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AUD/USD

  • #62,541
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:12am Aug 20, 2013 9:12am
Quoting mahedee
I just went short, lets see what is going to happened tomorrow.
Bad idea. It should go up... Really. To fast for short.
  • #62,542
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:29am Aug 20, 2013 9:29am
1) Immediate resistance at round number .91
2) Also old line .9130
3) Top of channel

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps401ba38d.jpg
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #62,543
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:59am Aug 20, 2013 9:59am
AU looks like it is at a point to come down for a while

maybe 30 to 40 pips to start with.............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8_20_13 aud 10am.JPG Size: 486 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62,544
  • Aug 20, 2013 10:46am Aug 20, 2013 10:46am
Quoting forexalien
AU looks like it is at a point to come down for a while maybe 30 to 40 pips to start with............. {image}
They are trying to collect lost souls right now.....................
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62,545
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:10am Aug 20, 2013 11:10am
GUYS, dO YOU KNOW THAT AUD/USD PEAKED AT 4AM???????? aLL OF THE UP MOVE CAME FROM ASIA. WTF??? i ONLY GOT LUCKY AND got in because of the news, but what is the point if asia reacts one way and NY the other to the same news!!!! So what was the point of the day? It seems to me we must all invent a new system. Its called, shall i fade or follow the asian market, as its incredible but the low asian volume often holds off the volume of the london and NY boys. Thats insane. How could the asians have been the ones to make todays highs. Now in the eur/usd it is total opposite...you must ignore everything you saw in the asian session....everything! Ignore "most of what you saw in the london and at 8am when the NY boys come in, thats when the euro starts trading...and i can tell you why. Its sinply because the us stock futures are starting to trade heavily and imho, forex players are trying to use the american market to take their positions. also the gold and silver markets dont heat up til 9am which affects the AUD whicvh affects this which affects that whcih affect, on and on and on.

Do you guys realize all the news on aud was in the asian session. it was driven to new highs for the day on news!!!. and then the london and ny boys take it right back down without any big volume on NO news. What a sick market this is becoming.

What I see is London is telling asia, we dont care what you do, and ny is telling london and asia we dont care what you do either. This is probably why if i dont swing trade and use daily bars to make my decisions I lose. Look at any asian session and with 3 or 4 green bars in a row look how the daily volume bar has barely moved even if there 60 min vol bars go to the top. Can someone say fumble the ball on purpose because the game is rigged? Or...NY just found a way to make more money by fading somebody!!!!
  • #62,546
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:39am Aug 20, 2013 11:39am
Quoting Silat50
GUYS, dO YOU KNOW THAT AUD/USD PEAKED AT 4AM???????? aLL OF THE UP MOVE CAME FROM ASIA. WTF??? i ONLY GOT LUCKY AND got in because of the news, but what is the point if asia reacts one way and NY the other to the same news!!!! So what was the point of the day? It seems to me we must all invent a new system. Its called, shall i fade or follow the asian market, as its incredible but the low asian volume often holds off the volume of the london and NY boys. Thats insane. How could the asians have been the ones to make todays highs. Now in the eur/usd...
True points, but why the crazy font? I am sure all of us can read.

Asian session know for this. Great for trading, not necessarily buy and hold. London usually sets the tone for the day in broader terms. .92 is still holding, and apparently .91 is setting in. think it will retrace to .9075, potentially lower. I believe, when looking at the charts and fundamentals, sub-.89 in on the way year end. Potentially by Sep/Oct.

Selling the rallies have worked well in this pair.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,547
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:42am Aug 20, 2013 11:42am
wave 3 on the M15 to be going down..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62,548
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:48am Aug 20, 2013 11:48am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} True points, but why the crazy font? I am sure all of us can read. Asian session know for this. Great for trading, not necessarily buy and hold. London usually sets the tone for the day in broader terms. .92 is still holding, and apparently .91 is setting in. think it will retrace to .9075, potentially lower. I believe, when looking at the charts and fundamentals, sub-.89 in on the way year end. Potentially by Sep/Oct. Selling the rallies have worked well in this pair.

CAPS BRO.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,549
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:52am Aug 20, 2013 11:52am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} CAPS BRO.
Lol no kidding. Have you ever ran into a Mercy Seat posting? Seven posts long with only 100 characters lol. Took like 7 mouse scrolls to pass it.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,550
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:23pm Aug 20, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting forexalien
AU looks like it is at a point to come down for a while maybe 30 to 40 pips to start with............. {image}
DUDE, I like your charts. But I want to make you a bet. Keep the charts, and throw out that 5 moin time frame which is for scalpers and guys who get shredded by the spread. Put 60min, 1 day 1 week charts up. Use only those 3. Your whole trading life will change, I promise you. Why? Even on 60min charts you can have brisk movement for 3 bars all in one direction yet on the daily bar it shows its just noise!!! So 5 min to these banks is pocket change they dont even notice. You have to get stopped out unless you are using 100 pip stops. -)

