Similarity: A Practical Approach

Demo Longs all closed. +71.4
Trigger is ZZTop signal on H4/H1/m15 charts. Thiscan go higher.
Can't be asked trying to manage exits around the 3380 mark.
Still looking for 3414-3420. Pending Sells are in place.

Ouch shorts underwater lol. On hindsight everything said long...geez what was I thinking

If it's demo... see if you can hold on until 3414.
Try and understand what this would mean with real money. In which case.... if you're underwater now, why not enter a long at the next ZZBottom opportunity.
As the longs gain, it fixes your current loss to say ($1000) Once you crystalise your gain on the longs (ie. exit) immediately go short when the signal arrives --- i just gave some prices for possible entry points) and when the shorts start to gain, you've effectively hedged the underwater effect with the profits from the underwater trades. This was the kind of experiment I did with my demo.

Always great advice from you V! I should be able to hold though.... position sizes are small enough, just didn't expect ZZ would repaint having shown on 15m,1h and 4h lol "tunnel vision"

Thanks for all the post. It facinates me that even when your daily prediction is not correct, you still managed to make the day profitable and days that were rit, you hacked in alot of pips. How do youy enter trades precisely?

Hi Easy123,

That was my point in one of my posts today. The projection is just that... projection. When I first started it, I actually placed the trade at Daily Open and then took whatever the result was, profit or loss. But the more you do it, you realise that in effect you are behaving like a Day Trader.... that is, you are using intraday timeframes, no question.....

So the 15M and 1H must guide your entry and exit.... also no question. The "Day Projection" may provide a bias to my trades.... eg. if Day is UP, I am looking for dips to go long. The day could actually post a HIGH at 2:30PM London time.... 1 hour after NYC open.... then crash. But if I had made 50 pips on that long from the daily open (Midnight or 11pm previous day).... I am still in profit. If I saw a short signal after that HIGH and took it.... I really don't care if it took the price to below the daily close (thus disproving the Daily Projection of UP) because if I am short (triggered by the 15M or whatever timeframe chart)..... then I am winning.

Each timeframe is a 2 dimensional trading landscape. You must learn to be 3 dimensional about this stuff to reconcile the conflicting signals. Hence why Similarity/Dissimilarity is an important concept. When you find SIMILARITY you can be more confident of the ensuing direction of price.

Don't worry... this has happened to me. My trading statement is there for all to see.
But you have to trust that if the ZZTop has formed.... IT MUST BE A BOTTOM NEXT.

Now I have 3414-3420. Current price is at 3393. You could LONG.
Personally I wont... NOW (17:16PM) .... i just noticed that 15M posted a ZZT inside the BB... you know what that means.... Black Hole and price MUST RETURN THERE very quickly. So there could be some shorts now... probably profit taking. Target? Top of DS Zone on 15M at 3351 or the bottom of the unborn DS at 3369. That's still 30-40 pips.

Try and find the gaps where price is attracted to go. But the amount of DS boxes forming on the 15M tells me she's going higher.

That sound good, however is not so easy emotionaly

What if you exit expecting reversal and ZZTop rewrites again itself as it was several times yesterday and today? It must retrace deeper somewhere, but where is that sure point? When these are solvet, hedging is a brillant way of solving mistakes
There is also another way, for these under emotions. Bulish outlook, dissimlarity and a dip.. anter and ride till you are in profit with all your trades including the hedged one (or to nearest ZZTop ). There are many traders here, let's discuss how to handle that. Let it be a part of the system.

If you have managed to follow this system and the discussion on principles then you will know that:

1. DS Zones can be price attracting or price repelling
2. DS Zones that have not materialised yet can also be price attracting or price repelling

If you don't understand this... then you will be asking "WHERE IS THE SURE POINT FOR A RETRACE?" "WHERE IS THE POINT TO EXIT?" "WHY IS IT REPAINTING?"

You must understand first that you don't just jump in because an indicator gives you a signal. If you try and learn to behave that way and you are a beginner then... I'm sorry to say, you deserve to lose your account.

Indicators do not and never will provide 100% accuracy. Shit, we're struggling with Ralome's indicator at 60% accuracy and Eurusdd's BBSTOCH method which is only 10% more efficient than the original CI method.

If you are emotional about your trading then you must not trade until you learn to accept it. Best way to learn.... set aside $100, $500 or $1000 and start thinking that you have lost it all. There is no other way to do this. If you are worried that you will lose that money then you wont trust ANY SYSTEM and you will start doing contra actions to your trade.

