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  • #701
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:57am Aug 13, 2013 8:57am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Hi, my views for discussion. Yes we are due a ZZT but the move in 15m is not right yet. stoch is not yet aligned, the unborn zone is not a "virgin" and the zone below is very hot because its been around for 11 days. I don't know how to trade this to be honest but longs should be taken carefully I believe. Just because all ZZB form does not mean a bottom. Learnt that the hard way
Hi Folks,

Work got in the way and I wasn't able to exit my Longs on the last 15M swing.
So currently underwater. Dammit. Wanted to ride it down.

But yes, I agree that we are due a Top. Good call blackqn regarding the lower zones... they've clearly attracted price.
The crucial indicator to watch out for is the 300EMA on the 1H. If price stays below this line, we're in Bear territory.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #702
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:58pm Aug 13, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting vlady1974
Compare the first 15M posted 1 hour ago to the next one. You'll see that the swing tops occurred... but the close was not outside BB. This is an unresolved price. It moved away pretty quickly. .
  • #703
  • Edited 7:12am Aug 14, 2013 4:36am | Edited 7:12am
Does anyone see one pregnent just below one born zone? So we need to clear born one or be below pregnant to avoid a trap.
Thoughts?

EDIT: M15

EDIT: I will share my thoughts and ask kindly for comments.

H4: ZZBot formed, but no force to go up and form ZZTop yet
H1: Born zone around 1,3292-1.3299 seems to be resistance so far, zone at 1.323 acts as a support, but it was tried several times, so it may weaken
M15: new zone aligned to yesterdays one, both shall act as a resistance preventing up-move.
Thus price most likely will go down

And now it is going to be moe interesting...

RV-1 shows on M15 sim-dissim turbulences price is trapped here, however these new zones are not on RV-2, so we shall just ignore them if I remember correctly.
Anywai it somehow shows strength of 1.323, easier way is down probably still

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130814eurusd.mm15.png Size: 40 KB


EDIT: Another dissim on RV-1, and consolidation of price is stronger (range thiner), strong move is what we shall expect. Will it clear strong H1 1.323 zone?
Time matters most
  • #704
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:43am Aug 14, 2013 8:43am
DS after DS, what is going on there?

Now price is trapped indeed. It may go anywhere, which way is easier now?

upper zone is oldest now, but wider, if we continue making zone on/in the szone and moving the price north that way.. wa can aim for north direction and ZZTop on H4, however the old and strong 1.323 H1 zone... what if we wait until it expires and ther renew attempt to pass it?

Any chessmaster to help in solve this puzzle?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130814rv2eurusd.mm15.png Size: 43 KB
Time matters most
  • #705
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:52am Aug 14, 2013 8:52am
I've got to say that this is one of the hardest setups I've seen in some weeks.
I can't call it. We're right on the edge of alot of thresholds... and I think the market knows it as well.

1H and 4H are callling for a ZZT. But I can see the 4H is weak. It can easily go lower.
I closed my longs for a $2.5K hit. Could have been bigger.... but the move back up just wasn't convincing and halted smack bang in the middle of the born zone.
If that's not indecision I don't know what is.

I will sit it out. IMHO we can only trade once the market makes a decision on the direction.
Anything more and we are basically gambling on being whipsawed.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #706
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:52am Aug 14, 2013 8:52am
Quoting blackqn
DS after DS, what is going on there? Now price is trapped indeed. It may go anywhere, which way is easier now? upper zone is oldest now, but wider, if we continue making zone on/in the szone and moving the price north that way.. wa can aim for north direction and ZZTop on H4, however the old and strong 1.323 H1 zone... what if we wait until it expires and ther renew attempt to pass it? Any chessmaster to help in solve this puzzle? {image}
Forgot to say... Very Nice Charts!
It's good that you are marking the levels in Red. Zone or no Zone, those prices remain relevant.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #707
  • Aug 14, 2013 9:04am Aug 14, 2013 9:04am
Quoting vlady1974
I've got to say that this is one of the hardest setups I've seen in some weeks. I can't call it. We're right on the edge of alot of thresholds... and I think the market knows it as well. 1H and 4H are callling for a ZZT. But I can see the 4H is weak. It can easily go lower. I closed my longs for a $2.5K hit. Could have been bigger.... but the move back up just wasn't convincing and halted smack bang in the middle of the born zone. If that's not indecision I don't know what is. I will sit it out. IMHO we can only trade once the market makes a decision...
Yeah this sure is hard...price is trapped ihmo, emas and smas are conflicted too
I want more brain power!
  • #708
  • Aug 14, 2013 9:11am Aug 14, 2013 9:11am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Yeah this sure is hard...price is trapped ihmo, emas and smas are conflicted too
The 1H shows price is now hovering under the 300EMA. It's bearish behaviour.
I've not looked at the calendar but there's got to be some news or announcement that can move this thing.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #709
  • Aug 14, 2013 9:20am Aug 14, 2013 9:20am
There was some weak ppi earlier and bullard is speaking later.but i will stay out, im not skilled enough for this :-
I want more brain power!
  • #710
  • Aug 14, 2013 10:27am Aug 14, 2013 10:27am
Quoting cfdtaleong
There was some weak ppi earlier and bullard is speaking later.but i will stay out, im not skilled enough for this :-
I think that's the best way mate. Let the price and trend come to you.... you earn more in trending movements.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #711
  • Aug 14, 2013 1:27pm Aug 14, 2013 1:27pm
I would like to add my 2 cents in here...
I have been studying lots of charts, staring at these Sim/DS setups.
I have also been thinking about divergence, which first came to my mind when EURUSDD brought this method to light.
Some others have also mentioned that this method smells of a divergence theory.

