AUD/USD

Monthly chart

I see the same Hoom. However I have been seeing that same thing on my indicators for 1.5 weeks now.

But no cross, and unless you are carry trading lots IDK it would be a primary focus (monthly)

Price action looking to break 50EMA on the 4H. Also short the beast (silver)

I'm sitting on the sideline right now, if we break this 908 area though I will probably jump in short looking for 903.

Going long big behbehz

Gonna be a pretty slow day today with a possible drop to 0.9030 area.

Holding support at .9085 Not much movement for the last hours. Consolidation phase.
If it breaks this level, it will definitely be very bearish.

Any thoughts anyone??

[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]The implications are that the Australian dollar, which has fallen more than 12 percent since the start of April to about 91 U.S. cents, has more room to fall, according to Englander. “We suspect it will take 85 cents or below for international investors to think that a major stabilization has occurred.” - Bloomberg[/highlight]

Yuh ever notice tight stops if you hit the report button and look at all your tyrades of the past week, and then look at price today.....do you notice that you would have been better giving a wider stop? check this out. I am a swing trader using daily bars. But for confirmation and also entry I use 60m bars. do you ever see how little room 3 60 min bars take up on the daily bar once it gets past midnight? its almost like using a tight stop of 1 or 2 bars is just natural noise thats going to get hit just in back and forth normal fluctualtions. I find the only time a tight stop works is if i anm sure a pivot and a specific bar is going to hold because big momentum is coming in. other wise, it seems you lose well over 60%. But thats me, does it happen to you as well?

marc

oh yes, many times, the market spike before reverse. but you 're not asking me,

UNCONSCIOUSLY WE ALL WANT A REASON TO GO LONG THE AUD!
yes, 1124, the poster above us gave us a bloomberg report thats probably right. My feeling for now is this.....why do we all WANT to look for an excuse to be a buyer. if we could have a 3 day drop right now, we wouldnt be as excited as if we had a 3 green bar rise!!! just think about that for a minute...................................

As far as the bloomberg report , the problem is that all the sellers already sold....there are just no buyers. None! So lets be on the look out for sideways movement all thru the rest of the week and ten a pop but its not that there are buyers, theres just no one on the other side to hold the price down and keep an efficient market.....for now! Yes it can go either way of course ,but if you acted like an oddsmaker or book-maker which i try to do which often times leads us to take the side we dont like because the r/r is huge....if you had to be a vegas bookie on this thing id make the price action for the next 4 weeks 66% down 33% up and 1% unchanged. So where is your best R/R/????

Me, i feel like we are all getting pushed to the sidelines like with the huge JPY move as we jumped on every dip as a reversal and went it resumed down we couldnt believe it would last much longer...but it did...and the banks did it the perfect way as the aud is doing now...its just grinding, chopping thru its path slowly like a lone explorer with a machete in the junge and then suddenly after all our waiting for a pivot to form or momentum either way to come in or a moving average to break and not come right back in again....we will probably see the AUD at 80.00 . Im thinking the american dollar is way overbought too but notice on bad news it doesnt dip much which measn eirther the end is near for the rally or the 11 banks are all supporting it so the question is..........

"If you are going to short the AUD, is the dollar the best currency to do it with? So far ,yes.

WHERE DO THE STOPS BELONG????
gwan, sometimes i think 3/4 of us traders spend most of our career on adjusting our stops over all things combined. Why is it when we give a pair room, we "discover" the pivot on the next lower time frame was only 20 pips away and we gave it 80 because thats where the 20ema is(or whatever average we use to get out).. so next time we take the closer pivot and then realize that this time the pair doesnt care about pivots its just making a pattern like to out of control ice scaters going round aND ROUND and up and back and then it moves 3-400 pips in our direction but we were too cheap to give it enough room because the lasst 3 trades we could have saved 50-60 pips by using the pivot or the 618 fib or whatever we use as our guage. this constant frustration of back and forth adjusting is a traders greatest frustration. Am I right? Now I am asking you? LOL i SAY THIS...if you are a winning trader with a winning method, you will almost always make something every week by being over generous with your stops. its the losing trader who gets saved by tight stops because hes on the wrong side to begin with. Id say this is true most but not in all cases. Anyone agree????? aND FINALLY I THINK MANY OF US REFUSE TO ADD THIS ONE RULE IN THAT WOULD SAVE US A FORTUNE EACH YEAR:

If we are pretty sure which way a pair is going, but have no idea where to place the stop or target, its probbaly not as good of a trade as we think and maybe we need to pass...or....watch it trade another day or 2(if you use daily bars like me) or watch another 3 or 4 bars if you use 60m bars like i somnetimes do.)

But i say this....if you are trading any time frame with less than 20-30 pip stops, you are working for the market maker. you cant win giving 10% away in pips every trade and win. bookies in football get rich on 5%, imagine these guys with their ability to play games working with 10%...and many give more than that!!!

good stuff S50

You must be for real.

here is my 2 cents to add:

If you have a trade and found good level for a stop before putting on a trade, and if stop holds and you are in profit....

sit on your hands and do not play (or minimal) with stop.

Why: because you must have a good system to be able to do that and you have conviction !

this is where real money is made. Yup, you will get stopped out on BE 8 out of 10 but 2 will make you 10 x more.

aud climb up ? shiit

if price can closed above current range . preferably above 0.9120, though is above 0.9115. will look to target at near 0.9180.

price not able to close below 908 for good 20hours..
yeap i think we will test 920 later tonight..

plus, if you look at lower TF such as 5min chart.. we are testing yesterday's US session high.. i think we will see a quick spike up to 920 area follow by another consolidation.. building momentum to break 920 resistance heading towards 930

My reason ->

Hi

It is still in the wedge

cheers

Long limit order @ 0.91