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  • #801
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:51am Aug 20, 2013 5:51am
Here's some high level views of 4H and 1H.

Not sure if it's appropriate to tie in Elliot Wave counts (of which I am NOT an expert at all) but it's curious about the count from the last swing bottom.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.PNG Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.PNG Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H Elliot.PNG Size: 63 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #802
  • Aug 20, 2013 7:38am Aug 20, 2013 7:38am
So im thinking we are all due a ZZB on the TFs...it the sudden 50pip spike I dun get
I want more brain power!
  • #803
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:16am Aug 20, 2013 8:16am
Quoting cfdtaleong
So im thinking we are all due a ZZB on the TFs...it the sudden 50pip spike I dun get
The 50-100 pip spike was expected when price went low at 3327.
3327 + 100 pip ATR = 3427
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #804
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:38am Aug 20, 2013 8:38am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} The 50-100 pip spike was expected when price went low at 3327. 3327 + 100 pip ATR = 3427
hmm I still have much to learn
I want more brain power!
  • #805
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:59am Aug 20, 2013 9:59am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} The 50-100 pip spike was expected when price went low at 3327. 3327 + 100 pip ATR = 3427
Update:
High 3451
Swing Low 3327 = 124 pips... that is a typical ADR on EU.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #806
  • Aug 20, 2013 10:45am Aug 20, 2013 10:45am
Still short.

That High of 3451 is forming some black hole type formation though.
May use the 5M to exit out of some shorts and put on some Longs for a TP target of 3474ish.
I'll keep my lower shorts as the 1H is begging for a ZZB that should capture my shorts.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #807
  • Aug 21, 2013 12:54am Aug 21, 2013 12:54am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hi FFPips This morning's London open fully justifies why I always look at higher timeframes .
Hello VLady,
Thank you for the detailed analysis, I appreciate your time and awesomeness.
I was in at training class the whole day and my PST time zone kept me away from the trade. I got a notification on my cell phone about your detailed response and I was getting impatient to read the post but couldn't. Do know that your opinion matters as someone who has proved to be successful at similarity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #808
  • Aug 21, 2013 1:08am Aug 21, 2013 1:08am
Quoting ffpips
{quote} Hello VLady, Thank you for the detailed analysis, I appreciate your time and awesomeness. I was in at training class the whole day and my PST time zone kept me away from the trade. I got a notification on my cell phone about your detailed response and I was getting impatient to read the post but couldn't. Do know that your opinion matters as someone who has proved to be successful at similarity. {image}
Hi FF,

The 4H and 1H are now looking bullish. The push to 345X made me look at the 4H again and your arrow is right. A ZZB is due or a *2* swing at BBMid could occur. The 1H is now above the 300 EMA and price tends to stay at the top half of the BB. Which means turns occur more frequently at BBMid.

I'm now building longs with a target of 3470-80 ish and loosed my shorts as too much effort to hedge. If I had more screen time in the next 2 days I would have held them but FOMC is coming tomorrow. So I've closed the long term shorts and focused on short term longs if that makes sense. Yet I remain bearish.

ive longed on your 5M ZZB

EDIT:
5 and 15M point higher which means 1H could repaint. If not, Bollinger Band pulled tighten and price close outside of BB to the right which would still be a ZZB but not as low as you would have thought... Meaning higher. Same for 4H. The shape of BB can help you project direction of price.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #809
  • Aug 21, 2013 1:57am Aug 21, 2013 1:57am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hi FF, The 4H and 1H are now looking bullish. The push to 345X made me look at the 4H again and your arrow is right. A ZZB is due or a *2* swing at BBMid could occur. The 1H is now above the 300 EMA and price tends to stay at the top half of the BB. Which means turns occur more frequently at BBMid. I'm now building longs with a target of 3470-80 ish and loosed my shorts as too much effort to hedge. If I had more screen time in the next 2 days I would have held them but FOMC is coming tomorrow. So I've closed the long term shorts and focused...
Its going to be an interesting day but again I can only snatch a quick look at the markets. Fundamentals are going to drive this around, Abe is talking about more QE for jpy, Greece needs another bailout and then on top of that the Fed. Good luck guys and gals! Vlady, some great posts, I'm amazed that some of the predictions I've made looking at the zones on my chart have actually happened (although I haven't been able to trade as I don't use stops and usually trade for real in small lots) so looking forward to getting back here when I have the time.
  • #810
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:00am Aug 21, 2013 2:00am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hi FF, The 4H and 1H are now looking bullish.
If i can put in a different way, It is bullish because though 4H stocBB is at 100 it did not COBB but price did, so for stoc to COBB, price should head up or make one SEM 2 bottom and then SEM 2 top????
1 H formed a SEM 2 at mid BB. I think it will repaint till a SEM2 forms on 4H and then a SEM 2 Top for 4H Cobb to go short.

did i make sense?
  • #811
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:19am Aug 21, 2013 3:19am
Vlady, What is the definition of black hole? I looked at earlier messages about the system, but unable to figure it out?
  • #812
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:31am Aug 21, 2013 3:31am
Quoting ffpips
{quote} If i can put in a different way, It is bullish because though 4H stocBB is at 100 it did not COBB but price did, so for stoc to COBB, price should head up or make one SEM 2 bottom and then SEM 2 top???? 1 H formed a SEM 2 at mid BB. I think it will repaint till a SEM2 forms on 4H and then a SEM 2 Top for 4H Cobb to go short. did i make sense?
Gosh I love/hate mornings for trading.

