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  • #8,461
  • Aug 19, 2013 12:27pm Aug 19, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} I don't know how the backtests were done to show these results but I have done it live and the account grows. Here is an example, let's take the German Flash trade coming this week: -11 pips is my max loss Even if spread widens to 15 pips during the peek of news my loss will not exceed 11 pips because a 15 pips spread results in 7.5 pips disadvantage if you entered the trade BEFORE the news. e.g: if the price didn't move from minute :29 to minute :30 but only the spread did to -15, you're net loss will be -7.5
Yes, correct. European Stuff in the morning of european session works better. ZEW and German Ifo are fine cause the spread is also lower but move can be as high as on NFP/Draghi.
I took -15 Pips on SL 5 at 8:30/9:30 because of NFP sometimes spread is 20 pips in first seconds on EUR/USD :/ - than calculation is correct.

For you, Tony, sometimes obvious things are hidden villages to other people. I give you an example: You invest BEFORE the news (and if you would also use 2nd account for shorting you could cover both sides) and this is a true edge, cause as you said you can halve the spread ! This is the difference of thinking and why you earn money in this market - and as I said because of your high value trading for you it's ok to have W/L Ratio of 1.5 or even less or with other words: Two big wins per year of 100000 $ and 200 lost of 800 $ fits your style. Unplayable for me.

Thanks for your insights ! I will make a "hand" backtest, may be today on news for long and short, adding spread widening accordingly (e.g.: max. 10 Pips spread on German ifo (means on SL 5: Lost of -10 pips) and so on). SL 5(+spread/2), TP 20, 40, 60 and 2 hours after trade was opened.

The best news are: German ZEW, German Ifo, Draghi (thursday), NFP, ISM-Manu and some other red marked at forexfactory. I will concentrate on the best ones. I will show results here.
Tony, thanks for the hint investing before. nice one.
  • #8,462
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:21pm Aug 19, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} As humans with extreme intelligence capacity, we complicate everything. Have you even seen the pure joy in a child's eyes? They are happy because everything is simple.

Yes you are right Tony. But people know that simple things works best (it is written here in this thread and every other popular topic on FF), and still try to add some indicators and voodoo dolls. I just don't know why...
  • #8,463
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:28pm Aug 19, 2013 3:28pm
Ok, test is done.

Here are the results for news trading: Test by hand. (NFP,Ifo,Zew, Draghi, ISM...)

Setup: 2012/09/27 - 2013/02/19
trades: 54 (long and short, 2 accounts before news)
SL: 5 pips (means -10 pips if SL hit)

Results:
SL:5 / TP:20
-350 pips (35 times stoped out) / 260 pips earn (13 times TP hit before SL)

SL:5 TP:40
-350 pips / 242 pips

SL:5 TP:60 (never got hit, same as close after 2 hours)
-350 pips / 245 pips

the W/L Ratio is sadly and constant approx 250/350=0,72

If market was not movin' after big news (<5 pips both directions) I assmumed two 0 pip trades (highly unlikely, you will lose at least spread costs).
So 0,72 is fairly rated.

Sorry but these are the facts. Best results were european trades (ifo, zew) as expected. Worst scenarios are more than one BIG news same time (e.g. unemployment claims and draghi speech at 9:30).

It makes all sense. If there are more than 1 event the expectancy rises to get stopped out - both directions, cause ALL events have to be in sense for huge move. Also that TP 60 never got hit before SL is sad. The problem as mentioned above is, that the estimates have to be really wrong AND it's nessessary that you don't get false move (happened one time: e.g. Long, short setted 8:29, News are heavy eur bullish, market rises 10 pips (correct) and falls 18 pips immediately (incorrect, hunting of SL), than rises 60 pips as expected). These two trades were handled as -10 pips and 0 pips =-10 pips (one position got stopped out on first move, the other got closed at B/E when market came back).

