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Simple Sma-based strategy

  • #81
  • Aug 12, 2013 12:29pm Aug 12, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting Zerrox
{quote} Don't be sorry It's always a work in progress with these things the first couple of versions. Could you perhaps send me a PM with screenshots of where it fails and the settings it used? Maybe we can work it out and get something that can work consistently. //edit Have you set the variable "Set_TargetProfit" to true and the "Use_TrailingStop" to false? And notice also that the TimeFrame setting needs to be correct according to the timeframe you are backtesting on.
Oh. Now you talk .
It works now. Let me check more.
  • #82
  • Aug 12, 2013 12:34pm Aug 12, 2013 12:34pm
It still has some bugs.
See PM.
  • #83
  • Aug 12, 2013 1:08pm Aug 12, 2013 1:08pm
#Post68 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6887072#post6887072) exits and some profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m5-exit.PNG Size: 44 KB
  • #84
  • Aug 12, 2013 1:43pm Aug 12, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting xfiles
#Post68 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6887072#post6887072) exits and some profit {image}
Great!
  • #85
  • Aug 12, 2013 3:32pm Aug 12, 2013 3:32pm
Hi smilee, I don't know if someone has asked this or not.... Once you meet the first condition of the smas, if price croses the 30 sma (not the 60) and then retraces back, do you count 10 new bars from the beginning or not?
  • #86
  • Aug 12, 2013 3:48pm Aug 12, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting tradefish
Hi smilee, I don't know if someone has asked this or not.... Once you meet the first condition of the smas, if price croses the 30 sma (not the 60) and then retraces back, do you count 10 new bars from the beginning or not?
No.
you just wait then to close behind 60.
  • #87
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:25pm Aug 12, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting smilee89
I trade this strategy for more than 6 months already. I like to trade intradays mostly 5-30 minutes. There are no recommended value to TP and SL. I repeat again - each pair/TF/volatility has its own targets. When all 4 targets hit the SL (which is very rare) I mostly recover this loss after not more than a month or so, sometimes it takes less than a week, it depends how many trades I take in 1 day.
hi smilee

the reason why i asked in your experience which timeframe is the best to trade and you have had the most success with, is because in essence this is actually trading the bounce off the sma's. not all timeframes will respect these sma's equally. for example the 5 min timeframe may respect the price bounce off the sma';s more accurately than the 15min timeframe. in the 1min timeframe price may disregard the sma's and go straight through them, the 1hr may respect less than the 5 min....and so on. you get my point.

so from your experience you may have come across a timeframe that respects these sma's more than the others and is more accurate.


also:

when entering at each stage do you close the previous open trade, or leave it running ? i assume you close te previous trade to avoid further losses ?

what made you come up with the size lot ratios of 1:1:3:6 and not any other combos ?

you say the 300 sma is not required in the initial assessment, so what is the point of having it ?


it would be good to see a table of results for a few months on your usage of this system...

regards
  • #88
  • Edited 8:12pm Aug 12, 2013 7:43pm | Edited 8:12pm
whatfx,

smilee said to place the SL for all 4 entries below the 400SMA, so no close of previous entries.

if price gets to 400SMA and you enter your 4th entry, you`re looking at a big drawdown from the 1st, 2nd and 3rd entry.
when you enter your 4th entry, you place your TP at a price which will cover your drawdown from the first, second and third entries + a little profit.
because of the larger lot size, you don't need a large TP to cover your drawdown.

at this stage you can also close your 1st, 2nd and 3rd entries or leave it open if you think price will move further. or leave 2nd and 3rd open. or only leave 3rd entry open.
I might leave the 3rd entry open with a small SL to see if price will go further.
what do you do in this case smilee?

in my view the 300sma is not required in the initial assessment, because it could still cross over other sma`s when the 1st entry at 60sma is taken.
the 300 sma is only there to take an entry later.

smilee will correct me if I`m wrong.

smilee, I admire your patience...........
  • #89
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:44pm Aug 12, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting whatfx
{quote} hi smilee the reason why i asked in your experience which timeframe is the best to trade and you have had the most success with, is because in essence this is actually trading the bounce off the sma's. not all timeframes will respect these sma's equally. for example the 5 min timeframe may respect the price bounce off the sma';s more accurately than the 15min timeframe. in the 1min timeframe price may disregard the sma's and go straight through them, the 1hr may respect less than the 5 min....and so on. you get my point. so from your experience...

