ETMA_The Evolution

So.... again 70 pips lower, as foreseen. 1,3310 is support + round number + end of day + end of week.

That's it. Monday is a new game.


BR

Hear say, Euro Rallies as Bundesbank Claims ECB Did Not Rule Out a Rate Increase.
THE TAKEAWAY: Bundesbank says guidance doesn’t rule out a rate increase -> Draghi seemed to say otherwise in August press conference.

Very respectable 30 Years Forex Banks trader, a guest speaker in a Forex course that I'm taking.

45 Ways to Avoid Losing Money Trading FOREX, by Jimmy Young.

1) Knowledge Deficiency – Most new FOREX traders don’t take the time to learn what drives currency rates (primarily fundamentals). When news or a statement is due out they must close out their positions and sit out the best trading opportunities. They are taught to only trade after the market calms down. So essentially they miss the whole move and then trade the random noise that follows a fundamental price move. Just think for a moment about technically trading the aftermath of a price move; there is no potential.

2) Overtrading - Trading often with tight stops and tiny profit targets will only make the broker rich. The desire to “just” make a few hundred dollars a day by locking in tiny profits whenever possible is a losing strategy.

3) Over leveraged - Leverage is a two way street. The brokers want you to use high leverage because that means more spread income because your position size determines the amount of spread income; the bigger the position the more spread income the broker earns.

4) Relying on Others – Real traders play a lone hand; they make their own decisions and don’t rely on others to make their trading decisions for them; there is no halfway; either trade for yourself or have someone else trade for you.

5) Stop Losses – Putting tight stop losses with retail brokers is a recipe for disaster. When you put on a trade commit to a reasonable stop loss limit that allows your trade a fair chance to develop.

6) Demo Accounts – Broker demo accounts are a shill game of sorts; they’re not as time sensitive as real accounts and therefore give the impression that time sensitive trading systems, such as short-term moving average crossovers can be consistently profitably traded; once you start dealing with real money reality is quick to set in.

7) Trading During Off Hours – Bank FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds have a huge advantage during off hours; they can push the currencies around when no volume is going through and the end game is new traders get fleeced trying to trade signals. There is only one signal during off hours – stay out.

8) Trading a Currency, Not a Pair – Being right about a currency is half a trade; success or failure depends upon being right about the second currency that makes up the pair.

9) No Trading Plan - Make money is not a trading plan. A trading plan is a blueprint for trading success; it spells out what you see your edge as being; if you don’t have an edge, you don’t have a plan, and likely you’ll wind up a statistic (part of the 95% of new traders that lose and quit).

10) Trading Against Prevailing Trend – There is a huge difference between buying cheaply on the way down and buying cheaply. What was a low price quickly becomes a high price when you’re trading against the trend.

11) Exiting Trades Poorly – If you put on a trade and it’s not working make sure you exit properly; don’t compound the damage. If you’re in a winning trade don’t talk yourself out of the position because you’re bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get use to it.

12) Trading Too Short-term – If you’re profit target is less than 20 points don’t do the trade; the spread you pay to enter the trade makes the odds way against you when you go for these tiny profits.

13) Picking Tops and Bottoms - Looking for bargains works well at the supermarket but not trading foreign exchange; try to trade in the direction the price is going and you’re results will improve.

14) Being Too Smart – The most successful traders I know are high school graduates. They keep it simple and don’t look beyond the obvious; their results are excellent.

15) Not Trading Around News Time – Most of the big moves occur around news time. The volume is high and the moves are real; there is no better time to trade fundamentally or technically than when news is released; this is when the real money adjusts their positions and as a result the prices changes reflect serious currency flow (compared to quiet times when Bank traders rule the market with their customer order flow.

16) Ignore Technical Condition – Determining whether the market is over-extended long or over-extended short is a key determinant of near time price action. Spike moves often occur when the market is all one way.

17) Emotional Trading – When you don’t pre-plan you’re trades essentially it’s a thought and not an idea; thoughts are emotions and a very poor basis for doing trades. Do people generally say intelligent things when they are upset and emotional; I don’t think so.

18) Lack of Confidence – Confidence only comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it’s very difficult to gain true confidence; the trick is don’t go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade.

