RBD zone sitting overhead.

My zone below is a tad different than yours. I use the lowest spike to the highest body for the demand zones which on lower TF's works really well but I am struggling a bit on whether this is still the way to go on HTF. I see that you have the whole body of the lower candle marked which is what I had but the zone was so wide for 4 hr that I tightened it to just the wicks.

Any thoughts or comments would be greatly appreciated.

Keep up the great work.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,333
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:45am Aug 23, 2013 6:45am
dear panoramia, could you please post supply and demand area for EJ..would like to see your analysis in this pair..thanks a lot
  • #1,334
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:49am Aug 23, 2013 6:49am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I didn't take that level because GBPUSD is spending too much time at the support (demand being respected), and the H1 trendline was solidly broken. It was against the rules, so my robot-like 1 neuron brain didn't take it! Can it work? Of course yes, you never know. Just trying to follow the rules. Alfonso {image}
sometimes luck is all we need .

Price already at BE so there will be no loss.
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  • #1,335
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:53am Aug 23, 2013 6:53am
GBPUSD ----> take a look... (Current +125pips avg)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,336
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:55am Aug 23, 2013 6:55am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} sometimes luck is all we need . Price already at BE so there will be no loss. {image}
Hi Sebastien, nice entry! I'm short since 2 days on this one, my cost avg is 7357.

Mfinab
  • #1,337
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:56am Aug 23, 2013 6:56am
Quoting mfinab
GBPUSD ----> take a look... (Current +125pips avg) {image}
GREAT !!!

Congratulations
  • #1,338
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:37am Aug 23, 2013 7:37am
took eur aud short.

Price is in weekly and daily supply. We have h4 confirmation (NEW supply). Let's wait and see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,339
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:39am Aug 23, 2013 7:39am
Quoting panoramia
I've been trying to catch this whole move up on USDCAD on H4 but no entries. I am posting these charts so that you understand a bit better what kind of opportunities SD levels offer and how patient you want to be. Sometimes you will not have any opportunties on the way up, others you will have plenty. You just have to take all the opportunities that you see and follow the rules and trading plan. It's funny. I was triggered long at 1.0308, moved my SL to breakeven but price came back and took me out. This is why at higher timeframe areas I will start...
Where was your initial stop loss?
:: everything is awesome ::
  • #1,340
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:03am Aug 23, 2013 8:03am
Quoting panoramia
Looking to go short on EURUSD brand new H4 supply area that removed previous demand. Price is bouncing off D1 supply area and WK supply area as you can see with the different style colored trendlines painted by the rectangle extender indicator. I tried a H1 short on the euro but it's holding and doing nothing so I closed it and waiting for the upper setup on H4. Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso,,, isn't that H4 zone you marked as Brand new (32 pips) a reaction to an older one dated 20th of Feb at around 2 am GMT.
sorry i can't provide image my set up is different than yours since i use Ninja.
Thank you
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