It would be good to the see the Stat's on bounces from all those ma lines, given say 20pips of accuracy ofcourse as it's not perfect.

It's likely 20% bounce of fastest MA, then 30, 40, 45 area odds, but ofcourse your first entry has 3 other reversal shots.

Bigger the TF bigger the distance between the ma's, bigger the profit and bigger the SL ofcourse.

I'd go 1:2:4:8 personally, better odds of the nearer ones working out for a smaller SL so it makes sense to use some kinda sequence like this.

I'm just trading M5 200ema and 40ema ( m1 200ema ), getting some good test results but it's not everything I use but a good start basis.

I go 2:1 ratio wise, with a 30SL, I find it I get to the 1 order odds are it's game over and sometimes very quickly, it's worth having the 1, it's worth having the space but no point risking more than 1/2 the initial position, I used to trade 1:2, but never enough profit from the 1 to if the 2 doesn't hit to cover the losses shortly after the 2 fills!!

Math's and Stat's are a PAIN!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #90
  • Edited 11:54pm Aug 12, 2013 10:57pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting tradefish
One thing that I think it's important with this strategy, and that somehow is not easy to programm in an EA, is the "good looking" of the sma. I mean, if you look doing manual backtest, you will find that the best oportunities are the ones with smas in order and with more or less the same gap between them. I don't know if you understand what I mean...... More or less this strategy is similar to the one of Hector Deville. Look for it in google if you wish.....
Must say I agree with you on the SMA gap spacing, I traded this system yesterday but with a twist, I divided the distance between the 400 sma and 60 sma into 4 equal parts, this made it easier to set T/P and define a exit area once the 4th position opened, my testing yesterday found the M5 to be a waste of time as a quick 100 pip move will have you in trouble more often than not, I will be trading the M30 to 4H. Took an easy 5% yesterday using the above approach

Here is a pic of the way I trade the system
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-13 05_07_26-2089056194_ MetaTrader 4 IC Markets - Demo Account - [AUDNZDi,H4].jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #91
  • Aug 13, 2013 12:12am Aug 13, 2013 12:12am
hi podberry,

you don't have a 30sma on your chart to count 10-11 bars above/below it?
  • #92
  • Edited 12:51am Aug 13, 2013 12:17am | Edited 12:51am
Quoting yonnie
hi podberry, you don't have a 30sma on your chart to count 10-11 bars above/below it?

Hi Yonnie, I personally see no need for the 30 sma and counting bars, as long as the 60 sma is a distance away from the 200 sma then all is well.

The key for me 'Visually' is the 400, 300 and 200 sma being equally spaced and parallel, for that reason I don't believe an ea would work.

Sorry for late replies, changed my profile name yesterday as it had my real name and surname from 2006 which is not good nowadays, and now I have to get Mods approval every time I post.....lol.... Takes a while
  • #93
  • Aug 13, 2013 1:04am Aug 13, 2013 1:04am
thank you podberry

the biggest challenge might be: where do we take profit.

did some backtesting on the 15m and the maximum profits on 1st entries were: 49-27-51-21-17-35-25-17-37.

so where would be your TP?
  • #94
  • Edited 1:40am Aug 13, 2013 1:22am | Edited 1:40am
Quoting yonnie
thank you podberry the biggest challenge might be: where do we take profit. did some backtesting on the 15m and the maximum profits on 1st entries were: 49-27-51-21-17-35-25-17-37. so where would be your TP?
Yonnie, I 'would' have taken profit all the way down as per the pic, would be up around 500 pips. If the trades were say 20 pips in profit, I would close and open a new trade immediately and reset my grid whilst ensuring I don't rack up my broker commissions. I 'would' have opened new trades irrespective of price being below the 60 sma as per the pic, that's why I don't wait for 10 candles, keep riding the trend IMO.

