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  • #561
  • Aug 10, 2013 10:32pm Aug 10, 2013 10:32pm
Soybeans

Despite a COT Bull warning (which at the moment only confirms price is very weak) I like the Beans to the downside.....still.
We can see what appears to be a failed pullback at previous support across a number of contracts.
The bearish price pattern (shooting star) on Friday looks like a great place to short. Will be looking to do this Monday.
Since this is a pretty well advanced trend I will be looking for a swing rather than long term position trade.
Especially given the Bullish COT position.
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  • #562
  • Aug 10, 2013 10:33pm Aug 10, 2013 10:33pm
CHF/JPY

Pretty self-explanatory really.....
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  • #563
  • Aug 11, 2013 9:15am Aug 11, 2013 9:15am
Quoting mypipbull
CHF/JPY Pretty self-explanatory really..... {image}

I don't normally look at this pair - thanks Mike.

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  • #564
  • Aug 11, 2013 9:57am Aug 11, 2013 9:57am
My bias is to sell the yen based on fundi's - think I need to be very patient with the yen pairs.

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  • #565
  • Aug 12, 2013 12:41am Aug 12, 2013 12:41am
Quoting stewrigh
My bias is to sell the yen based on fundi's - think I need to be very patient with the yen pairs. {image}
Fair enough. I shorted USD/JPY primarily as more of a technical sell for the following reasons:
1) Short term trend is down
2) Looked like good value (around the band)
3) Downtrend line respected (4th or 5th touch depending how you read it)
4) Impressive round number rejection (100)
5) Price pattern looked bearish.

COT is bearish this pair but.......it has been for a long time......this was not the primary motivator.

Would imagine a fair bounce at about 94 should we get that far.
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  • #566
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:12am Aug 12, 2013 9:12am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Not sure to of the stats to be honest. I do not track them, I have mentioned before that I find these numbers a distraction. But if I had to guess I would say 50% correct (could be less)....but have I made money this year......yes is the answer but nothing earth shattering. How about yourself?

Hi MPB

I haven't made earth shattering profits this year as well but 2 things I know and can tell you.

I am profitable
I am a better trader since I increased my timeframe to daily



BTW the year is not finished yet and some good trends are going to present when all volume is back

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #567
  • Aug 12, 2013 2:01pm Aug 12, 2013 2:01pm
There's an extreme hurdle to cross with psychology when it comes to being profitable in a controlled per annum basis,imho, once achieved your whole
subconscious will take on a whole new dimension with your belief system, a deep inner core of confidence that breeds success..

one of the main components imho is draw down...absolutely keep it to a minimum and you'll keep your sanity.. pay as much attention to
preservation as gain...and the good times will ride... that's part of my rules anyway..

Its really great to hear you guys are up so far this year, not forgetting July and August are completely shit months ( normally for me anyway ) ..
So the best months are still to come, I'm sure.. wish everyone longevity in success for part 2 of 2013..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #568
  • Aug 12, 2013 3:28pm Aug 12, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting j4d
So the best months are still to come, I'm sure.. wish everyone longevity in success for part 2 of 2013..
Amen to that. Double Amen
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #569
  • Aug 12, 2013 5:13pm Aug 12, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi MPB I haven't made earth shattering profits this year as well but 2 things I know and can tell you. I am profitable I am a better trader since I increased my timeframe to daily BTW the year is not finished yet and some good trends are going to present when all volume is back Olu
Well done O. Consistency and continuous improvement are the keys to success. Clearly you possess both. Keep it up.
  • #570
  • Aug 12, 2013 5:20pm Aug 12, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting j4d
There's an extreme hurdle to cross with psychology when it comes to being profitable in a controlled per annum basis,imho, once achieved your whole subconscious will take on a whole new dimension with your belief system, a deep inner core of confidence that breeds success.. one of the main components imho is draw down...absolutely keep it to a minimum and you'll keep your sanity.. pay as much attention to preservation as gain...and the good times will ride... that's part of my rules anyway.. Its really great to hear you guys...
Nice post Jay. Everyone has their own demons in trading and when you break down the cause it usually leads you back to the one issue most people do not want to face (because its hard to manage) PSYCHOLOGY.

