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AUD/USD

  • #62,561
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:18pm Aug 20, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Yes other asset classes are pricing in QE but not FX
I wholeheartedly agree friend. I believe the USD in FX is a bit of a laggard for sure in terms of the Taper effect (for a lack of better term).
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,562
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:19pm Aug 20, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} SO the market is saying "if the fed wont be buying them...then we wont be buying them either.." and Yields climb higher.
Regarding this, just take a look at 2015/2016 eurodollar futures, its not speculation on bonds this time, its a reaction to expected interest rate rises. N.B. the shift in termstructure charts
  • #62,563
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:21pm Aug 20, 2013 5:21pm
If one believes that the UST's price in Tapering then the USD fair value (inc. tapering) is at 84.5 (80.95 now)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #62,564
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:23pm Aug 20, 2013 5:23pm
If this is the case. Then even worse and I would be bullish GOLD and OIL then. I can only ascertain that such an "expected" rise in rates is attributed to market perception of a failure of current accommodation to have its intended effect.

*Not to mention that my underpinning assumption is that we are still in a deleveraging economy.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,565
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:27pm Aug 20, 2013 5:27pm
Quoting Neqrotik
If this is the case. Then even worse and I would be bullish GOLD and OIL then. I can only ascertain that such an "expected" rise in rates is attributed to market perception of a failure of current accommodation to have its intended effect. *Not to mention that my underpinning assumption is that we are still in a deleveraging economy.
why would you be long oil and gold if tapering does occur?, also 5Y5Y breakevens are main driving force for Oil at this point
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #62,566
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:48pm Aug 20, 2013 5:48pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} why would you be long oil and gold if tapering does occur?, also 5Y5Y breakevens are main driving force for Oil at this point {image}

As for the first chart where you map USTSY10 and USD I can only sumise 1 of 2 things. I wish we could see those two prices with GLD tracked as well to give some clarity on whether we are infact seeing a divergence in accommodation expectations or we are in fact seeing a developing "inflationary" trend. I am more inclined to believe the former. Despite my suspicion that GOLD would correlate more in the USTSY10 within the last couple of months than with the dollar it seems.

My statement just previous was a response to your earlier statement as for response sake. So you can scratch that. I personally believe inflation hedging assets are in for a correction.

As for the 5 Year Price action Vs. Yield and your attribution to Oil. Mind walking me through how you are linking the 2? So how does oil rise as a result of heavy buying of 5 year paper.

Am I way off here?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,567
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:48pm Aug 20, 2013 5:48pm
Quoting samirs
{quote} whats the target
30 - 40 pips is all I was looking at , this was achieved...........

  1. achieved past participle, past tense ofa·chieve (Verb)


    Verb

    1. Reach or attain (a desired objective, level, or result) by effort, skill, or courage: "he achieved his ambition to become a journalist".
    2. Accomplish or bring about.

The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62,568
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:53pm Aug 20, 2013 5:53pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} As for the first chart where you map USTSY10 and USD I can only sumise 1 of 2 things. I wish we could see those two prices with GLD tracked as well to give some clarity on whether we are infact seeing a divergence in accommodation expectations or we are in fact seeing a developing "inflationary" trend. I am more inclined to believe the former. Despite my suspicion that GOLD would correlate more in the USTSY10 within the last couple of months than with the dollar it seems. My statement just previous was a response to your earlier statement...

As per request Gold is overlayed (and inverted) and can be seen just as a USD pair as it tracks very closely (i.e. expects no taper)

Also, regarding oil chart, it is not 5Y yield, it is the 5y breakeven yield - that should answer your question.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #62,569
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:56pm Aug 20, 2013 5:56pm
AU H4
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  • #62,570
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:00pm Aug 20, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting chazzle
AU H4 {image}
Last high and Low is where we live.............9025 - 9225...........200 pips
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62,571
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:26pm Aug 20, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} As per request Gold is overlayed (and inverted) and can be seen just as a USD pair as it tracks very closely (i.e. expects no taper) Also, regarding oil chart, it is not 5Y yield, it is the 5y breakeven yield - that should answer your question. {image}

Overwhelming evidence on inflation expectations. Is that how you would sumise it Jer?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,572
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:28pm Aug 20, 2013 6:28pm
Long this pair. Playing it short and possibly long term.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,573
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:30pm Aug 20, 2013 6:30pm
I have heard theories that inflation, as it is currently calculated is wrong and that the real US liabilities, including off balance sheet obligations is near $70 trill.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,574
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:31pm Aug 20, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting Pip Anon
I have heard theories that inflation, as it is currently calculated is wrong and that the real US liabilities, including off balance sheet obligations is near $70 trill.

lol just like GDP i guess...
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,575
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:38pm Aug 20, 2013 6:38pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} lol just like GDP i guess...

Lol, well you see when you run your campaign on rebuilding the economy and it stagnates like your Japan we get to add little "one-time" this and that to give it a little boost when needed.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,576
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:39pm Aug 20, 2013 6:39pm
" Martha's polishing the brass on the Titanic. It's all going down, man."
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,577
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:50pm Aug 20, 2013 6:50pm
This is me......

Inserted Video
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,578
  • Aug 20, 2013 7:47pm Aug 20, 2013 7:47pm
Quoting Pip Anon
This is me...... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoJthzxpn7A
Funny that the video is 2 years old, but still could hold true...

Have not traded this pair since last long, looking again for a spot to go long pre-FOMC.

I think Asia should turn this around in the next 12 hours.
  • #62,579
  • Aug 20, 2013 7:50pm Aug 20, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Funny that the video is 2 years old, but still could hold true... Have not traded this pair since last long, looking again for a spot to go long pre-FOMC. I think Asia should turn this around in the next 12 hours.
It is. Most honest opinion I have ever heard on tv. Not necessarily the content, but some of it came true, but the way he trades. In the end, nobody cares as long as it yields them an opportunity to profit.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,580
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:00pm Aug 20, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} It is. Most honest opinion I have ever heard on tv. Not necessarily the content, but some of it came true, but the way he trades. In the end, nobody cares as long as it yields them an opportunity to profit.
Right, just make money. No emotion.

USD index is sitting at the bottom if its long-term trendline. Is tomorrow the catalyst to break the trendline or resume the trend??

Personally I think it will hold the TL, but in the next 3 months we could see the dollar in a world of hurt when a taper gets pushed back indefinitely. 10yr cant handle a taper...
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