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  • #141
  • Aug 13, 2013 6:03am Aug 13, 2013 6:03am
Quoting draugas2
Hello bassramy Very nice picture would be even nicer if you can share the indicator and the TPL I would be very very grateful to you with respect We would like to try this unique work
I will have to refer you to my earlier post #14, here is the link.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post6784102

But i can promise you that if you contribute seriously to this thread or the Extreme TMA Thread and work hard with us mortals to Further develop this system u will get all my Indicators and templates for free, and believe me i do have some very interesting stuff in my pocket.

Welcome and Best regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #142
  • Aug 13, 2013 6:48am Aug 13, 2013 6:48am
Quoting bassramy
Retail Sales in U.S. Rose in July for Fourth Consecutive Month sent the Bucks to the roof as expected, and in doing so the EU and UCHF broke their respective long term trendline.

And now is the GU turn to break his Ascending trendline, the short term i mean, lets see if it follow through.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #143
  • Aug 13, 2013 11:13am Aug 13, 2013 11:13am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} And now is the GU turn to break his Ascending trendline, the short term i mean, lets see if it follow through.
Hello bassramy

Thank bassramy respects, and you are absolutely right, everything can be found on the Internet and it is not difficult, but it may take some time, but I wanted to try your unique work of the author, and surely a serious contribution in this thread, and work together
Also, I too have a good idea and surely will be pleased to discuss with you, I always appreciate other opinions and advice, thereby possibly improving their work
I think your work is certainly worthy of attention

Best Regards
  • #144
  • Edited 1:13am Aug 14, 2013 12:22am | Edited 1:13am
The H&S's that the EU formed on the H1 TF, take a look, targeting the projection of the H&S Down for those of you that like to trade patterns, i will be waiting for it to run his full range, right to the lower D1 Band before i start to search for a reversal.

A good place to short after the retest of the Broken level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1_raw.png Size: 84 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #145
  • Edited 1:21am Aug 14, 2013 1:05am | Edited 1:21am
I'm spotting an excellent opportunity to get @ the developing bullish trend of the AU and NU, this is a good value level to get @ this bull wagon that's starting to form.

If you missed the Bear entry on the GU and EU this is a good place to start shorting after PA broke down while breaking the ascending Trendlines and now retesting that break, these kind of entries will bring a minimal drawdown to your account but take an iron nerves and huge amount of patience and confidence in your trading skills.

I'm puzzled by the S&P500 Mini market, since 3 weeks we had an 8 Bullish pinbars that rejected the 1680 Level and still the PA couldn't break up, it always head down on the EU Session then it pulls up and form a pinbar on the NY Session, be it low liquidity, be it not so high volatility i don't know but PA seems to be stalling waiting for something to give, bear or bull.

If you count the Pinbars on the Mini Dow it will be 12 Pinbars just do it to see an amazing chart, the Dow is rejecting the 15350 - 70 Level or Previous resistance now turn support.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #epu3daily.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: #ymu3daily.png Size: 72 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #146
  • Aug 14, 2013 1:35am Aug 14, 2013 1:35am
GU, Claimant Count Change surprised to the upside, expect a minor rally, moreover i will be selling rallies so just look for a good resistance level to do it like the one right now the Descending trendline that seems the PA is rejected from.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1_raw.png Size: 62 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #147
  • Aug 14, 2013 1:45am Aug 14, 2013 1:45am
Quoting bassramy
The H&S's that the EU formed on the H1 TF, take a look, targeting the projection of the H&S Down for those of you that like to trade patterns, i will be waiting for it to run his full range, right to the lower D1 Band before i start to search for a reversal. A good place to short after the retest of the Broken level. {image}
Hi Bass.

This H&S is what I call an irregular H&S. Irregular as there is no divergence between the tops. Such H&S shapes a lot of times either don't deliver full potential or they fail. I'm not saying they never work, but the probability is lower if there is no divergence.

However, you will notice, there is now the first bullish divergence formed on h1. PA is very poor, and we definitely broke the h4 channel and TL to the downside, so in my book EU is unclear at best.

Long term perspective: weekly is forming a wedge, which has 2 possible counts.
- bullish: break of 1,3350 bullish
- break of 1,3000 bearish
Number are for now only possible ranges. Real break value will be determined on lower TFs.

Well, I'll let the picture speak for itself.

http://charts.mql5.com/2/270/eurusd-...rkets-as-2.png
  • #148
  • Aug 14, 2013 1:55am Aug 14, 2013 1:55am
Quoting bassramy
GU, Claimant Count Change surprised to the upside, expect a minor rally, moreover i will be selling rallies so just look for a good resistance level to do it like the one right now the Descending trendline that seems the PA is rejected from. {image}
I admit, I was also looking to 1,5380-1,54 for a bounce, so it came early. But, it was forming a double divergence for a while now. Is second divergence is not significantly lower than first one, you can expect a strong move, potentially a reversal.