19) Lack of Courage to Take a Loss – There is nothing macho or gutsy about riding a loss, just stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Getting married to a bad position ruins lots of traders. The thing to remember is the market does crazy things often so don’t get married to any one trade; it’s just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; rather it’s monthly and annual performance that defines a good trader.

20) Not Focusing on the Trade at Hand – There is no room for fantasizing in successful trading. Counting up and mentally spending profits you haven’t made yet is mental masturbation and does you no good. Same with worrying about a loss that hasn’t happened yet. Focus on your position and have a reasonable stop loss in place at the time you do the trade. Then be like an astronaut – sit back and enjoy the ride; no sense worrying because you have no real control; the market will do what it wants to do.

21) Interpreting FOREX News Incorrectly – Fact is the press only has a very superficial understanding of the news they are reporting and tend to focus on one element and miss the point. Learn to read the source documents and understand it for real.

22) Lucky or Good – Your account balance changes don’t tell you the whole story about your trading; fact is if your taking a lot of risk and making money you will eventually crash and burn. Look at the individual trade details; focus on your big loses and losing streaks. Ask yourself this; if I had a couple of consecutive losing streaks or a couple of consecutive big loses, how would my account balance look. Generally, traders making money without big daily loses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance. The others are accidents waiting to happen.

23) Too Many Charity Trades – When you make money on a well thought out trade don’t give back half on a whim; invest your profits from good trades on the next good trade.

24) Courage Under Fire – When a policeman breaks down the door to a drug dealers apartment he is scared but he does it anyway. When a fireman climbs onto the roof of a burning building he is scared but does it anyway; and gets the job done. Same with trading; it’s ok to be scared but you have to pull the trigger; no trigger – no trades – no profits – no trader.

25) Quality Trading Time – I suggest 3 hours a day of quality, focused trading time; that’s about all your brain allows. When your trading being 100% focused; half way is bullshit’ it doesn’t work. Don’t even think that time spent in front of the computer watching the rates has any correlation to profitability; it doesn’t. Spend less time but when your trading be 100% focused on trading.

26) Rationalizing – Killer. Absolute Killer. Put your trade on and let it run. If it hits your reasonable pre-determined stop your out. Think of yourself as a prizefighter; you just got knocked out. Moving your stop is like getting up after being crushed with a knockout blow; it’s pointless; things will only get worse. Don’t ignore the obvious; your wrong – get out. Come back the next day and try again. A small loss will not hurt you; a catastrophic loss will.

27) Mixing Apples and Oranges – Have you ever done this; you see the EURUSD trading higher so you buy GBPUSD because it “hasn’t moved yet”. That’s a mistake. Most of the time the reason the GBPUSD hasn’t moved yet is because its already overbought or some 4:30am UK news was bearish. Don’t mix apples and oranges; if EURUSD looks bid buy EURUSD.

28) Avoiding the Hard Trades – Bank FX traders have an axiom; the harder the trade is to do the better the trade. This I learned from experience; when I needed to buy EURUSD and it was hard to get them that’s when it’s necessary to pay up and get the business done. When it’s easy to get them then sit back and wait for better levels. So if your trying to get into a trade or more importantly get out of a trade don’t putz around for a few points; get your business done.

29) Too Much Detail – If your trading more than 2 indicators then you need to clean house. Having many indicators stifles trading and finds reasons not to trade. A setup and a trigger is all you need.

30) Giving Up Too Easy – Your first trade of the day may not be your best but certainly it’s no reason to quit. I have a preset daily trading limit and I use it; you can’t make money by making excuses; getting trades wrong is natural and should be expected.

31) Jumping the Gun – Don’t be penny wise and dollar foolish; wait for your trade signal to be clear; put on your trade and give it a decent size stop loss so that you don’t get knocked out by random noise. Do trades don’t’ buy lottery tickets (extremely tight stops).

32) Afraid to Take a Loss - trading is not personal; it’s business. Don’t think that a poor trade is a reflection on you. It could be your just ahead of your time or a commercial order hits the market and temporarily creates a small unexpected move. Again, place your stop beforehand and NEVER increase your pre-determined risk; if it’s going bad it will probably get worse; I think that’s Einstein “in motion stays in motion…”

33) Over-Relying on Risk Reward – There is zero advantage in risk reward; if you put a 20 point stop and a 60 point profit your chances are probably 3-1 that you will lose; actually with the spread its more like 4 to 1 (from entry point if it goes down 17 points you lose or up 63 you win; 17/63 is close to 4-1).

