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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #26,121
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:47pm Aug 20, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting binnie
@ FUIYONG {image} {image} I am only guessing what you were seeing there Fuiyong and I know my Charts will be slightly different to yours but the formation of the candles leading to your question will be similar. If you are looking to trade Phillip's H4 Macd method, it is very important that the Macd is used to confirm a trade entry and the actual trigger for entry is the close of the current candle. The motion of Price is the most significant point to the system and on my chart, I can not see any indication that there is a trend for me to look...
Hi Binnie,

Thank you for your reply, certainly appreciate that. I have a few points to make. I am not arguing with you as I do know you are kind to be helping me. I am writing what I understand and I still welcome feedback and correction as I might have misunderstood what I though I have already understand. It is through correction that I will learn. Agree?

Ok let's go to the points. With regards to post 26115, yes that was what the chart and entry point I was referring (at the close of the 0000hr candle)

Now to post 26116, referring to the first chart - at the close of the entry candle (0000hr), the MACD was pointing upwards. I have a screen short of that chart but I could not post it here as told you yesterday I don’t know what went wrong but the thread does not allow me to post chart. The one you posted was take hours later and that MACD pattern has changed. The MACD on the chart I have at the close of the 0000hr candle was indeed pointed upward. I did use the MACD as entry conformation as it was pointed upward.

The next point about pull back for conformation entry – my understanding is this, price (on the 0000hr entry candle) pulled back to 21ema then it went away from 21ema (all happened at the same 0000hr candle). And if I have understood Philip Nel correct, whenever price is moving away from the 21ema, that where the high probability trade is. So at the close of the 0000hr candle I made the entry, that when the price was moving away from 21ema. I set my stoploss about 8 points below the 21ema (being aware that price has the tendency to pull back to the 21ema again). And I did that entry after MACD confirmation.

Result: yes I was taken out, I lost 24pip in that trade. And frustrating thing is the moment I was taken out price went up for 60 or more pips.

About chart posting, do I remember correctly to post a chart, I click on “upload from computer” and it will lead me to my folder where I can load my chart? Mine does not do that it just bring me to another page of the forecfactory website. Do you know how I can contact the technical team because I need someone to fix the problem for me?

Thank once again for taking my question. I hope I have posted about the trade is clear to you.

FY
  • #26,122
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:51pm Aug 20, 2013 9:51pm
Quoting binnie
I hate it when this happens Nobody to blame but ME - been waiting for some nice momentum on this one , then when the Rythym dances off the *8 & closes through the * 89 and the Macd is screaming for me to play , I am absent from the screen trying to arrange tickets to the Bruce Springsteen Concert in Auckland next March. ( LOL - what a dumb-ass ). {image}
Missed this trade on the H1 too. I've been waiting for it to bounce off the 21.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
  • #26,123
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:22am Aug 22, 2013 4:22am
Quoting edge-t
Very interesting explanation, Binnie. Got a few questions. I don't trade the H4 now, moved to the H1, since I am an impatient person by natural---probably a bad thing for retail forex, but it allows me to make more mistakes and learn faster----at least that's what I think. I take maybe 1-2 trades a day. Btw, I use a 50SMA instead of 89. Going by your explanation, I take it that if you see a downslope on the MACD from left to right, you would not have taken the next trade---cause it's not a TC in your opinion? Am I right in saying that?(Like the...
Hi there Edge,
I have tried to answer your queries by using snaps of my charts. I know they differ slightly as I am using 5day data from Pepperstone but the build of the bars is similar. Hope you can follow - just let me know if I am confusing things too much. To see how I approach my trades , I have tried to explain a little of my setups & what I look for. Since eliminating CT trades from my mindset, I can confidently state my success rates have multiplied.
Anyway - here goes:
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Look forward to any feedback - happy pips to you.
  • #26,124
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:30am Aug 22, 2013 4:30am
Hi Guys - my last bit of "homework" for the day.
I am re-reading Phillip's teachings on Rythym and wanted to share this with you. It is a zoomed version of my H4 chart & a more specific chart showing my personal take on the Rythym of the EU and the reaction of price to our ma's.

Anyone look at things the same as I do ??

