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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #8,421
  • Aug 9, 2013 1:36pm Aug 9, 2013 1:36pm
we are in the last down wave which is wave 5 of C after that we will have a strong bullish wave I will buy once wave 5 finished

that's my plan
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  • #8,422
  • Aug 9, 2013 5:05pm Aug 9, 2013 5:05pm
msniper.. that is an interesting scenerio......i will be observing...interesting that the 148.23 low is holding from the h pattern and now it appears it will be trying to form an m pattern ...if that holds that may be bulliish if it doesnt .it would be very bearish esp from a peak E top on the daily and on the weekly....this is avery interesting pair
  • #8,423
  • Aug 9, 2013 10:08pm Aug 9, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting netera
Geppy & EatPips ; where are you guys ? Thread needs your posts
I agree. Come back guys, we need you.

And I could use some motivation to say the least (you have no idea what kind of hell I've been through lately, and that is not in reference to just trading).

I have fallen down now about 700,000 times and it's getting progressively harder to stand up. I'm afraid this could be my last straw.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,424
  • Aug 9, 2013 10:12pm Aug 9, 2013 10:12pm
hang in there man...currently im up over 200 pips on this trade....i love this pair
  • #8,425
  • Aug 9, 2013 11:24pm Aug 9, 2013 11:24pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I agree. Come back guys, we need you. And I could use some motivation to say the least (you have no idea what kind of hell I've been through lately, and that is not in reference to just trading). I have fallen down now about 700,000 times and it's getting progressively harder to stand up. I'm afraid this could be my last straw.
The thing is that you're trying to trade GJ in a rather complex correction/consolidation top. OK, it's not "rather" complex - it's bloody complex. You can make good money in a trend. You can loose all your money in a correction.

But the next day or two will become very much clearer. I acknowledge that you're a day trader, but sometimes you have to appreciate the bigger picture to have confidence in your trades - and even daily charts don't help much.

This is a monthly chart, going back to 2008. Since that time GJ has operated in what you could call a channel - 160 area to 118 area. But, aside from channel centre around 137/139, (and apart from the fact there have been many trendlines running all though it) there have been two other major "cross channel" lines that have contained price in all that time - shown in red and green. After it broke over the green line in April, it smashed into top channel resistance. And since that time, for four months, it's been trying to get out of this narrow price range. Now, it's kind of hard knowing EXACTLY where the green line should sit, but it sure looks like we're sitting just above it right now. And that rapid move up last week was essentially trying to push it back over the line. But, of course, it's since fallen back.


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As to whether it becomes bullish shortly or not will very much depend on UJ.

UJ dropped to support at 96.2 and 95.8 last week. But in the process it got itself trapped between support and resistance. The problem is that it's going to have a hard time getting over that resistance, now at 96.9. Even if it gets back there, it has to get over 97.5.

Likewise with GJ, if it turns north about here, it has to recover 149.6, 150.3 and 150.6.

If UJ in particular can get really bullish and we can break over 150.6 ish, we'll head up a fair way. If not, then that green line could end up becoming resistance in coming days. Early next week is make or break.
  • #8,426
  • Aug 10, 2013 12:48am Aug 10, 2013 12:48am
I have made a mistake in my previews chart. this is my new counting and plan for next week. I expect to see strength in USD next week
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  • #8,427
  • Aug 10, 2013 3:18am Aug 10, 2013 3:18am
hello all,

i have been remiss about posting to this thread... I will try and be more active here going fwd

Im looking for 140-ish on this pair (swing trade), been short for a while, long before she started going down... averaged in my entries and now sitting on a nice pile of pips

i'll post some charts this weekend with my view on this pair

best of luck
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,428
  • Aug 10, 2013 3:22am Aug 10, 2013 3:22am
Quoting msniper
I have made a mistake in my previews chart. this is my new counting and plan for next week. I expect to see strength in USD next week {image} {image}

hey sniper,

if im not wrong, you are super bearish on EJ (over at EYI), looking for several hundred pips of downside...

then how come you are so bullish on GJ?

(if i confused you with someone else, i apologize)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,429
  • Aug 10, 2013 4:34am Aug 10, 2013 4:34am
In the event of a big drop, 147.6 may not hold. The support for that price point has already been tested , firstly at 147.2 and just last week. It has little to do with price levels, nor is it a straight linear trend line.
  • #8,430
  • Aug 10, 2013 10:07am Aug 10, 2013 10:07am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} hey sniper, if im not wrong, you are super bearish on EJ (over at EYI), looking for several hundred pips of downside... then how come you are so bullish on GJ? (if i confused you with someone else, i apologize)
Yes its me the bearish 1000pip guy. But if u notice I closed my short with 200+pips and I said there might be a change in my plan. But after DB deleted my post I decided not to post in his thread. And honestly I am GJ fan more than EJ. I expect jpy pairs to go through a bullidh wave next weak with USD leading.