34) Trading for Wrong Reasons – Because the EURUSD is going up is not in itself a reason to buy. Buying EURUSD because its not moving so little risk is even worse; you’re paying the toll (spread) without even a hint that you will get a directional move. If your bored don’t trade; the reason your bored is there is no trade to do in the first place.

35) Rumors – Rumors are rumors almost 100% of the time; think about where in the motion you heard the rumor; if EURUSD is up 50 points in last 15 minutes and the rumor is dollar negative, well then you missed it. Whenever you trades determine where in the motion you are entering.

36) Trading Short-term Moving Average Crossovers – This is the money sucker of the century. When the shorter term moving average cross the longer term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. For the life of me I cannot understand why this is bullish or bearish. Easy to set up on software, complete with lights, bells and whistles, and good for the seller getting thousands for the software but in terms of creating profit it’s a zero.

37) Stochastic – Another money sucker. Personally I think this indicator is used backwards; when it first signals an overdone condition that’s when I think the big spike in the “overdone” currency pair occurs. To be overbought means strong and oversold means weak. Try buying on the first sign of overbought and selling on the first sign of oversold; you’ll be with the trend and likely have identified a move with plenty of juice left. So if %k and %d are both crossing 80; buy! (Same on sell side; sell at 20)

38) Wrong Broker – A lot of FOREX brokers are horrible; get a good one. Read forums and chats in several different places to get an unbiased opinion.

39) Simulated Results – Watch out for “black box” systems; these are trading systems that don’t divulge how the trade signals are generated. Great majority of them are absolute garbage. They show you a track record of extraordinary results but think about it; if you could build a trading system with half a dozen filters using the benefit of hindsight, couldn’t you too come up with a great system. Of course going forward is an entirely different story. High-speed number crunching capabilities allows for building great hindsight trading systems; BEWARE.

40) Inconsistency – Every business (FOREX trading included) requires a business plan (trading plan). Unless you have taken the time to write down a set of rules that you can and will follow, it’s likely your trading will remain unfocused and directionless. Make a plan, have rules, follow them set goals that are realistic and you will achieve them.

41) Master of None – Focus on one currency for technical trading; each currency has a unique way of trading and unless you get intimate with it you will never truly understand its underlying idiosyncrasies. Don’t spread yourself too thin – focus – master one currency at a time.

42) Thinking Long Term – Don’t do it. Stay in the moment. Especially if you’re a day trader. It doesn’t matter what happens next week or next month, if your trading with 30 to 50 point stops restrict your thought process to what’s happening right now. That is not to stay the long-term trend is not important; it is to say the long-term trend will not always help you when your trading a significantly shorter time frame.

43) Overconfidence – Trading is not easy; statistics show 95% failure rate. If your doing well don’t take your success for granted; always be on the lookout for ways to improve what you’re doing.

44) Getting Pumped Up – The trick is to maintain an even keel; when you are in a trade you want to think exactly as you would if you didn’t have a trade on. To do this requires a relaxed disposition; this is not a football game; don’t get psyched up; relax and try to enjoy it.

45) Staying in the Game – I don’t recommend demo trading because traders learn bad habits when trading with play money. I also don’t think “letting it all hang out” right away is wise either. Start off doing trades and taking risk that is relatively small but still makes a difference to you if you win or lose; about a quarter to a third of what you expect to reach as your trading matures is reasonable.

He posts for free every week on Facebook his News trading calendar for everybody to see , i try it several times and its not easy, believe me.

Retired proven professional Bank FOREX trader with over 30 years of hands-on FOREX trading experience.

Email: [email protected]
Web: http://www.eurusdtrader.com

Just to let u know that the NU Has formed a Bearish pinbar Exactly on Resistance, PA should head south from here, an excellent R:R of 1:3-3.5 Setup has formed if it follow through right down to support.

To read

How The 1% Really Makes Money
MARKETS ARE TUMBLING AROUND THE WORLD — INDONESIA CRASHES AGAIN
Here's What The Heck Is Happening In Indonesia
CHART OF THE DAY: Here's What's Crushing Indonesia
I Just Found Out When I'm Supposed To Die
Nassim Taleb's 5 Ways To Have A Great Day
35 Brilliant Insights From Nassim Taleb

Enjoy.