It coincides with my work commute and I have to revise previous night forecast and then re-look at the price action after Asia. And I closed all shorts that were taken right where the bottom is now. Bah! And I closed a big short from the top! bah bah bah. Took my longs from 20 and 05 but now got another at 92 but kids that was NOT THE WAY TO TRADE this morning's PA.... i know better.

Nothing to do with Similarity but the Frankie open is, in my opinion, a long setup that continued to London. Basically big previous day's shoot up.... consolidate sideways via Asia (they place longs with big stop loss under the price that started the move (3326) for example.... everyone else wants a better "buy" price that lowers the price to 3395ish where the second push yesterday began (hence my previous post to you about the 4H). So how it looks is a horizontal consolidation with a spike DOWN before a continuation of the 2 big pushes upwards.

This move clearly shows up on the 1H where as I mentioned above, the Bollinger does a squeeze..... and when it posts a ZZ swing, technically it will be a bottom and then we are away. BAH!

LOL.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #813
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:34am Aug 21, 2013 3:34am
Quoting ffpips
{quote} If i can put in a different way, It is bullish because though 4H stocBB is at 100 it did not COBB but price did, so for stoc to COBB, price should head up or make one SEM 2 bottom and then SEM 2 top???? 1 H formed a SEM 2 at mid BB. I think it will repaint till a SEM2 forms on 4H and then a SEM 2 Top for 4H Cobb to go short. did i make sense?
Yes. Personally I always look for the SEM3 for the turns... but they also turn into SEM2 so you're right to not ignore them.
Yes, 1H formed a SEM2 at BBMid so that's a queue.... but I want that 1H to print a SEM3 ZZB and then the Minutes and 1H will tie. Since 4H is out of sync, but 1H has bottomed out... it can only mean a SEM2 higher than SEM3 which technically will print a new SEM3 or a Higher High on the 4H..... see what I'm looking for?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #814
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:38am Aug 21, 2013 3:38am
Quoting grin
Vlady, What is the definition of black hole? I looked at earlier messages about the system, but unable to figure it out?
A "Black hole" is a price formation that creates a Top or Bottom inside the Price Bollinger Band.

Since the technique calls for Price to Close Outside Of Bollinger Band (C.O.B.B.) before it turns and coincides with the ZZ & Semafor indicator, then a price close that is inside the BB is unresolved.

That is, big players made the move too suddenly the market reacted away from that dissimilarity but once the market cottons on to the arbitrage opportunity, it will close it - ie. the market joins in and price returns to the point of dissimilarity and resolves that price.

I've had about 3 experiences of this in the last 2 months of studying it. 1 of them with real money early on and I did not pay heed. That's why I remember it very well
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #815
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:53am Aug 21, 2013 3:53am
I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't work today
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #816
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:07am Aug 21, 2013 4:07am
This is the interesting problem posed by the 1H today.
I think there's more upside hence my longs but I am bearish = conflicting views! Aarrgh!

It could bounce early and take the high for a nice short setup.
Or it could go lower then bounce and create a lower high which is a more secure setup.

Or... FOMC could blow me out the water.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.PNG Size: 88 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #817
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:25am Aug 21, 2013 4:25am
vlady1974

Hi mate, you really need to be careful holding so many lots open!! MM is key to being successful....

How many lots do u have open?

Once the holiday period is over we should start seeing trends again....

Anyway just a warning mate good luck

P.s I believe we will see more upside, PA will tell us GL
  • #818
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:40am Aug 21, 2013 4:40am
Quoting josh11
vlady1974 Hi mate, you really need to be careful holding so many lots open!! MM is key to being successful.... How many lots do u have open? Once the holiday period is over we should start seeing trends again.... Anyway just a warning mate good luck P.s I believe we will see more upside, PA will tell us GL
Mate, thanks for keeping me honest!
You're absolutely right. Gonna tone it down. LOL... too embarrassed to tell you how many lots they are!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #819
  • Aug 22, 2013 12:33am Aug 22, 2013 12:33am
Quoting Dewey McG
Thanks for starting this thread. Here is something I was working on before getting locked out. I have been working on 2 strategies that came from different ideas that were presented which I think show some promise: Strategy 1 Stoch goes outside band EMA goes outside same band ZZ Top or Bottom forms Enter trade SL = 10 pips TP is middle band Strategy 2 Stoch goes outside band EMA goes outside same band ZZ Top or Bottom forms Price crosses mid band enter trade SL is opposite band (top band if a short, lower band if a long) TP is next ZZ top or bottom...

Hi Dewey, how is this strategy going for you
  • #820
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:13am Aug 22, 2013 2:13am
Two more days of training ()

Anyways... looks like all my projections got washed out yesterday.

Today, 4 H looking for a bottom.
1 H bottom will repaint.
15 m and 5m bottom will repaint as well.

So, 1 H is near 300 EMA and very close to form a bottom, I will wait to take a short term long and as soon as 4H forms the purple top (there isnt much room though) then take a long term short.
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