We r in the last bearish wave and a bullish wave will start any time after we make a lower low. Keep watch for a divergence
  • #8,431
  • Aug 10, 2013 11:15am Aug 10, 2013 11:15am
i still see that potential head and shoulders continuation pattern on the daily and the target is 144 which may produce a sell signal on the monthly chartt that may be damaging..you may get a countertrend rally to test the neck line and if that support break fails i see 140 to 141...at that point there may be a more meaningful rally...one step at a time we need to see if the head and shoulders confirms or not..

warmest regards

travis
  • #8,432
  • Aug 10, 2013 2:14pm Aug 10, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I agree. Come back guys, we need you. And I could use some motivation to say the least (you have no idea what kind of hell I've been through lately, and that is not in reference to just trading). I have fallen down now about 700,000 times and it's getting progressively harder to stand up. I'm afraid this could be my last straw.
Hey my dear Smash ,...

all of us are fighting every day and every day we feel sometimes upset ( so hold on and everything will be ok) That is a thing which you need to get to your blood. The second thing is your trading ( as i have dedicated from your post) . If you dont want you dont need to read this one but i will tell ya my story . I have fallen not 700 000 but 7 000 000x ,... really i promise. But im very happy for that because if i would fell down i would know some traders . Each month i have had deposited my account with at least 200 euro. For some one little cash but for me big cash : ) and each month i get MC ( 9 MC in a row guys really). But after all i reallized that IM THE BIGGEST MISTAKE.

Many traders told me that they cant find any mistake about analyzis or something like that ( please note that im not telling that i ve got a cristal ball) but each of them told me that im behaving like Warren Buffet , Bill Gates ,.... in simply words like huge investor of the market. YES ,... my MoneyManagment was totaly wrong . And believe me or not it is not about

  1. TP , SL , profit protection or trailing stop.

It was , is and always will be about you. The only thing was that i have done is that i have lovered my volumes of trades . From 0.2 lots to 0.02 lots, And believe or not everything CHANGED . My account survived till now but i have made a research that my strategy in trading is totaly bad ! and generaly 98% of my whole trading style is BAD. And how do i knew it ? None of my analyzis was in green pips. After that i have totaly changed everything and now (about 2 years im recovering from my MCs and become profitable).

Start watching my dear friend ! And you will become a good trader.

Many green pips guys
  • #8,433
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:23pm Aug 10, 2013 9:23pm
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  • #8,434
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:26pm Aug 10, 2013 9:26pm
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  • #8,435
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:29pm Aug 10, 2013 9:29pm
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  • #8,436
  • Aug 10, 2013 11:38pm Aug 10, 2013 11:38pm
Hi patience

is that the correlation graph you have ?
Be the change that you want to change
  • #8,437
  • Aug 11, 2013 12:03am Aug 11, 2013 12:03am
Quoting msniper
{quote} Yes its me the bearish 1000pip guy. But if u notice I closed my short with 200+pips and I said there might be a change in my plan. But after DB deleted my post I decided not to post in his thread. And honestly I am GJ fan more than EJ. I expect jpy pairs to go through a bullidh wave next weak with USD leading. We r in the last bearish wave and a bullish wave will start any time after we make a lower low. Keep watch for a divergence
Hey MS
Dunno if you know this, but DB will no longer be posting on EYI since late last week, since he has gone commercial (per FF rules, commercial members cant post on regular threads)... that guy and I disagreed on most things... I guess I am too new to FF to say that I will miss him... I hope you will continue to post your analysis there... it is a good thread, but sadly he chased a lot of good traders away with his constant bantering...

Im still unclear about your rationale... you are saying 1000 pip drop for EJ (I note that you closed out your short already) and a bounce before that, i get it, but how come your analysis is so different for GJ?

Or, are you saying that they both bounce next week, and then more downside?

(ftr, I have been in the "1000 pip drop" camp since June, it caused a lot of beef with DB!; though, I don't see 1000 pips anymore, prolly down to 123-ish for EJ, and 140-ish for GJ)

cheers
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,438
  • Aug 11, 2013 12:07am Aug 11, 2013 12:07am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I agree. Come back guys, we need you. And I could use some motivation to say the least (you have no idea what kind of hell I've been through lately, and that is not in reference to just trading). I have fallen down now about 700,000 times and it's getting progressively harder to stand up. I'm afraid this could be my last straw.
at my high school, in the gym, there was a poster which said:
"it doesn't matter how much dog is in the fight, what matters is how much fight is in the dawg"
(our football team was the bulldogs)

it doesn't matter how many times you fall down
what matters is how many times you can get back up
that is what makes you a better man (or woman)...
which makes you better in every aspect of your life (including trading)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,439
  • Aug 11, 2013 10:23am Aug 11, 2013 10:23am
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...r-8755957.html

Does this means we will see a drop in our pair ?
  • #8,440
  • Aug 11, 2013 10:51am Aug 11, 2013 10:51am
my view is that it depends...it may be priced in already or it may not be.....im bearish with respect to the price action but that may change..also, depends on japan as well....i believe their initial gdp is coming out abit later so that should be interesting...if you look on the weekly ..it looks like a distribution top as it really already had a big move up and a 50 percent correction would be quite normal however, if the 147 to 148 level holds that would be quite bullish and would be willing to reverse my position....quite interesting it is starting the week at this level ....rested and refreshed...this should be a very interesting week with some important gbp and jpy data this week....

warmest regards to all
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