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What if you exit expecting reversal and ZZTop rewrites again itself as it was several times yesterday and today?

Did you actually analyse my trade today? Did you actually try and work out the Daily Projection yourself? Did you read the post where I mentioned how I tackle the EURUSD market every morning where I look at Daily Projection and then go lower into the timeframes?

If you are reading one page of this thread and not digesting the background to this and posting this kind of question then you've missed 75% of the content.

This question above..... were you Long?
If no... then don't trade.
If yes.... then why are you exiting? Why would you expect a reversal... this system doesn't expect a "reversal". Each timeframe has its own "reversal"... so what is a reversal? We label swing tops and swing bottoms. You can have swings in any trending market so I don't really care if its a reversal or not.

I'll take a live analysis right now: 18:19 GMT.

4H
Before today, ZZBottom. It's just created a ZZTOP.... this signals that price COULD GO DOWN TO FORM A ZZBOTTOM. No trade signal I just expect price to start creating scenarios for a bear bar.

Things to notice: 300EMA (green line) is below price. Therefore default behaviour is Long. Why would you want to short against a 4H bar? That means 1 trade would have to last at least 4 hours? Really? The BBSTOCH is in 80/100 mode... it's long, no shorts that I can see..... but there's HIGH POTENTIAL, yes.

EDIT:
You may notice that I have pending sells. 2 @ 3414 from a previous analysis. 2 below which is an experiment... something that Taypot does (cheers Tay!)
This does not mean a "reversal" to me. The 4H trend is bullish. A reversal is not a retracement.... a reversal is a change in trend. I don't think we will have a change in trend.... a retracement to create a ZZBOTtom yes, but not to become a bearish trend.... not until we cross the 300EMA (see Daily Projection Method).


1H
Last ZZBottom is ages away. Every Purple and Orange Dot Top is a repainted ZZTOP..... so why wouldn't you have taken a long at each ZZBOT if your 4hour timeframe says it's still bullish? Why not? That means taking a Long and leaving it open for at least 1 hour. Why not?

Yesterday a major zone was cleared to the upside. That is, price went to the bottom of the zone and then cleared it at the top. That means the price was rejected by bulls and price went higher. So it's going higher. Why didn't you go Long at that price of 1.3337? BTW... I traded right at that price when a ZZTOP was formed... I went long.... why did i do that? Shouldn't I be expecting a ZZBottom? Yes... but the above reasons made me think there is a HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER PRICES. Besides 4H told me it's going higher. Target 1.3414


15M
Price above 300EMA. DS Zones getting created below price, providing support. If price were to "reverse" now... it should not go lower than those 2 zones in the chart. That means 1.33007 is defended by 1.3312 all the way to 1.3350...
What could you do? Short and target those prices? Then go long? Sure why not? What if you waited until ZZTOP forms and price crosses BBMID? At the moment, price doesn't look like it wants to approach the middle of the Bollinger Band... it looks like higher. When it does cross the MID, then you may want to take those shorts. But I personally wouldn't because the Ralome indicator says that a new DS Zone has just been triggered.... Green bar at the bottom.... can you tell which BAR created it? It's that big bullish candle with a bottom of 1.33696 (blue line).... so that has to be a support line.....
It's all bullish to me.

If I'm bullish on 15M and bearish on 4H... why don't you take two trades and close them based on their own timeframe and swings within that tf?
So LONG on 15M and target the 3414 and take a short on the 4H and keep going short until you reach 3414 (my current maximum is 6 positions).
Exit the 15M if you reach 1.3400 or 20 pips. You could work out the size of the Long Lots and make sure you cover this equivalent in Shorts.... so you are not "losing"

Believe me, I've not traded like this before. These are all by-products of learning this system/principle. So take heart that anyone can learn to do this.

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In any of these 3 analysis that I've taken 15-20 min to review, screenshot and type out... .you couldn't form a trading plan? Come on! This is what traders do... look for a gap, a target and go for it. If you lose you lose if you win you win.... It's unemotional. If you are afraid to part with money that you should always think you have lost already you shouldn't do this game. It will hurt more.

Okay! Done! Everyone have a great trading day tomorrow.... see you all next week!

Green pips to everyone!