Best,
B.R.

Like i said before this Candle is a sign of a bullish trend continuation, already breaking very Important resistance top, the 34160, let's see if it close above @ the NY Close.
The reason for this Dollar weakness is the Fed taper speculation and the Emerging Markets crash.

Best,
B.R.

Dollar Treading Water Before FOMC Minutes as S&P 500 Corrects

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is trading sideways as traders await the outcome of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release while the S&P 500 has attempted a cautious recovery.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water above support at 10650, the August 8 low. Near-term resistance is at 10708,the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% level at 10744. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the bottom of a falling channel set from early July, now at 10598. Broadly speaking, the standstill likely reflects traders’ unwillingness to commit to a directional bias ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes publication.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick. The index is now retesting support-turned-resistance at 1652.10, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break back above this barrier exposing the 23.6% retracement at 1674.10. Alternative, renewed downward momentum sees the next downside objective is at 1634.30, the 50% level.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_6.png

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1376.28, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a reversal lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 1356.22, the 50% Fib, with a break beneath that targeting the 38.2% level at 1336.76. Alternatively, a reversal above 1376.28 aims for the 76.4% expansion at 1400.72.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_7.png

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices pulled back after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the top of a Triangle chart pattern, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 108.40. Sellers are now testing Triangle support at 104.71, with a break beneath that initially exposing the 38.2% Fib retracement at 102.70. Alternatively, a reversal above 108.40 aims for the 50% expansion at 110.32. On balance, a Triangle is typically indicative of trend continuation, which in this case carries bullish implications, though confirmation is absent for now.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_8.png

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Get ready for another round of volatility and whipsaws, one more time the FOMC Meeting Minutes is here and still Tapering is on this eternal agenda of chaos that never ends, come on get it over with and end this Bloody QE.

What I'm reading today.

GOLDMAN: Here's The Jackson Hole Paper We Can't Wait To Read On Friday
Your Ultimate Preview To Wednesday's Unusually Important Fed Minutes
The State Of Greed, Euphoria And Vigor In The Stock Market
REPORT: Goldman Sachs Lost Up To $100 Million On Bad Trades Today
Nikkei Gains Instantly Evaporate After Japan Raises Severity Level Of Latest Fukushima Radiation Leak
Bleeding Stopped, As Markets Go Nowhere
There Are Lots Of Metrics Showing The Market Is Getting Severely Overvalued
Goldman Sachs' Massive Trading Error Bears A Scary Resemblance To The One That Brought Down Knight Capital
Hacker Reveals How Devastating A Cyberattack On The Stock Market Could Be

Enjoy, best,
B.R.

Traders, Send Us Photos Of Your Trading Desks. The dream that is coming closer and closer to be fulfilled.

http://static4.businessinsider.com/i...ading-desk.jpg

Some updates from the Markets Today.

CHART OF THE DAY: Septembers Are The Worst
FOMC MINUTES: TAPERING TIMELINE ON TRACK
CHINESE MANUFACTURING SURGES
ECONOMIST: The Street Will Raise Its China Q3 GDP Forecasts After Today's PMI Report
GERMANY SURGES: Flash PMI Index Soars To A 7-Month High
EUROZONE RECOVERY GATHERS SPEED: Flash PMI Report Is Best In Over Two Years
Markets Are Flying Higher

Best,
B.R.

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m and Unemployment Claims @ 12:30 GMT FOR ALL U CAD traders out there, by the way UCAD broke a very important top yesterday the 4455 that been rejected 4 times before but it will be encountered with a serious headwinds @ the 6080 Level which been rejected 4 -5 times also its fair to say that today's news events will lead to a push higher to that level {(News is expected to be in line) = UCAD Bullish} but who knows.

Getting to that level will position this pair in a confluence of Bearish circumstances, top of the D1 + W1 Bands ( Full Average true range been run) + Very Important resistance top so its fair to expect this pair to correct lower if not to the Lower D1 Band then it maybe begin his march towards the Lower W1 Band which stands today @ 0.9864 and is a candidate to Expand.