The reason I said 'would' is that the system was not available when the trend started, thanks to smilee89 (http://www.forexfactory.com/smilee89) for sharing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-13 07_09_54-2089056194_ MetaTrader 4 IC Markets - Demo Account - [AUDNZDi,H4].jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #95
  • Edited 2:08am Aug 13, 2013 1:51am | Edited 2:08am
This is why I don't like the M5 timeframe, almost got stopped out, will close it at BE once it reaches the red 400 ema, I may
even close it now for a small loss.

You will also notice the sma's move quickly on the M5, ones grid does not resemble what it looked like the day before when the first trades were opened

Edit: closed at -0.23% loss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-13 07_46_21-2089056194_ MetaTrader 4 IC Markets - Demo Account - [AUDCHFi,M5].png Size: 45 KB
  • #96
  • Aug 13, 2013 4:19am Aug 13, 2013 4:19am
Quoting podberry
This is why I don't like the M5 timeframe, almost got stopped out, will close it at BE once it reaches the red 400 ema, I may even close it now for a small loss. You will also notice the sma's move quickly on the M5, ones grid does not resemble what it looked like the day before when the first trades were opened Edit: closed at -0.23% loss {image}


that is what i meant in my previous post. not all timeframes respect the sma's equally.

with this method the risk:reward is not good. you risk around 100 pips just to make 15-30 pips. all that needs to happen is for you to have 2-3 consecutive losses and you are down potentially 300 pips or more. you then need to have at least 10 winnings in a row to recover this loss. 10 winnings in a row may not happen, another one loss will bring you down again.

i do not trade anything which gives an r:r of less than 1:1. ideally iam looking for at least 1:2.

for that reason i will only be demo testing this method at present with a view to improving the r:r.


good luck
  • #97
  • Aug 13, 2013 5:25am Aug 13, 2013 5:25am
Quoting podberry
This is why I don't like the M5 timeframe, almost got stopped out, will close it at BE once it reaches the red 400 ema, I may even close it now for a small loss. You will also notice the sma's move quickly on the M5, ones grid does not resemble what it looked like the day before when the first trades were opened Edit: closed at -0.23% loss {image}
hi podberry

looking at the chart you posted in which you closed the trade with a small loss, seems to me that the entry conditions indicated by smilee (10+bars lows above/below sma 30 and all smas in order i.e. not crossing each other) are not respected. Am I correct?

thx
  • #98
  • Aug 13, 2013 6:09am Aug 13, 2013 6:09am
Quoting Nacho
{quote} hi podberry looking at the chart you posted in which you closed the trade with a small loss, seems to me that the entry conditions indicated by smilee (10+bars lows above/below sma 30 and all smas in order i.e. not crossing each other) are not respected. Am I correct? thx
That's correct, I enter without the 10 bars, here is a trade I open earlier on the EJ H1, it is now kicking me where 'the sun don't shine'. Guess the Yen pairs are a no no due to them taking off like rockets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-13 12_03_57-2089056194_ MetaTrader 4 IC Markets - Demo Account - [EURJPYi,H1].jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #99
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:42am Aug 13, 2013 8:42am
I like this system..
But when it's comes to entry 1:1:3:6, it more like "Martingale system".

a bit confuse for TF that we should use for it.
Still want to figure more later..


Keep it up..Smiley..
  • #100
  • Aug 13, 2013 11:05am Aug 13, 2013 11:05am
I think, we check for system money managment. 1 loss mean, a lot of tp with first and second entry.

If someone write EA and add settings for lot size, pending orders, sl, tp, trailing stop etc.. we trying and optimize it very well.
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