Central Banks & Big Players

Still floating, TP is 50.

Tony are you using 100 lot size ? $1000 per pip or what ? as you said how this profits will effect the forex market ?

oh... there is trillions of dollar in the forex market but what if everyone open positive trade with 100 lot size in 100 + pips moving news time ?

Hey Tony, I have been following your thread since you started.. Nice to see you doing well.
You said in your new manual that this way in trading news is a coin toss, to which I dont agree most new releases include stop hunts and very low liquidity !!
I was wondering do you hit TP 50% of the time trading this way ??

Edit : btw, how many disco balls did you buy this year ??

i think Tony's trade hit in BE cause EU reversed

i have one doubt, still this 5 sec system works well? because there is lot of false breakout

A coin toss where 1 side of the coin, weighs more than the other Discoballs is all I have in my home. I have 20 discoballs per room.

did it again!

Tony, where was your entry on this??

blue arrow

i thought so.

but the price move up very fast, and than drop 20+ pips and hit my SL,

how come you enter on the pullback?

Congrats Tony I took 42 pips out of this nasty trade. Im happy as never before

I didn't. I entered at 4:27 only with a 18 pips SL, later modified SL to 0. Pure Elevation on this news is 50 pips approx.

It's good to hear Tony helps to your happiness.

This and last month gave me +70 pips in profit using Tonys method. Not much ,but with big enough account it is a lot of money. So yes...im happy mr Tony

Upcoming for next week:

French Flash Manufacturing: MARKET BUY ORDER 1 MINUTE BEFORE NEWS WITH 8 PIPS SL / ​TP 50 PIPS

German Flash Manufacturing: MARKET BUY ORDER 1 MINUTE BEFORE NEWS WITH 11 PIPS SL / ​TP 50 PIPS

These are our money-makers! Don't miss them.

Trade at your own risk, market could go in an opposite way.

Hi Tony, hi folks,

I'm big fan of this methods here which tony described. I'm semi pro. I backtested the strategy news trading from :
2012,09,27
till
2013,03,04 for all 8:30/9:30 trading opportunities (NFP, Draghi...,). If vola was too low (<10 pips first 2 minutes) trades were immediately closed.

My rules were this: 5 Pips SL after entry at 8:29 LONG
If SL hit: -15 pips
TP: 20 pips or
TP: 40 Pips or
TP: 60 Pips.
Don't get fooled. Although we have only 5 pips SL we loose 15 pips IF SL is hit within 1st minute cause of spread widening !

Results:
TP:20 SL:5 (-15 pips)
-------------------------
+80 Pips / -105 Pips

TP:40 SL:5 (-15Pips)
--------------------------
+61,4 Pips / -135 Pips

TP:60 SL:5 (-15 Pips)
---------------------------
+40 Pips / -135 Pips

Well...the results are really bad. If you can manage to squeeze the SL lost to 10 pips, it's still bad. The problem is the spread widening in first minute after news comes out (why ? cause if the market only goes 5 pips in wrong direction you lose 15 pips cause of spread widening). You also can trade it with two accounts (one long , one short before news to cover both sides) but it's not worth cause the long ones were so bad, that the shorts would have to be much better (and I checked the vola 2hours after 8:30 in this period: never above 70 pips or SL 15 pips were hit before). I did not tested shorts, it's late here

To sum it up: News trading this way will not work out in long term. It's simple reason: If news are not far away from the estimates (and that'S usually the case) the choppy moves after news comes out will kick your SL very often very fast. I'm excited about next news trades. May be Tony can handle it better than the backtest.

The last moves were absolutely outstanding (happens two-three times a year) and Tony got them (see posts above). The problem are the other (fake) moves were you lose all the gains you make at the 3 big winners :/
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One other result on Tony's old system (jumping in market after london open / ff open... SL 2-3 pips, let it run). I tested it also and the results are net positive.
I don't trade that system cause you have to invest ALL with full margin EVERY DAY to get good profit cause the RR ratio is only 1.2 BUT it's highly stable over lots of different entrys (e.g. 6 or 8 or 10 or... pips entry after F'F open) and varies only a bit (1.10-1.35 RR).
Or to say it in bucks: You earn 120000 Bucks and lose 100000 Bucks. This means to earn 20000 bucks per year you have to risk 100000(lost)/200(days)=500/3(SL)= 166 bucks per Pip!

Don't miss understand but Tony is a high value trader trading extremely high amounts. Always keep that in mind. For me its not suitable but I like his different thinking giving me new input for testing new strategies.

Keep it up Tony and folks: never forget, you need an edge to earn on markets...an edge means you are better than the market, better than automated entrys...keep that in mind. Tony can do this, this makes huge amount of difference at the end. There are some erratic stuff at the markets and in this short period of time you can earn money !

Happy Trading !

I don't know how the backtests were done to show these results but I have done it live and the account grows. Here is an example, let's take the German Flash trade coming this week:
-11 pips is my max loss

Even if spread widens to 15 pips during the peek of news my loss will not exceed 11 pips because a 15 pips spread results in 7.5 pips disadvantage if you entered the trade BEFORE the news. e.g: if the price didn't move from minute :29 to minute :30 but only the spread did to -15, you're net loss will be -7.5 because you're on one side of the trade only and you have entered it before hence losing -7.5 and not -15. If the trade was entered at peek of news, then you find yourself with an instant -15 pips.
-Pure elevation / drop of German flash is about 30 instant pips. There is no way you're gonna come up with negative results under these conditions. Backtesting often contains many invisible flaws and is often erroneous. Let the account digits speak for the effectiveness of a system. Live trading and constant evolution of the account, trade by trade shows you the real progression.

I think the concept behind this system is solid but the entry and exit rules are flawed. The only reason we are using news is because we know with reasonable accuracy the market will move at that point in time, but the problem is spreads. And exits are what...if price hits BE or +140 pips? Why?

I am looking at using this system in conjunction with stop hunts and option barrier plays, rather than news releases, for both entries and exits. Has anyone tried this yet?

Same scenario as usual... some guys try to complicate things. It never occurs profitable. And in my opinion, backtesting have nothing to do with real live.

Have a good day guys

As humans with extreme intelligence capacity, we complicate everything. Have you even seen the pure joy in a child's eyes? They are happy because everything is simple.

What news is being traded, second do we wait for an announcement on the thread to know which news event will move price?