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AUD/USD

  • #62,041
  • Aug 8, 2013 4:19pm Aug 8, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Look on the calendar: RBA Monetary Policy Statements. Any word of potential further cuts, this mug will fall like a stone.
Between that and the China data it will get pretty interesting in 4 hours.
  • #62,042
  • Aug 8, 2013 4:24pm Aug 8, 2013 4:24pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Between that and the China data it will get pretty interesting in 4 hours.
But the China data does matter much in my opinion if it has no impact overall on Aussie's economy. Just being swept in a broad generalization is iffy to me. Also, we can talk about import/export increases, but what does that matter when their trade balance dropped 10 billion?

A trade balance is the measure of imports and exports, so how can it drop 10B? I assume the imports doubled exports, but isn't that bad? It smells fishy to me. Something in the data sounds a little rigged
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,043
  • Aug 8, 2013 4:52pm Aug 8, 2013 4:52pm
I duno about you guys but investing in AU resources seem like good play. China is not dieing and AUD is now much lower, and stock prices lower. Swing up about 50% seem quite warranted.

yes, I am fully loaded with resources .
  • #62,044
  • Aug 8, 2013 6:21pm Aug 8, 2013 6:21pm
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps8ee1b0ff.jpg

Levels nicely done, currently resisted by .9130.
China data today will be interesting.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #62,045
  • Aug 8, 2013 6:48pm Aug 8, 2013 6:48pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} But the China data does matter much in my opinion if it has no impact overall on Aussie's economy. Just being swept in a broad generalization is iffy to me. Also, we can talk about import/export increases, but what does that matter when their trade balance dropped 10 billion? A trade balance is the measure of imports and exports, so how can it drop 10B? I assume the imports doubled exports, but isn't that bad? It smells fishy to me. Something in the data sounds a little rigged
Yeah something smells fishy. The employment numbers are also a puzzle and I am trying to get a handle on how the numbers are derived. It seems that the exercise includes a telephone survey of 4,000 each month with responses factored in to the result. Those indicating they worked more than 1 hour a week are regarded as employed (must distort numbers for "Employed Persons" and "Participation Rate") and only those indicating they are looking for work as being unemployed. This surely must make the result a subjective one and open to manipulation.

Another development since the GFC that has changed the labour market in Australia and is not easily understood by the unemployment numbers is the the huge shift towards part time work. As a result the Australian workforce in becoming underemployed and not covered by the provisions and protections of full-time employment which is a more tentative situation not evident in the cursory look at employment / unemployment numbers.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]&num=&view=
  • #62,046
  • Aug 8, 2013 6:53pm Aug 8, 2013 6:53pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Yeah something smells fishy. The employment numbers are also a puzzle and I am trying to get a handle on how the numbers are derived. It seems that the exercise includes a telephone survey of 4,000 each month with responses factored in to the result. Those indicating they worked more than 1 hour a week are regarded as employed (must distort numbers for "Employed Persons" and "Participation Rate") and only those indicating they are looking for work as being unemployed. This surely must make the result a subjective one and open to manipulation....
Yes, I have read that Australia counts five hours per week as full employment. I am just suspect of the china data, and I just find it hard to say well china's numbers "look" good, therefore Australia looks promising. Clearly not when 10k jobs was just hacked off.

If you take into account last month job data revised down, in 3 months they only added 500k jobs. The economy is bloomin' recovering!

Also, I think more red pips for Aussie. I think like the BoJ, the RBA will want to keep the A-dollar in check. The economy is sluggish, and I wouldn't be surprised if Stevens mentions room for more cuts since the weaker currency will spur growth. There is simply no demand in Oz-land
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,047
  • Aug 8, 2013 7:33pm Aug 8, 2013 7:33pm
Quoting samirs
9138 line in the sand
The RBA statement may lead AU back to 0.9041 area and then it should still back to test 0.9136 with a possibility to break it this time or early next week, and then test 0.9300 to finish this correction I guess. However, if 4H closed below 0.90104, then AU's correction is finished in my opinion.
  • #62,048
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:10pm Aug 8, 2013 8:10pm
Australia has most amount of gold in past 2 years...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 38 KB
  • #62,049
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:33pm Aug 8, 2013 8:33pm
CNY data was not very good.
  • #62,050
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:35pm Aug 8, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting Mozzy
CNY data was not very good.
ya i am not sure how to trade this..
hmm..
RBA cut AU GDP forecast to 2.25%
  • #62,051
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:36pm Aug 8, 2013 8:36pm
Quoting Mozzy
CNY data was not very good.
Neither was the last bit. It may just be shaking orders, but if it goes up again I'm going to put on my denim cutoffs and hulk out
Attached Image
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,052
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:37pm Aug 8, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Neither was the last bit. It may just be shaking orders, but if it goes up again I'm going to put on my denim cutoffs and hulk out {image}
Hahahaaa, Hulk MAD!
  • #62,053
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:38pm Aug 8, 2013 8:38pm
I am bear for sure relex hulk
Sean Patel
  • #62,054
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:39pm Aug 8, 2013 8:39pm
Quoted from bottom of page 58 of economic outlook:

"The path of the exchange rate is an important source
of uncertainty for the forecasts. As the terms of trade
decline and mining investment falls back from its
high level, the exchange rate could depreciate
further. This would help to assist with the required
rebalancing of growth in the domestic economy, a
role the exchange rate has frequently played over
the past three decades and in particular during
the boom in mining investment over recent years.
A significant depreciation can have a substantial
impact on aggregate economic activity. There is a
wide range of empirical estimates of such effects,
which in part depend on whether the depreciation
is accompanied by a decline in the terms of trade.
Central estimates from this range suggest that
a 10 per cent depreciation of the exchange rate
stimulates GDP growth by ½–1 percentage point
over a period of two years or so. Further depreciation
of a similar magnitude to that already experienced to
date could, for example, deliver above-trend growth
sooner than currently forecast."
  • #62,055
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:40pm Aug 8, 2013 8:40pm
Quoting Mozzy
{quote} Hahahaaa, Hulk MAD!
Lol I mean it's ridiculous. It doesn't matter what the data or sentiment is. RBA is like growth is deteriorating and Douche-a bank is like let's jack this shit up
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,056
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:42pm Aug 8, 2013 8:42pm
And is still going up, i guess the election is the driving force here
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,057
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:42pm Aug 8, 2013 8:42pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-08-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 196 KB


its not easy it need to go .8850

happy trading
Sean Patel
  • #62,058
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:43pm Aug 8, 2013 8:43pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Lol I mean it's ridiculous. It doesn't matter what the data or sentiment is. RBA is like growth is deteriorating and Douche-a bank is like let's jack this shit up
Jack this shit up alright, look at it go!
  • #62,059
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:44pm Aug 8, 2013 8:44pm
Taking a big risk, still longing tp at 0.92
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,060
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:47pm Aug 8, 2013 8:47pm
I don't lose any trade my friend this is a 2% of my account I can cover by scalping


but I want to be right

heheeheh

happy trading
Sean Patel
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