Overall.... the move down is for now nothing more than a bullish flag. Future depends on whether we could break the higher supply zone or if we'll break bellow lower demand zone.

Anyway, the oscillators show you, the energy for this jump was accumulating for a while now. Outbursts like this are quite typical for GU, which is also the reason I rarely trade this pair. You can see at the begging of this chart 2-3 similar moves like this and later on another 2-3. So.... 5-6 erratic moves in 2 weeks makes one sudden movement every second day. Not my kind of pair to trade.


BR

http://charts.mql5.com/2/270/gbpusd-...ex-group-5.png
  • #149
  • Aug 14, 2013 2:08am Aug 14, 2013 2:08am
Quoting tp0440
{quote} I admit, I was also looking to 1,5380-1,54 for a bounce, so it came early. But, it was forming a double divergence for a while now. Is second divergence is not significantly lower than first one, you can expect a strong move, potentially a reversal. Overall.... the move down is for now nothing more than a bullish flag. Future depends on whether we could break the higher supply zone or if we'll break bellow lower demand zone. Anyway, the oscillators show you, the energy for this jump was accumulating for a while now. Outbursts like this are...
T., Thank you for ur analysis and for ur contribution, much appreciated so keep them coming.

As far as the GU, this is typically a volatile pair that's why one should approach it with a long term view rather than short and that's why u should trade it @ least on the H1 TF, i know i do on the H1, H4 and D1 and very successfully, on these TF's i hardly notice the Volatility it sails smooth as the most low volatility pairs.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #150
  • Aug 14, 2013 2:18am Aug 14, 2013 2:18am
Hi Bass.


No problem, I'll gladly contribute to your thread. It'd also be nice to add some bands, but as I said... I don't really use the anymore.

Well, the GU is ok on higher TFs, I'm aware of that. But by nature I'm intraday trader, so this kind of ruins is for me. To bad as the pair has decent volatility.
Right now I'd say pullback to 1,5450 will form inside bar and this will provide more clues on short term future.


BTW: I read above, you are looking for people to further develop the ETMA. I'd gladly help, but as I don't use it, I don't really fit in. However, I did learn to read PA based on ... well, more direct tools like patterns, TL and a lot based on RSI or put better, TDI. If this works for you, count me in.


BR
  • #151
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:13am Aug 14, 2013 3:13am
Quoting tp0440
Hi Bass. No problem, I'll gladly contribute to your thread. It'd also be nice to add some bands, but as I said... I don't really use the anymore. Well, the GU is ok on higher TFs, I'm aware of that. But by nature I'm intraday trader, so this kind of ruins is for me. To bad as the pair has decent volatility. Right now I'd say pullback to 1,5450 will form inside bar and this will provide more clues on short term future. BTW: I read above, you are looking for people to further develop the ETMA. I'd gladly help, but as I don't use it, I don't really...
To tell you the truth T., i trade several strategies Including Raw PA like you noticed but I'm pissed off when a passer by or a hitch hiker asks for your system or a strategy that i spent countless days and nights developing without even spending 1 minute on your thread or sharing even 1 tough or Tool, and in the end if you asked them to download the indicators and build the template themselves they say " it takes time so why don't you email us yours ", that kind of attitude just " toooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuut ", this lazy attitude is not acceptable for me and that's exactly why i share my work only with the members that's committed to share, develop and really trade the threads system be it the ETMA or the ETMATE , even thought the Indicators are found for free on the web they don't bother even search for them and develop their own template.

THE PLAIN TRUTH IS THAT I DON'T NEED ANYONE TO HELP ME DEVELOP ANYTHING, i can do all the work myself and I'm pretty good @ it and that's why I'm still around after 9 Years of trading full of Highs and lows, but what i like is someone and before asking for my templates and indicators to say let's try to take this further, let's work together, like you, and by the way thank you for your offer its much appreciated, i have a " learn from anyone and forever Attitude ".

A doctor and in order to have a high income, invest thousands and thousands of dollars on his 10 - 12 years of education and countless days and nights so why should it be different in trading, after all its a business like the others.

Speaking about TF's, i like to say that i'm a daily trader myself i don't like to intraday trade but because waiting for a daily candle to close take 24 Hours i keep myself busy with a swing trading strategy like the ETMATE which account for a 15 - 20 % of my trading portfolio, the other 80% is a long term trend following Strategies that takes between 1 week to several months to develop.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #152
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:06pm Aug 14, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting bassramy
{quote} To tell you the truth T., i trade several strategies Including Raw PA like you noticed but I'm pissed off when a passer by or a hitch hiker asks for your system or a strategy that i spent countless days and nights developing without even spending 1 minute on your thread or sharing even 1 tough or Tool, and in the end if you asked them to download the indicators and build the template themselves they say " it takes time so why don't you email us yours ", that kind of attitude just " toooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuut ", this lazy attitude is not...
Hi Bass.