Frankly the only part missing now about ZZology is nailing the turn. I think for trend riding ZZology and couple it with 123 waves it is rather solid. Generally we know price will return to ZZ points be they valid or not, so technically you're fine as long as you can hold. But this is of course easier said than done. To be very honest my 3 ZZs where not aligned at first and yesterday's crazy repainting made me cautious but when they painted a top together I thought that was it

Edit: Now notice that my behaviour was completely amaturish. But I cite bowel irritation in my defense. Seriously do not try to nail turns like what I'm doing. I'm trying to experiment though my techniques lack finess. I am trying to recover my equity but I am also making the pips to pay for my umm experiments and this is something I'd never been able to do

Watch 15M now.
if price crosses BBMid, look for reaction at the low of the DS candle 3369.6
if it makes a ZZBOT,go long.

Thank you vlday. That was a comprehensive thought process and I understand it a lot better now. I think we should have more of such analysis than sticking to rigid rules.
I see you are trading spots, are you still using the same strategy for binaries using projections?

Thanks Vlady for deep insight. I'm still reading some posts on both threads and putting missing puzzles together. Learning is a proces which never ends.
Obviously I mistaken terminology since I meant reversals on abc level, so not major trend reversal, but subtrend-one, so called swing. Sorry for confusion.
I have to master the system and I'm trying to catch some knowledge here and there. This hedging issue is something what was somewhere in my head for some 2 years and it was awaken by EURUSDD's hint. What you wrote makes sense and I'll probably go for trying that somehow. humble thanks.

Hey Guys,

Firstly, I wanna say that I really appreciate your support and welcome any insight criticism, or alternative thinking. My posts lately may have come across as a bit harsh around the edges. It's purely fatigue from work getting in the way of this which is way more fun!

Secondly, I owe everything to Eurusdd for this "system" / principle and Ralome for the indicator. It's transformed my normal trading. And it's galvanised all my previous experience into a method. kind of like a cooking style. It's not important to get the exact recipe right but the spirit of the ingredients and the cooking process. Then add your own flair in it.

Tomorrow I'm seeing an UP Day. but look out for any sudden moves. 1.34 will happen.

Just curious looking at your charts why is the 15m stoch on 75,1,1 isn't that for 1H and whats this mwstoch you're using?

Work gets in the way of fun all the time lol

Ok are my charts after clearing up the clutter. I'm probably gonna get it messed up again though lol.

4H 1H 15M
TOP
EMA=1 EMA=1 EMA=1
ZZ=24 ZZ=24 ZZ=24
EMA=300 EMA=300 EMA=300
BB=24,2 BB=24,2 BB=24,2
MID
STOCH=19,1,1 STOCH=75,1,1 STOCH=300,1,1
BB=24,2 BB=24,2 BB=24,2
BOTTOM
r-v1=300/24 r-v1=300/24 r-v1=300/24

SUGGESTIONS/ADVICE/CRTICISM greatly apperciated

On a train so must be brief.

MID
Settings can be whatever you want so you can see clearly. Does not affect StochDiff indicator.

Everything else is fine. I'll try and get back later.

EDIT:
The StochBB I am using was a combined indicator someone posted. check the Thread Attachments.

Ok my attempt at this. Learning and developing a system is one thing learning to think like a trader is another.

Blue fonts are factors that align and support out look, Red fonts are cautionary points, Black fonts neutral

4H, 1H and 15 PA are all above 300 EMA

DS between 1EMA and stoch on 4H, stoch has to follow price upwards
BHZZT (Black hole ZZ top) on 4H, price attractor

DS between 1EMA and stoch on 1H, stoch has to follow price upwards
BHZZT on 1H, price attractor

Valid ZZB on 15 min with PA crossing mid BB.
ZZT due after ZZB

UBZ(Unborn zone) just formed and could be support
PA has bounce of DS zone once, second test went halfway into zone.

Bias is UP for now with longer term expectations for short.

Edit: Push has gone deeper into zone and created an invalid ZZ within.What will this mean?

Edit: Zone cleared...this is where I'm not so sure how price wants to move

EDIT: Should have held yesterday's shorts........well....price of learning

EDIT: Gee zone clearing. Guess I'm always right...just the wrong day lol

In my previous amature analysis I mentioned about price pushing into a zone and what it means. I'm guess its weaking support and increasing the probality of that zone being a traget to be taken out. I could be wrong as usual lol but we gotta start learning properly somewhere. Can't expect to be a good trader just like that.

vlady,

I have made some very minor adjustments to the previously posted version of Stoch with BB, all parameters are now externals and the Stoch settings are corrected as well (the were hard coded as x,3,1 rather than x,1,1)

I am still struggling with the "Daily Projection" - if today's Open > Close (ie red candle), then tomorrow should be another down day if tomorrow's open is situated how or where? Lower than today's open?

Cheers / Mop