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  • #26,125
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:34pm Aug 22, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi there Edge, I have tried to answer your queries by using snaps of my charts. I know they differ slightly as I am using 5day data from Pepperstone but the build of the bars is similar. Hope you can follow - just let me know if I am confusing things too much. To see how I approach my trades , I have tried to explain a little of my setups & what I look for. Since eliminating CT trades from my mindset, I can confidently state my success rates have multiplied. Anyway - here goes: {image} {image} Look forward to any feedback - happy pips to...
Thanks for the great explanation. It makes market rhythm a tad easy to understand now. Basically, if PA shows lots of wick, MACD is messy instead of a smooth curve, rhythm is somewhat out of whack.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
  • #26,126
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:14pm Aug 22, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting edge-t
{quote} Thanks for the great explanation. It makes market rhythm a tad easy to understand now. Basically, if PA shows lots of wick, MACD is messy instead of a smooth curve, rhythm is somewhat out of whack.
Cheers Edge,
Your question did lead me to thinking carefully about how I would answer so that I am not confusing the issue for everyone. Your assessment is spot on IMO.
I have just developed this following phrase which I will read before every trading day starts so thanks for making me look deeper into my trading mind

IF THERE AIN'T NO OBVIOUS TREND IN PLAY THERE CANNOT BE A PULLBACK OR BREATHER . and IF THERE AIN'T NO PULLBACK - THERE CAN NEVER BE A TREND CONTINUATION........

In Phillip's magic book of goodies somewhere , I recall him saying something about if we are trying to trade in areas where there is no obvious & clear trend, then we are probably in a playground stuck between MA's or simply in a consolidation Zone . If we want to trade these areas, then we have to learn to play away from the edges. Certainly makes sense- but that is a completely different story . I am not ready for that yet but I have read pretty much all of this thread and Phillip shows us how to do this as well.
  • #26,127
  • Aug 22, 2013 6:05pm Aug 22, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting Fuiyong
{quote} Hi Binnie, Thank you for your reply, certainly appreciate that. I have a few points to make. I am not arguing with you as I do know you are kind to be helping me. I am writing what I understand and I still welcome feedback and correction as I might have misunderstood what I though I have already understand. It is through correction that I will learn. Agree? Ok let's go to the points. With regards to post 26115, yes that was what the chart and entry point I was referring (at the close of the 0000hr candle) Now to post 26116, referring to...
Good Morning FY,
To answer you last question about not being able to load charts - have you been using this panel -
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If you are doing this correctly, I have no idea why you are experiencing problems. I am not a Techie so cannot help. If you want to contact support at FF, just go to the bottom of this current page and you will see a list of options - click on CONTACT FF and this will take you to a message section.

As for your trade on the 00.00 close - buddy you did nothing wrong and everything you have described is fine. Price above 89 therefore Bullish Mood. Price touched 21 and moved away ( does not necessarily have to be the 21 - it can also be the 8 so long as Price Action supports your decision ). Your Stop was set just under the 21 . You say your Macd is pointing up & closed Blue and that was your trigger to enter . and yes mine is too BUT if you have a look at my chart in post #26123, you will see why I would not consider an entry . Even if Price was moving upwards, the Macd has been moving lower telling me there is or has been a bit of weakness. If the Macd had made a progression of higher highs as price was rising, I too would welcome a red macd or two showing a retracment / pullback and this would give me a hint that a continuation is forming. There is no right or wrong here - it is how we interpret Phillips rules and if we get solid results, then great.
Losses come often - the only thing I will try to do to help minimize my losses is to be confident in my set up and ensure my Stop is not too close . On a H4 trade, I will be looking for at least 30 - 40 .

I hope this might help you FY - I think your understanding of the Rythym is pretty good. One of our common faults and I struggle with this a lot, is that we are so excited to get a trade underway, that sometimes we have not read the whole picture. Price Action determines if we play or sit on the side - the Macd is the TRIGGER sure , but it too can tell a story or warn us that something is brewing.

Cheers my friend - hope you can sort out the posting issues - the more charts we get to see and discuss, the better we will all become.
Friday here in NZ and heading off to Lake Taupo for a 50Th birthday celebration and a few nice wines and lots of laughs
  • #26,128
  • Aug 25, 2013 7:33pm Aug 25, 2013 7:33pm
Hi all.

I have days reading this post.

Please if any can help me with download the system, and basic trading ill be nice.
  • #26,129
  • Aug 25, 2013 10:22pm Aug 25, 2013 10:22pm
Hello everybody, thanks for build this thread and share how we implement MACD for profitable trading. Actually I already use MACD for my trade, but my entry not based on this trade alone. Also I'm not always using H4.