I remember reading this when I began trading and overlooked it as I 'knew' the answer was in figuring out the chart puzzle.

It takes time to be consistently profitable and I know I still have a way to got yet.

Thanks for sharing guys.
  • #571
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:41pm Aug 12, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting mypipbull
T-Bond - Short Update
Slowly moving down. Will probably lower my stop to the high one day forward of current tomorrow. It will not be at BE but will at least reduce a bit of exposure without getting too close to price action.
I did take some profit and moved stop to BE a week or so ago. Today I got stopped out on the remaining position for BE. Today also formed a short reversal bar. A good looking signal as it's with the current trend, rejected a trend line and is also at value. However, the downside looks limited to 132. With 132 as the first hurdle I would struggle to get 2R off this Daily signal. Since price has failed to break 132 twice it's quite possible it will do the opposite. So for the time being I am flat.
My next actions depend on how it plays out:
Bear Scenario -> Reversal plays out and 132 gets broken then I sell a pullback.
Bull Scenario -> Reversal fails and trendline broken then I buy a pullback.

I will wait to see who is right and follow their lead.
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  • #572
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:03pm Aug 12, 2013 8:03pm
AUD/USD - Short


Got a nice short signal today reasons to trade below:
1) With current strong mature trend
2) Good value (not chasing the market)
3) Potential LH confirmed with this bar as well as LL with the recent downswing.
4) No significant weekly support in the way (0.88 is unconfirmed at the moment)

This trade is taken late in the trend so risk is halved as it is a swing trade.

As always there are some concerns noted below:
1) A fair amount of upward momentum, the last 4 days have been very strong.
2) Today's bar did not really reverse much as it looks to have barely ticked above yesterdays high.
3) Weekly's indicate Bullish Warning in place.


The Pros outweigh Cons to me so orders placed.
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  • #573
  • Aug 13, 2013 1:32am Aug 13, 2013 1:32am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hmmm {image}
Anyone still in this? I love divergence lol.

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  • #574
  • Aug 13, 2013 6:18am Aug 13, 2013 6:18am
Quoting mypipbull
Soybeans
Despite a COT Bull warning (which at the moment only confirms price is very weak) I like the Beans to the downside.....still. We can see what appears to be a failed pullback at previous support across a number of contracts. The bearish price pattern (shooting star) on Friday looks like a great place to short. Will be looking to do this Monday. Since this is a pretty well advanced trend I will be looking for a swing rather than long term position trade. Especially given the Bullish COT position.
Yikes!! Short orders cancelled......
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  • #575
  • Aug 19, 2013 6:02pm Aug 19, 2013 6:02pm
NZD/USD - Short Orders

Short reversal bar today at a nice weekly resistance/supply area.
Good extension past previous highs and then strong rejection and close near the low.
Risk halved due to being counter trend.
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  • #576
  • Aug 19, 2013 9:18pm Aug 19, 2013 9:18pm
EUR/USD - Short Orders

Short reversal bar yesterday with an inside bearish looking bar today at a weekly resistance/supply area.
Risk halved due to being counter trend.
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  • #577
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:53pm Aug 20, 2013 4:53pm
Quoting mypipbull
EUR/USD - Short Orders Short reversal bar yesterday with an inside bearish looking bar today at a weekly resistance/supply area. Risk halved due to being counter trend.
Orders cancelled.....
  • #578
  • Edited 10:37pm Aug 20, 2013 4:53pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting mypipbull
NZD/USD - Short Orders Short reversal bar today at a nice weekly resistance/supply area. Good extension past previous highs and then strong rejection and close near the low. Risk halved due to being counter trend. {image}
Short opened.
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  • #579
  • Aug 21, 2013 1:15am Aug 21, 2013 1:15am
Quoting mypipbull
ABX - Barrick Gold Daily Chart {image}
I think at least a mid term bottom is in now. Going to buy a pullback soon hopefully
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  • #580
  • Aug 25, 2013 3:58am Aug 25, 2013 3:58am
Quoting stewrigh
You might be interested in this Mike. http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/08...ady-to-pay-up/ {image}
Time to add soon??

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