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AUD/USD

  • #62,741
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:23am Aug 22, 2013 1:23am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think you got that backwards Feds easing off orderly way is actually strengthening the dollar. Time for printing 85b a month is coming to end.Everyone knows its unsustainable.
I have to agree with you on that one

We have to cancel out the market noise freaking out about the tapering. Over the long term, cutting this QE shite down will only be beneficial for the dollar IMO
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,742
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:30am Aug 22, 2013 1:30am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I have to agree with you on that one We have to cancel out the market noise freaking out about the tapering. Over the long term, cutting this QE shite down will only be beneficial for the dollar IMO

Thanks brother
Heads up on Euro /NZD very nice short opportunity.At least 300pips south.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #62,743
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:31am Aug 22, 2013 1:31am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think you got that backwards Feds easing off orderly way is actually strengthening the dollar. Time for printing 85b a month is coming to end.Everyone knows its unsustainable. As far as Aussie rebounding, lot has to do with China's growth and Japan's devaluation of Yen.China is clearly slowed down and Japan will continue cheapening the Yen.In order to stay competitive Aussie is aiming lower currency and it won't surprise me near future another interest rate cut.
Agree on lower currency, but rate cut i do not. Sep-Oct-Dec.. these 3months (imho n, i mostly wrong) AUD struggling between 9.2 and 8.5 .. I forget the source, that Aussie Govt want it at 0.8 at 2014? anybody knows?
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #62,744
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:32am Aug 22, 2013 1:32am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think you got that backwards Feds easing off orderly way is actually strengthening the dollar. Time for printing 85b a month is coming to end.Everyone knows its unsustainable. As far as Aussie rebounding, lot has to do with China's growth and Japan's devaluation of Yen.China is clearly slowed down and Japan will continue cheapening the Yen.In order to stay competitive Aussie is aiming lower currency and it won't surprise me near future another interest rate cut.
Printing dollar cannot be ended, it's just short time stop printing. If the fed stop printing, all economies will be stopped. so that's impossible to stop printing
  • #62,745
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:33am Aug 22, 2013 1:33am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Agree on lower currency, but rate cut i do not. Sep-Oct-Dec.. these 3months (imho n, i mostly wrong) AUD struggling between 9.2 and 8.5 .. I forget the source, that Aussie Govt want it at 0.8 at 2014? anybody knows?

One way to force lower is to cut rates.Would you not agree?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #62,746
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:37am Aug 22, 2013 1:37am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks brother Heads up on Euro /NZD very nice short opportunity.At least 300pips south. {image}
No problem! Hmmm, I will have to check that out!
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,747
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:40am Aug 22, 2013 1:40am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think you got that backwards Feds easing off orderly way is actually strengthening the dollar. Time for printing 85b a month is coming to end.Everyone knows its unsustainable. As far as Aussie rebounding, lot has to do with China's growth and Japan's devaluation of Yen.China is clearly slowed down and Japan will continue cheapening the Yen.In order to stay competitive Aussie is aiming lower currency and it won't surprise me near future another interest rate cut.


This seems to be the course we are headed on. Of course there are still a few variables up in the air (as you pointed out with China and Yen), but it is looking more and more likely each month. I also believe Aussie is very bearish from a technical perspective. We shall see.
  • #62,748
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:45am Aug 22, 2013 1:45am
Quoting yaphets
{quote} Printing dollar cannot be ended, it's just short time stop printing. If the fed stop printing, all economies will be stopped. so that's impossible to stop printing

85B a month is beyond reasonable.No economy can sustain that.We are talking about trillions of dollars.This is a huge subject.
Worth reading

If the Feds don't stop printing unsustainable levels we can see another 2008 melt down.
This economy is NOT recovering because "free" money is not going to main stream to create jobs.Instead its staying in Wall street.You notice every time tempering talk is coming up Stocks just plummet? No wonder they are worried free money river could end the party.
Sad indeed Sad.I am Libertarian and I am sort of upset mess we created.
Anyway if tempering starts soon like Sept 2013 we can see gradual strengthening of dollar.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #62,749
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:51am Aug 22, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Davit
{quote} 85B a month is beyond reasonable.No economy can sustain that.We are talking about trillions of dollars.


I see this a lot. My only question is..is that if every market participant believed this were true, then how did Draghi get away with his "do whatever it takes.." statement so well then?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,750
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:51am Aug 22, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Davit
{quote} 85B a month is beyond reasonable.No economy can sustain that.We are talking about trillions of dollars.This is a huge subject. Worth reading If the Feds don't stop printing unsustainable levels we can see another 2008 melt down. This economy is NOT recovering because "free" money is not going to main stream to create jobs.Instead its staying in Wall street.You notice every time tempering talk is coming up Stocks...
The pace is unsustainable. I don't believe it has much to do with Wall Street stuffing their pockets. Their pockets are already full and a strengthening of dollar would actually be favorable to them also. I believe printing has to slow down to avoid inflation becoming a huge problem.
  • #62,751
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:54am Aug 22, 2013 1:54am
I tend not to agree with those who make unqualified statements that Central Banks filling the credit gap is unsustainable. Sure...we all know the constraints. But Ray Dalio himself is pretty fucking sure in his "How the Economic Machine Works" paper that the Fed will print, print, print to get the job done. He makes no hint at "this is unsustainable.." in the paper.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,752
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:55am Aug 22, 2013 1:55am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I see this a lot. My only question is..is that if every market participant believed this were true, then how did Draghi get away with his "do whatever it takes.." statement so well then?
Two main reasons:

1) ECB is not the Fed
2) No one believed Draghi
  • #62,753
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:56am Aug 22, 2013 1:56am
If no one believed him then how the in the hell did credit spreads ie (obvious one) Greece go from 25% to where it is today?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,754
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:01am Aug 22, 2013 2:01am
Quoting Neqrotik
I tend not to agree with those who make unqualified statements that Central Banks filling the credit gap is unsustainable. Sure...we all know the constraints. But Ray Dalio himself is pretty fucking sure in his "How the Economic Machine Works" paper that the Fed will print, print, print to get the job done. He makes no hint at "this is unsustainable.." in the paper.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the Fed will continue to print money. That doesn't mean there will be fluctuations in how much they print. Right now they are printing at a sprinting pace. They can't keep that up if they want to continue running.
  • #62,755
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:04am Aug 22, 2013 2:04am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I don't think anyone would disagree that the Fed will continue to print money. That doesn't mean there will be fluctuations in how much they print. Right now they are printing at a sprinting pace. They can't keep that up if they want to continue running.
O.k so, if we say that the feds current pace is unsustainable and the economy still doesn't recover, how does one see this as a seguey to speculating dollar strength?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,756
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:09am Aug 22, 2013 2:09am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} O.k so, if we say that the feds current pace is unsustainable and the economy still doesn't recover, how does one see this as a seguey to speculating dollar strength?

Are you paying attention? Feds already announced they will cut QE. It will start very soon.They already know they must
The real reason why they are not announcing exact date because they don't want wall street severe volatility.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #62,757
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:15am Aug 22, 2013 2:15am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Are you paying attention? Feds already announced they will cut QE. It will start very soon.They already know they must The real reason why they are not announcing exact date because they don't want wall street severe volatility.

Oh...Im paying attention. Fed can announce they will cut QE. Doing it is an entirely different matter.


Quoting Davit
They already know they must The real reason why they are not announcing exact date because they don't want wall street severe volatility.
lets just remember here that WALLSTREET volatility is NOT a Fed mandate. Volatility may come as a consequence of conflicting guidance and fed policy. However Employment and Inflation is what is being targeted here. To the extent that ANY volatility will serve as a tangible input to fed policy is to the extent that the volatility itself inhibits the effectiveness of fed policy. To that end I dont see any specifics on that volatility from anyone to provide any insight as to how much volatility (specifically) matters.


So again. Its not really clear here how the earlier statements provides a sufficient and clear seguey into speculating dollar strength.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,758
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:16am Aug 22, 2013 2:16am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} O.k so, if we say that the feds current pace is unsustainable and the economy still doesn't recover, how does one see this as a seguey to speculating dollar strength?
I'm not going to pretend to know the future. Apparently, you know it better than I do .

All that we can do is speculate. As a result of my speculation, I believe it is more favorable to print less for the time being (notice I didn't say completely stop). Now should the Feds print less and the economy does worse, then I would have to reconsider my estimations that arose from [again] MY speculation. I wouldn't be the only one to have to reconsider either. The Feds themselves would too. Now obviously you don't agree with my (and the Feds) estimate. That's fine, but please don't assume that our opinion is less valuable because Dalio's paper from 2008 doesn't hint at Feds tapering.
  • #62,759
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:19am Aug 22, 2013 2:19am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I'm not going to pretend to know the future. Apparently, you know it better than I do . All that we can do is speculate. As a result of my speculation, I believe it is more favorable to print less for the time being (notice I didn't say completely stop). Now should the Feds print less and the economy does worse, then I would have to reconsider my estimations that arose from [again] MY speculation. I wouldn't be the only one to have to reconsider either. The Feds themselves would too. Now obviously you don't agree with my (and the Feds)...
Dalio's paper was updated recently. March 2012 if you didn't notice. Too lost in speculation i guess.

Besides, being precise is NOT what this conversation is about. All I'm saying is that in trying not to break from conventional wisdom about things, how is it that your speculation leads to a credible opinion about foreseeing USD strength. I, as well as everyone else on this website, have a right to ask for clarification.If thats uncomfortable to you...then I apologize to stir the tradition of things.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,760
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:26am Aug 22, 2013 2:26am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Dalio's paper was updated recently. March 2012 if you didn't notice. Too lost in speculation i guess. Besides, being precise is NOT what this conversation is about. All I'm saying is that in trying not to break from conventional wisdom about things, how is it that your speculation leads to a credible opinion about foreseeing USD strength. I, as well as everyone else on this website, have a right to ask for clarification.
Let me guess, Dalio still doesn't mention tapering even though the Feds announced it shortly thereafter. Maybe he should do another update now
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