Especially thanks for mr. Phillip Nel for him ebook. I will be back soon after get revelation more about this kind technique.
  • #26,130
  • Aug 26, 2013 4:58pm Aug 26, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting Fxv
Hi all. I have days reading this post. Please if any can help me with download the system, and basic trading ill be nice.
Greetings Fxv - welcome to our thread. There is so much to read and everything you need to catch up on is contained in the very 1st page. Try & cover all of Phillip's posts , then while you are doing this, you can post some charts & questions. We will be happy to answer where we can but please please , you must try to work things out for yourself.
Looking forward to seeing some charts from you soon .
  • #26,131
  • Aug 26, 2013 5:11pm Aug 26, 2013 5:11pm
Quoting mangkubumi
Hello everybody, thanks for build this thread and share how we implement MACD for profitable trading. Actually I already use MACD for my trade, but my entry not based on this trade alone. Also I'm not always using H4. Especially thanks for mr. Phillip Nel for him ebook. I will be back soon after get revelation more about this kind technique.
Welcome aboard Mangkubumi - Phillip has given us several ways to trade his methods including the H4 and H1 timeframes. The best advice I can give you is to concentrate on 1 method only until you have it totally in your personality. It is suggested that us beginners to his system learn about the Rythym of the market in relation to the various MA's he has provided. Once you have a solid grasp of the concept, the Macd can be used as a trigger to enter a trade . On its own , it is not to be used as the signal itself. Phillip also advises we should concentrate on the H4 Timeframe looking for trend continuation signals. Obviously it is best to resist taking any Counter Trend trades. Hope this gives you an insight into what we do here. Looking forward to your posts & questions.
  • #26,132
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:19pm Aug 26, 2013 7:19pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Good Morning FY, To answer you last question about not being able to load charts - have you been using this panel - {image} If you are doing this correctly, I have no idea why you are experiencing problems. I am not a Techie so cannot help. If you want to contact support at FF, just go to the bottom of this current page and you will see a list of options - click on CONTACT FF and this will take you to a message section. As for your trade on the 00.00 close - buddy you did nothing wrong and everything you have described is fine. Price above...
Thank Binnie for taking my questions. And yes, I think FF has fixed the problem. Taken any trade since Friday?
  • #26,133
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:30pm Aug 26, 2013 8:30pm
Quoting Fuiyong
{quote} Thank Binnie for taking my questions. And yes, I think FF has fixed the problem. Taken any trade since Friday?
Hi there Buddy,
Hope you had a great weekend, It is good to hear that FF have sorted your issue with posting charts.
Yes - I did take part in a small Long position on the GU yesterday . It was with trend ad was a RB away from the base of a consolidation channel. There was only 20 pips available to the Resistance level at the BRN 1.5600 but my Stop was only 20 odd so I was happy to enter. Got my 20 .

What about you ? Anything exciting on your screens?
  • #26,134
  • Aug 27, 2013 1:43am Aug 27, 2013 1:43am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi there Buddy, Hope you had a great weekend, It is good to hear that FF have sorted your issue with posting charts. Yes - I did take part in a small Long position on the GU yesterday . It was with trend ad was a RB away from the base of a consolidation channel. There was only 20 pips available to the Resistance level at the BRN 1.5600 but my Stop was only 20 odd so I was happy to enter. Got my 20 . What about you ? Anything exciting on your screens?

Hi,

I trade only EURUSD at least for now. But EURUSD seems hardly trade-able for last ..... 2 weeks or more? So I took at peep at the other pairs today not that I am trying to be out of focus but I got a bit bored and feel I am not able to learn much. So I was studying USDJPY and thought I would raise to same question if this market pattern occurs in EURUSD. I have this question if USDJPY was for a short term trade from my analysis:
The candle is moving away from 21ema or 8ema.
Price has broken through the 365ma (green dotted line) which also happens to be the 36.2 Fibonacci
MACD has broke through the zero line


Value your insight to this. Thank you.