I hear you and I understand you. I basically stopped reading forums as all I was getting was ... well, no way to put it any other way - freeloaders.

Having different strategies is more or less a must. Well, 2-3 anyway. It depends on volatility of the market, time frames, to some extend even on instruments you trade. I know that very well, as I do the same. But I try to upkeep the least possible number templates or I even just apply a bit different way how to read the chart on same template. That's possible after you start to understand the PA.

People just don't want to understand. It's not about tools, indicators, templates. It's about mastering certain set of tools, whatever they are, even if charts are blank. In fact, first thing a trader should master is a blank chart. So in reality, it's about trader, not about tools.

So from here on - I know you don't need anybody to work with you. But it's a lonely business and exchanging a few ideas now and then is still handy and can be fun. That's about it.


BR
  • #153
  • Aug 15, 2013 1:25pm Aug 15, 2013 1:25pm
Well, now it's post festum time for analysis.

If anybody want to check my picture in post #148 you'll see, I haven't changed a thing. The demand zone which was market already before was only extended to show support in later PA and it clearly held. So, all a trader has to do is follow long signal after the break, or potentially even start with first long position after the trend was changed to bullish in marked fibbo rations, seen also as EMAs color changed to blue. As I already stated in my previous post, the surge up we discussed back than was a possible reversal on given TF and all targets long (TP1 and fibbo 141, TP2 at 200 adn TP3 at 261.8) were hit.

Now we are already seeing first divergence, which by itself means nothing to me. But alone the fact, that we reached TP3 is now a potential for short.


And the picture:
http://charts.mql5.com/2/285/gbpusd-...ex-group-2.png



EURUSD was a harder nut to crack, but we revisited the weekly top pattern as seen here on daily chart.
http://charts.mql5.com/2/285/eurusd-...orex-group.png

Like I already stated.... I'm not a long term trader, but checking PA first from long term TF to set targets (S&R) and monitoring PA from short time frames, is my way (but looking at PA in patterns, not in individual candles).



BR
  • #154
  • Aug 16, 2013 12:19am Aug 16, 2013 12:19am
Quoting tp0440
{quote} Hi Bass. I hear you and I understand you. I basically stopped reading forums as all I was getting was ... well, no way to put it any other way - freeloaders. Having different strategies is more or less a must. Well, 2-3 anyway. It depends on volatility of the market, time frames, to some extend even on instruments you trade. I know that very well, as I do the same. But I try to upkeep the least possible number templates or I even just apply a bit different way how to read the chart on same template. That's possible after you start to understand...
That's absolutely true, like i said before this business is unforgivable, Markets are always changing, that's why we have to keep the " learn from anyone and forever Attitude ".

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #155
  • Aug 16, 2013 12:20am Aug 16, 2013 12:20am
Quoting tp0440
Well, now it's post festum time for analysis. If anybody want to check my picture in post #148 you'll see, I haven't changed a thing. The demand zone which was market already before was only extended to show support in later PA and it clearly held. So, all a trader has to do is follow long signal after the break, or potentially even start with first long position after the trend was changed to bullish in marked fibbo rations, seen also as EMAs color changed to blue. As I already stated in my previous post, the surge up we discussed back than was...
Even if you trade short term you have a duty to do your top down analysis to see where the Markets stand @ this very short term moment.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #156
  • Aug 16, 2013 1:35am Aug 16, 2013 1:35am
I had to post this for u to see for this explains exactly my Trading philosophy

5 Unbreakable Rules for Trend Trading
Long-term trends can be highly lucrative for astute traders who can correctly identify them and then properly manage their position—and their emotions—for the duration of the trade.

Believe What You See, Not What You Hear or Read

Trust that price and price patterns price are accurate reflections of the underlying fundamentals. We won’t see sustained price movement without supporting economics. However, given the large amount of information on the Internet today, it is too easy to think there is a logical explanation for every micro move the market produces.
The reasons why large traders or funds enter or exit trades are generally known only to them, and even those traders will second guess themselves. Do not read too much into the analysis of intraday price reactions that are tied to short-term news releases. Instead, trust that at the end of the day, week, etc., price action will have gotten it right.
As you can see below, the current price pattern on the chart is showing a clear pattern of higher lows and higher highs. Traders must regard that information as being more valuable than what is said or written about the market.

Read the Charts, Not the News

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...is_June28A.png

Don’t Overemphasize Market Correlations

There will be days when a trending asset like the US dollar (USD) is strong and the US stock market is weak, and there will also be days when both are moving in sync. Bonds and their supposed relation to other markets or assets can be especially tempting as well.
Do not try to outguess the market or time it based on yesterday’s correlations. There’s no doubt that markets are similar to people in that they are social entities where large movement in one can—and often will—affect the behavior of another. But just as people’s habits change, so too will market correlations, and it is better not to rely on correlations staying the same.