Fair to say also that this Resistance level been tested a lot and maybe its time to pop leaving the UCAD Flying to another bullish Trend that couldn't materialize earlier.
So Bullish or bearish we will be following the action and taking necessary Measures to profit from this.

Just saying.

Best,
B.R.

GU hitting his mid term Ascending trendline and trying to break it lower.

What i'm reading today :

NASDAQ HALTS TRADING FOR THREE HOURS
Here's What We Know So Far About The Shutdown At The NASDAQ
There Was A Weird Apple Sell-Off Right Before The Nasdaq Halt
The NASDAQ's Statement On Today's 3-Hour Trading Halt Is Incredibly Vague
4 Ways Advisors Can Calm Clients Who Are Panicking About Rising Interest Rates
QE3 Is The Area 51 Of Monetary Policy
This Chart Of Surging Interest Rates Is Everything
This Week, US Investors Pulled The Most Money Out Of The Stock Market In Five Years
Stunning Chart Shows How The NASDAQ Has Completely Flatlined
REPORT: Goldman Sachs Lost Up To $100 Million On Bad Trades Today
Why You Should Skip A Financial Advisor And Learn To Manage Your Money Yourself
CHART OF THE DAY: A Reliable Jobs Indicator Is Signaling A Big Unemployment Rate Spike

Enjoy,

Best,
B.R.

Perfect call. I'd be looking for entry a bit sooner, but this worked great. Looking at chart today it makes me want to trade that pair. :-)
I look at PA a bit different it seems. I did assemble something which should be simmilar to your old templates I think in order to make it understandable to ETMA users.
Bottom line, I'd be looking for short entry about 100-150 pips higher.

http://charts.mql5.com/2/342/nzdusd-...rkets-as-4.png


EURUSD reaching critical level. Setup is bullish, yes, but... 1,3370 seems to be MOB line (make or break).

http://charts.mql5.com/2/342/teurusd...markets-as.png

Keep them coming! :-)


BR

These are the sure fire PA signals that we R looking for @ the Bands to take a confident trades, i entered @ the Break of the Pinbar down and have the 770'sh level as potential target but u know me I'm a fan of the DC trailing stop so i will be trailing the PA until it fulfill my rules for a long or until it shows me an obvious PA reversal Signal like the Pinbar that we had on a critical level of support.

U can see that the UCAD acted also as i predicted now coming closer to Resistance and there is a good chance that this pair will continue his uptrend for this resistance level being tested too many times and holds so maybe its time to pop, important to note that all the CAD pairs are popping there respective resistance levels which being holding for so many times also ( EUR, GBP, etc... ), i guess we will have to wait and see.

UJ is popping his long term trendline resistance also and breaking a long term symmetrical triangle, is this break for real we will see.

Best,
B.R.

I've got 1 more rule to fulfill before pulling the trigger on a EU Short and its the Long term Ascending trendline Break lower and retest, waiting patiently for this rule to lineup but because of the end of the week i won't be pulling the trigger yet, Monday is another story.

Best,
B.R.

Important to know:
http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=HyC...q2R806RhbAKx2g
http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=HyC...loXx7CAuiaVDjg
http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=HyC...bgz1btWXLJiSfQ

End of the week trades, but wait until monday it will be still waiting for us.
have a nice weekend.

best,
B.R.

If EU turns arround, NU has no place to go but further down. But for now as I stated, EU was today long.
A bit hard to compare "notes" as your trading TF is waaaaaaaaaaaay higher than mine. But as you see, my method works to.

CAD - I just checked now. Good call also, but I don't follow it as well. I'm mainly on DAX and EU, intraday. But for band trading I could squeeze in also other pairs. Similar as NU, I'd be in long position way sooner, but I have to admit, I'd likely have to make more entries than you in order to hit a really good winner. Different methods.


Well, good trading in next week. I'll be signing off more or less for a few days. One last vacation before school year starts again. Not for me, for my kids. I kinda grew out of school a few years back. I think I'll have internet, but I doubt I'll do any trading.

But I'll give a few thoughts to bands again and as stated, I might be tempted to do some small scale trading on other pairs and longer TFs also. Intraday is a fast reward, but requires 100% attention.


BR

my english is bad. I just wanted to share a short GU
http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/1493/hh62.png