When I learned sth. in the years is that if a backtest is not W/L at least 1.3 you can forget making more tests on it.
Hope could help some guys. Thanks anyway for the suggestion, Tony !May be you can add some thoughts to it.
  • #8,464
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:42pm Aug 19, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting Lukaszmiami
{quote} Yes you are right Tony. But people know that simple things works best (it is written here in this thread and every other popular topic on FF), and still try to add some indicators and voodoo dolls. I just don't know why...
I would argue that using stop clusters as entry/exit is actually simpler and more elegant than using news releases. I'm interested in knowing why you guys think this isn't a viable strategy more than anything else, to be honest.

I'll try to post a chart of what I mean when I get home in a couple of hours.
  • #8,465
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:47pm Aug 19, 2013 3:47pm
You must be making some horrible mistakes. Maybe you don't get somethingm do you use BE? Last month i made only 14 trades, all based on news, same way as Tony trade. Buy 1 min before news, SL 7 TP 21 most of the time, and i made +120 pips, a lot of BS's and few winners.

Dude, stop complicating things...two accounts? Why? When do you decide to close one side of trade? Does it make any sence? What if trade hits both SLs? Do you use selected news? Or trade every RED news from FF?
  • #8,466
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:57pm Aug 19, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting Frostbyte
{quote} I would argue that using stop clusters as entry/exit is actually simpler and more elegant than using news releases. I'm interested in knowing why you guys think this isn't a viable strategy more than anything else, to be honest. I'll try to post a chart of what I mean when I get home in a couple of hours.



Can't wait to see your trades/screens. And how are you going to spot those STOPS areas? Round numbers? S/R lines? News are simple, you know when to play, and you can expect vol. increase, that's enough for me. Let the math do the rest.
  • #8,467
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:10pm Aug 19, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting Frostbyte
{quote} I would argue that using stop clusters as entry/exit is actually simpler and more elegant than using news releases. I'm interested in knowing why you guys think this isn't a viable strategy more than anything else, to be honest. I'll try to post a chart of what I mean when I get home in a couple of hours.
Last month alone I triple my account (Although its small compared to most) Just shows this method works
  • #8,468
  • Aug 19, 2013 6:04pm Aug 19, 2013 6:04pm


  1. @JackintheBox     - since you backtested this strategy I assume you have the historical news releases. Can you tell where I can download it? -- Thank you.

  • #8,469
  • Aug 19, 2013 10:58pm Aug 19, 2013 10:58pm
These stats make me dizzy. All I know is that on French Flash I'm risking 8 pips and German Flash 11 pips.
As soon as these trades will go in my favor I'll be at MINIMUM 20 PIPS on my screen. If they go wrong I don't care. I'm getting paid for sure no matter what mathematics you apply. It's a no-brainer.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,470
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:07pm Aug 19, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting Tony112
These stats make me dizzy. All I know is that on French Flash I'm risking 8 pips and German Flash 11 pips. As soon as these trades will go in my favor I'll be at MINIMUM 20 PIPS on my screen. If they go wrong I don't care. I'm getting paid for sure no matter what mathematics you apply. It's a no-brainer.

Which direction will you be trading in for the news?
  • #8,471
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:08pm Aug 19, 2013 11:08pm
Quoting dappa
{quote} Which direction will you be trading in for the news?
If you read back a bit he always BUYS

Quoting Tony112
These stats make me dizzy. All I know is that on French Flash I'm risking 8 pips and German Flash 11 pips. As soon as these trades will go in my favor I'll be at MINIMUM 20 PIPS on my screen. If they go wrong I don't care. I'm getting paid for sure no matter what mathematics you apply. It's a no-brainer.
This is why I like you so much Tony haha keeping it simple
  • #8,472
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:20pm Aug 19, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting dvanderlinde
{quote} If you read back a bit he always BUYS {quote} This is why I like you so much Tony haha keeping it simple

LOL post like that put a smile on my face. hahaha One thing even God can't contest: When you ALWAYS buy, you are disciplined. ahhahaha so for those who lack of discipline there's only one way to fix yourself, always BUY. Doesn't that sound like the holy-grail?
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,473
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:42am Aug 20, 2013 12:42am
Quoting Lukaszmiami
{quote} But people .... still try to add some indicators and voodoo dolls. ...