So, in a nutshell, I want to present this simple look at divergence using an old indicator I have been using since its been around. This idea seems simpler and maybe a way for others to take advantage of the "blackhole theory," that don't quite understand or follow what the heck EURUSDD has been trying to explain.

The CCfp indicator extracts individual currency strengths from all the major pairs, and presents an indicator of strength for each of the two currencies of whatever pair you are looking at (via settings). The picture attached shows what I mean about divergence and the "blackhole" theory as presented by EURUSDD. Using any currency and any timeframe it seems, once divergence is detected, price always (with disclaimer) returns to the highest/lowest price within the divergence zone (annotated as aqua).

Because CCfp is a global basis of currency strength, divergence is a footprint of the big boys moving money into a pair, pushing price of a pair beyond where price "should be" as noted by the strength of other pairs and individual currencies, which is what the indicator shows. I've heard others say that the big boys push price away from where they would like price to go, taking out stops etc., so they can get in at better prices. I'm not sure I believe that, but it fits into what divergence shows.

I have written several indicators and dashboards (with pre-alerts for divergence) scattered throughout FF that show CCfp in different timeframes, etc. But I may have to revisit them to modify for this specific theory. I will post the indicator I use (to follow), and if anyone has the time and interest to investigate further, I will do the same.

Carl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF-Blackholes.jpg Size: 526 KB
  • #712
  • Edited 2:16pm Aug 14, 2013 1:31pm | Edited 2:16pm
Attached is the CC-New indicator which is one that I modified slightly to use post-fixed (mini accounts-IBFX) currency pairs.

Carl

P.S. Set the first parameter to TRUE (ShowOnlyPairOnChart), to see as above. Otherwise it shows you all the pairs individually.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CC-New.mq4   18 KB | 690 downloads
  • #713
  • Aug 14, 2013 2:48pm Aug 14, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting crodzilla
Attached is the CC-New indicator which is one that I modified slightly to use post-fixed (mini accounts-IBFX) currency pairs. Carl P.S. Set the first parameter to TRUE (ShowOnlyPairOnChart), to see as above. Otherwise it shows you all the pairs individually. {file}
Intereresting approach! There's one divergence right at the end, opposite of those marked on the chart (should we call it a bottoming one?). As per concept, price should rise to the high of the divergence range, 0.9380 that is. Hasn't gone there yet, will look how it fares.

Will study it on lower TF's.

Thanks!
  • #714
  • Aug 14, 2013 2:52pm Aug 14, 2013 2:52pm
Quoting crodzilla
Attached is the CC-New indicator which is one that I modified slightly to use post-fixed (mini accounts-IBFX) currency pairs. Carl P.S. Set the first parameter to TRUE (ShowOnlyPairOnChart), to see as above. Otherwise it shows you all the pairs individually. {file}
Carl!

Many thanks for this! I'll try and give it a good test. What settings are you using on your chart?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #715
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:03pm Aug 14, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Carl! Many thanks for this! I'll try and give it a good test. What settings are you using on your chart?
Default settings. In actuality, settings change internally to the indicator (automatically) depending on what timeframe you look at.

Carl
  • #716
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:30pm Aug 14, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} Default settings. In actuality, settings change internally to the indicator (automatically) depending on what timeframe you look at. Carl
Thanks.

When price crosses the Bollinger Band Midpoint, the CC-New MAs crossover each other.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #717
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:39pm Aug 14, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Thanks. When price crosses the Bollinger Band Midpoint, the CC-New MAs crossover each other.
Hmmm.... maybe it was just me, but the indicator was just oscilating around the zero axis.
But I created another chart and it now looks like your chart.... apologies.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #718
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:44pm Aug 14, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hmmm.... maybe it was just me, but the indicator was just oscilating around the zero axis. But I created another chart and it now looks like your chart.... apologies.
Yea, keep in mind that when you first put the CC-New indy on a chart, MT4 has to load in that timeframe for all the major pairs. So, by switching timeframes back and forth, forces MT4 to fully load all required data.

Carl
  • #719
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:46pm Aug 14, 2013 3:46pm
Looking at this 1-HR timeframe for USDCHF, looks like price needs to continue down to .9320 to fill that "blackhole" divergence.

Carl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF-BH2.jpg Size: 465 KB
  • #720
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:54pm Aug 14, 2013 3:54pm
Another interesting tidbit...

For zigzag highs, the primary currency will always be above the secondary (for the CC-New indicator).
For zigzag lows, the secondary currency will always be above the primary.

So, for the USDCHF, if a zigzag high is indicated, the USD strength should always be above CHF strength.
And vice-versa.

So far, I have not found an instance to the contrary in any timeframe.
So, if there was an instance where the above rules were not true, could that tell us that zigzag WILL repaint???

I will download that repaint zigzag indicator and look...

Carl
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