Which if you guys notice, if you are a good trader you need at least 100 pip stops so those daily bar wicks and tails dont make "you" the next victim. If you can afford $10 on a micro account for a 100 pip stop, you shouldnt be playing. But...some of us are greedy and play 5 contracts with a 20 pip stop and are back in a cubicle 2 months later. Dont let that be you!
  • #62,551
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:40pm Aug 20, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} DUDE, I like your charts. But I want to make you a bet. Keep the charts, and throw out that 5 moin time frame which is for scalpers and guys who get shredded by the spread. Put 60min, 1 day 1 week charts up. Use only those 3. Your whole trading life will change, I promise you. Why? Even on 60min charts you can have brisk movement for 3 bars all in one direction yet on the daily bar it shows its just noise!!! So 5 min to these banks is pocket change they dont even notice. You have to get stopped out unless you are using 100 pip stops. -)...
Thanks for the Advice.......

Alien does take into effect the month and weekly directions.............checks the Daily and then looks for TF's to line up...............

Currently the M15 is long and topping, H1 is trying to go long, but the M15 will pull it down some.

The problem with the AUD right now is Daily is long , H4 is short, H1 is long < they are all fighting each other and this ='s Ranging............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62,552
  • Aug 20, 2013 2:27pm Aug 20, 2013 2:27pm
AUD/USD is now on it's course for a bullish cypher pattern, once that pattern completes, it will become a good opportunity to go long for a potentially large bearish butterfly pattern, which should find resistance at 0.94450. At which point it would a good price to short again for another couple of hundred pips or so.

Edit: Small error in the chart, point B of the butterfly should be confluent with point C of the cypher, leaving it at a fib level of 78.6
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: download (1).png Size: 100 KB
  • #62,553
  • Aug 20, 2013 3:19pm Aug 20, 2013 3:19pm
.91 the resistance
  • #62,554
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:00pm Aug 20, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting forexalien
wave 3 on the M15 to be going down..............
It took 4 hours, but it is moving down.....................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62,555
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:11pm Aug 20, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} It took 4 hours, but it is moving down.....................
whats the target
  • #62,556
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:48pm Aug 20, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting Silat50
GUYS, dO YOU KNOW THAT AUD/USD PEAKED AT 4AM???????? aLL OF THE UP MOVE CAME FROM ASIA. WTF???
from my experience, despite london being the largest forex city, the volumes traded in each individual countries currency is traded more from it's own location (e.g more AUD is traded during asian hours, more CAD in US hours).

this was apparent at Citi and RBS.

ps. hello all first post on here.
Do what's right for you
  • #62,557
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:56pm Aug 20, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} It took 4 hours, but it is moving down.....................
Bargain...
I don't think fed is going To taper and if they do it is mostly priced in.
D1 chart aud usd. nzd usd I see all kind of spikes down.
  • #62,558
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:58pm Aug 20, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting Fx-gtg
{quote} Bargain... I don't think fed is going To taper and if they do it is mostly priced in. D1 chart aud usd. nzd usd I see all kind of spikes down.
priced in?!?!?!?

unless you've made a typo that is one of the most incorrect statements I've heard all year.
  • #62,559
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:13pm Aug 20, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} priced in?!?!?!? unless you've made a typo that is one of the most incorrect statements I've heard all year.

Why don't you think so Jeremy? Don't you think it is priced in at least to SOME extent?

Reason why I ask is cause

Yields: Up
Stocks: Down
USD: Up (combination of reflecting yield lead, oil climb, and equity unwinds)
Oil: Up

My personal view is we are seeing the same bond action we saw last year. Trying to front run the fed. Whereas back then Bonds took it in the teeth when they tried to front run another Operation Twist and instead we got MBS purchases. This time we got bonds selling off cause they dont believe Fed will be buying as much. SO the market is saying "if the fed wont be buying them...then we wont be buying them either.." and Yields climb higher.

While the front-run action doesn't necessarily price in 100% cause we are seeing Gold prices run up pretty aggressively as well. If it were "PRICED IN" I would not expect to see Gold prices rise along with other inflation hedging assets.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #62,560
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:17pm Aug 20, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Why don't you think so Jeremy? Don't you think it is priced in at least to SOME extent? Reason why I ask is cause Yields: Up Stocks: Down USD: Up (combination of reflecting yield lead, oil climb, and equity unwinds) Oil: Up My personal view is we are seeing the same bond action we saw last year. Trying to front run the fed. Whereas back then Bonds took it in the teeth when they tried to front run another Operation Twist and instead we got MBS purchases. This time we got bonds selling off cause they dont believe Fed will be buying as much....
he was referring to fx markets, and as such there are no signs whatsoever from the FX complex that tapering will even be mentioned this year. It's very strange.

Yes other asset classes are pricing in QE but not FX
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