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  • #26,135
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:00am Aug 27, 2013 2:00am
Hi,

I have another chart here - AUDUSD. Trade analysis:
1. Price stalled for a while and broke the level where it was ranging and also the 23.6% Fibonacci level.
2. Price is moving away from the 21ema
3. Price is below the 89sma, market is down trend
4. Target profit at fibonacci level
5. Risk:Reward = 1:1
6. MACD broker zero level

Value you feedback and insight on this. Thank you

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  • #26,136
  • Aug 27, 2013 4:39am Aug 27, 2013 4:39am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Welcome aboard Mangkubumi - Phillip has given us several ways to trade his methods including the H4 and H1 timeframes. The best advice I can give you is to concentrate on 1 method only until you have it totally in your personality. It is suggested that us beginners to his system learn about the Rythym of the market in relation to the various MA's he has provided. Once you have a solid grasp of the concept, the Macd can be used as a trigger to enter a trade . On its own , it is not to be used as the signal itself. Phillip also advises we...
yeah that's killing me...I usually trying pick "best-moment" for reversal without any confirmation.

Thanks binnie, I will share my idea and questions in the future
  • #26,137
  • Aug 27, 2013 5:17am Aug 27, 2013 5:17am
Quoting Fuiyong
{quote} Hi, I trade only EURUSD at least for now. But EURUSD seems hardly trade-able for last ..... 2 weeks or more? So I took at peep at the other pairs today not that I am trying to be out of focus but I got a bit bored and feel I am not able to learn much. So I was studying USDJPY and thought I would raise to same question if this market pattern occurs in EURUSD. I have this question if USDJPY was for a short term trade from my analysis: The candle is moving away from 21ema or 8ema. Price has broken through the 365ma (green dotted line) which...
IMHO - the Euro is still playing around in a Consolidation Zone and with market bias being for longs if we use the 89 for a visual guide, it is still not showing a strong intention to move either way. Best to wait for a serious breakout and watch for the RYTHYM to start again. Patience is key here I think.
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Just my thoughts also on your Yen & Aussie charts -

YEN: Zooming out a bit on a Daily chart shows a Bullish sentiment but things get a bit confused on the H4 chart with the recent action telling us there is a downtrend. PA hovers above the 89 but this MA has flattened out so in summary we are getting mixed messages. If you are happy to accept the downtrend analysis and you are familiar with using the Macd cross-overs as triggers, then you have found yourself a pretty good set up.

AUSSIE: Again by using the Daily Chart I am leaning towards Bearish Trend and my H4 89 position confirms this for me. Assuming you are again happy with the Macd crossover as a trigger, you would have another successful Short position. Price moving away from the 21ma, Stop in pretty safe position and Profit target set at last significant low. If you wanted to play a bit more dangerously, there was a possible entry at close of the previous candle when the Macd did actually cross the Zero but with the VBRN .9000 holding as Support a couple of bars earlier, there was a chance price could again stall there so by waiting till that next bar close under the VBRN level, you have taken a bit of safety.

I am not confident with crossovers just yet but will get to them in due time I guess. If you have taken either or both of these for practice purposes , you have spotted well. It goes to show that your pattern spotting applies to most currencies.
Thanks for posting - it helps us view things from another Traders perspective
  • #26,138
  • Aug 27, 2013 5:58am Aug 27, 2013 5:58am
Quoting binnie
{quote} IMHO - the Euro is still playing around in a Consolidation Zone and with market bias being for longs if we use the 89 for a visual guide, it is still not showing a strong intention to move either way. Best to wait for a serious breakout and watch for the RYTHYM to start again. Patience is key here I think. .....
Hi Binnie, For the EUR/USD I'm agree with you.... also the 8 and 21 are close to eachother. Also an indication we are consolidating right now
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,139
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:27am Aug 29, 2013 9:27am
Hi. Some of you have send me some private messages but for some reason I dont know why the reply has been taken away so I cannot respond to you. I have contacted FF by mail but they have not responded in more then a week now. If you have send me a private message please contact my at [email protected]
Regards
  • #26,140
  • Sep 1, 2013 11:25pm Sep 1, 2013 11:25pm
Hi Binnie,

Thanks for your reply. Do you trade range? Have I understood correctly in Philip's video that were could also take trade if they are in range but provided of course it meets the 4MSCD rules. Have you taken any?

Ok here is t chart I have taken on 2nd September.
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Ok, I understand about the consolidation like you have explained in the previous post. On 28th August the price broke out of the 61.8% Fibonacci level and went down for the next two day making about 170pips. Was / were there any trade opportunity between 28th and 30th August? Have I missed any trade opportunity in between this period?

Look forward to hear from you soon. Thanks
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