Learn to Set it and Forget it

There is no amount of advice that can prepare traders for the temptation of exiting a trade too soon, or conversely, ignoring money-management rules in order to maximize profits. Trading is the most intense self-examination there is, and no matter how prepared you think you are, there’s always room to learn and grow.
The hardest thing you will ever learn in trading is simply to let a profit run. Once in the trade, set your stop loss (preferably further back than you initially think) and try to forget about the trade altogether.
Do not think that you overlooked something in your analysis, do not search out articles to support your thesis, and do not look at the trade every few minutes. In other words, do not dig up the seed to see if it is growing.

Buy Dips in Uptrends and Sell Rallies in Downtrends

This is the “golden rule” of trading and the first thing we learn on a trading floor. No matter the strength of a trend, there will always be intraday or intraweek countertrend reactions that provide opportunities for astute traders. Often times, these countertrend moves follow news which contradicts the prevailing pattern or trend.
Always know when influential news releases are scheduled, because when the news itself it counter to the overall pattern, a countertrend move will generally follow because shorter-term traders get scared out of their positions. This generally leads to an opportunity to buy a dip in the uptrend, or sell a rally in the downtrend.

Don’t Try to Pick the Top or Bottom

While many of us want to pick the top or bottom in a market because we perceive less risk, the truth is that professional traders simply want to participate in the top third of a move because that is when the rewards are greatest and occur fastest.
The majority of professional traders rely on some measure of momentum to time their trades. At Trading University, we teach two types of triggers: 1) zone trades, where we are buying or selling at support or resistance; and 2) momentum trades, where we are buying based on overall pattern and shorter-term momentum.
Over the course of the day, we see many more momentum trades than zone trades, and our risk is also lower for the momentum trades, so we trade those larger. While “Buy low, sell high” is good advice, for momentum traders, the best advice is “Buy high, sell higher.”
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #157
  • Aug 16, 2013 2:09am Aug 16, 2013 2:09am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} Even if you trade short term you have a duty to do your top down analysis to see where the Markets stand @ this very short term moment. Best, B.R.
Of course. As you see from my charts, I execute on short TF in order to get in and get out quickly. It can be as low as min5.

But this doesn't change the fact, that such moves are mere blibs in overall movement. So, I go minimally to h4 to se bigger picture, big picture is done on weekly. It might sound crazy, but not really. On weekly you need seconds to see situation. On h4 perhaps minutes, to determine S&R while on min15-5, where execution takes place, I spend most of the trading time.

But this philosophy only applies when trading intranet with bigger positions. Your type of trading is the same only from weekly down to h1 I guess.

Bottom line again: different traders will prefer different trading styles. We might use different tools, different time frames, but in reality, we observe same stuff. Which is interesting to me as the differences, when put together, present even a better overview. I guess that's why I always liked your analysis.


BR
  • #158
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:32am Aug 16, 2013 3:32am
Yesterday's EU Daily Candle got me worried, i couldn't help noticing how the Market tried to break support only to be strongly rejected and not only that it broke resistance in the same day, call it bullish engulfing ( Engulfed 4 days of PA ), call it piercing line, whatever you want but this huge candle is a very strong sign of bullish trend continuation, Jesse Livermore use to use these kinds of candles or bars to pinpoint Market reversals and he mention it several times in his writings as a very strong Market change indication.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 25 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #159
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:39am Aug 16, 2013 3:39am
Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:

1. "Money is made by sitting, not trading."

2. "It takes time to make money."

3. "It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting."

4. "Nobody can catch all the fluctuations."

5. "The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages."

6. "Buy right, sit tight."

7. "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

8. "Don't give me timing, give me time."

and finally, the most important thing:
9. "There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play."
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #160
  • Aug 16, 2013 6:57am Aug 16, 2013 6:57am
Quoting bassramy
Yesterday's EU Daily Candle got me worried, i couldn't help noticing how the Market tried to break support only to be strongly rejected and not only that it broke resistance in the same day, call it bullish engulfing ( Engulfed 4 days of PA ), call it piercing line, whatever you want but this huge candle is a very strong sign of bullish trend continuation, Jesse Livermore use to use these kinds of candles or bars to pinpoint Market reversals and he mention it several times in his writings as a very strong Market change indication. {image}
Possible, I don't know yet.
This could create pop-gun and final divergence for short. 1,3380-1,3420 will be the range to determine whether we really have reversal or not. All I know, this level is strongly defended. Mr. Bernanke will have to print big time to break it. If yes, 1,35+, here we come. But if not, 1,29 is better bet. EDIT: more likely is at least temporary short IMHO due to strong R.


BR
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