Epic.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,474
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:30am Aug 20, 2013 6:30am
Quoting Lukaszmiami
Dude, stop complicating things...two accounts? Why? When do you decide to close one side of trade? Does it make any sence? What if trade hits both SLs? Do you use selected news? Or trade every RED news from FF?
Hi Lukasz,

Tony uses only long. This means that you only cover one side and get false stats of the system. Example: If you trading only long you miss all huge downdrives after news release. It just takes longer to go only long to earn pips (if method would be profitable).
So if you take a long in one account and a short on another account you cover both sides and earn money faster. Although you get better results whether the system REALLY works.

Let'S take last month: What do you think why you could make money ? Cause the longs where overweighted good. Next month it will not work - I promise with a expectancy of 99%.

Of course, if you trade both sides simoultaneously you can lose both SL's so it's a minus of 2x10 pips. I used BE. If you BE to fast you get stopped out even more and the results of avg. 250 pips earn in this period would think(going down) accordingly.

I took not all red's. I show you why. If you take all red's the system would get worser - cause of spread costs. Lots of red news aren't that volatile worth a trade.

@Tony: What I don't understand are you estimates of Volatility after news... Flash is moving ok, but LOTS of good "red" events even dont have 20 pips on one side before get stopped out(or BE)... my stats show. They don't lie - I mean just test it and the wins don't cover losts (example: one 20 pip earn, 6 losts (trading both sides /// or: no win or 1 win (depends) 20 pips and 3 losts (taking only long or short).

Take "core retail sails", "Philly Fed Manufacturing Index", "Core CPI m/m"...and so on, not worth all trades.
It's easy: Just take all reds, and write down the max-min the next 2 hours.... than you see that only some events make sense to trade.

I mentioned news above which are ok, Lukasz, please re-read.

If you would trade all red's it makes more sense to trade it the opposite way - but you can't...cause NFP, Draghi get spreads of 10-20 pips... so you lose cause of high closing costs.

Anyway my backtest has a forward accuracy of nearly 85% ... let's see what happens this time

See ya
  • #8,475
  • Aug 21, 2013 11:41am Aug 21, 2013 11:41am
Keep it up people, this thread is inspiring!

I'm sure some people use this shit all day long to meditate on with a text-to-speech service.

I hope I'll get some extra cash soon to start trading this method on a separate account.
  • #8,476
  • Edited 4:41pm Aug 21, 2013 4:31pm | Edited 4:41pm
Yuppi!!!! 22+20 pips on FOMC Meeting Minutes
Not the best to trade, but it my first news deal, wanted to try how it feels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.png Size: 100 KB
  • #8,477
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:38pm Aug 21, 2013 4:38pm
Tony, thanks for thread!
I never trade news before. On these days i analyse all big news for this year (not only in first page) and made statistics for every news with screenshots! And i saw, that it can work! now trying to find good broker with fixed spread
  • #8,478
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:58am Aug 22, 2013 1:58am
Loser -8 pips onto next one
  • #8,479
  • Edited 4:03am Aug 22, 2013 2:55am | Edited 4:03am
Yes, first one was loser but what happened 2:58 and 3:28 ??? Does the news leaked through ?
I was busy, backtesting a system, how were spreads ? 3 points ?

Excited what Tony did today, see ya later
  • #8,480
  • Aug 22, 2013 3:09am Aug 22, 2013 3:09am
Quoting JackintheBox
Does the news leaked through ?

No, 2 min before official time it's standard in this case. Reuters subscribers pay cash to get news earlier

Rising triangle?

I saw falling circle.... Sometimes all those candle patterns are just funny

For me -7,+21. Let's call it a day!
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