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AUD/USD

  • #62,021
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:22am Aug 8, 2013 10:22am
I said it some days ago that a reversal is imminent. But think a stalemate is imminent now
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #62,022
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:25am Aug 8, 2013 10:25am
Time to kill a bear.
  • #62,023
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:26am Aug 8, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Yuchen
{quote} I am still waiting for a back test for 0.9040 area and stop at 0.8980, tp 0.9280 if 4H still shows the uptrend in this short-term.
Most of the fundamentals are screwed up, not to mention commodities too, supply greater than demand, price went up. I will wait until aud went up to 0.925 or higher to short. I dont want to get into this vortex
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,024
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:28am Aug 8, 2013 10:28am
Descending Wedge target was hit today as AUD/USD climbed above .91

Looking ahead, the pair has head a nice rally, during that rally a bullish trendline (Something we haven't seen in a while ) had formed and had broken.

Selling opportunities exist around .9170-.9190 as the daily bearish trend looks as if it is going to be tested.

If the bearish trend is indeed still intact, I wouldn't be surprised if we close the week below .91...the other possibility if the bears are still there is that it will linger around .91-.92 until next week and slowly build up downward pressure over the next few days.

Safe Trading.
  • #62,025
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:28am Aug 8, 2013 10:28am
high yield pairs like this . once they take off.barely retrace-intraday
  • #62,026
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:28am Aug 8, 2013 10:28am
Quoting bskwak1124
{quote} Most of the fundamentals are screwed up, not to mention commodities too, supply greater than demand, price went up. I will wait until aud went up to 0.925 or higher to short. I dont want to get into this vortex
how do you know supply greater than demand?
  • #62,027
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:32am Aug 8, 2013 10:32am
I just cant short this aud under parity . only above 1.0500
  • #62,028
  • Edited 11:39am Aug 8, 2013 10:34am | Edited 11:39am
After locking some profit with my long trade, I am long again from 0.91264
  • #62,029
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:38am Aug 8, 2013 10:38am
Quoting bskwak1124
{quote} Most of the fundamentals are screwed up, not to mention commodities too, supply greater than demand, price went up. I will wait until aud went up to 0.925 or higher to short. I dont want to get into this vortex
If this time it can goes to 0.9300 area, it might be a broken and goes to 0.9660. So you could wait for it test 0.9300 2-3 times and when you see it drop back to 0.92XX area with broken 4H uptrend, then you can start to short it, that would be safer i guess
  • #62,030
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:41am Aug 8, 2013 10:41am
Quoting yaphets
{quote} how do you know supply greater than demand?
I meant commodities, sorry for the confusion. I play commodities, such as natural gas. Today data for nat gas is higher than previous and forecast. Usually, from Econ 101, it is natural for nat gas price to drop. However, due to people's perspective, the weather will start to get warmer, so it shoot up. I believe it is the same as Aud, election is coming, there is rumors that there will be reform in mining area. So i believe before election 0.93 will be hit (the high in 2010, where the mining was at full speed), after that is all depend on the speech they give, whether be dovish or hawkish, that will determine the price movement. But RBA prefer kangaroo be around 0.8 to 0.85.
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,031
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:43am Aug 8, 2013 10:43am
Quoting Yuchen
{quote} If this time it can goes to 0.9300 area, it might be a broken and goes to 0.9660. So you could wait for it test 0.9300 2-3 times and when you see it drop back to 0.92XX area with broken 4H uptrend, then you can start to short it, that would be safer i guess
True from my trend line, if 0.93 is broken, 0.9550. But i dont think it will hit before election. During election week, we can see another silence or no movement during the week.
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,032
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:55am Aug 8, 2013 10:55am
Long at 0.911 tp at 0.9200
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #62,033
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:28am Aug 8, 2013 11:28am
Approaching 61.8 fib level of recent downtrend - coincides where you guys where all talking about shorts.

Might not be a bad play for a 4hr position or so.
  • #62,034
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:35am Aug 8, 2013 11:35am
reach another reaction leg...
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  • #62,035
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:54pm Aug 8, 2013 12:54pm
closed my long and stand aside for now. waiting market to build an 'action' move..
  • #62,036
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:06pm Aug 8, 2013 3:06pm
Short is starting to look attractive here at 9107
  • #62,037
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:06pm Aug 8, 2013 3:06pm
Looking to retrace to .9075. Current short, .91269 TP at the point of retrace.

I think leading into friday, the RBA will down talk AUD with tonights statements. It prefers a lower currency
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-08-TOS_CHARTS.png Size: 155 KB
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,038
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:24pm Aug 8, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Looking to retrace to .9075. Current short, .91269 TP at the point of retrace. I think leading into friday, the RBA will down talk AUD with tonights statements. It prefers a lower currency {image}
I didnt see they were releasing any statements, where did you see that?
  • #62,039
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:26pm Aug 8, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} I didnt see they were releasing any statements, where did you see that?
Look on the calendar: RBA Monetary Policy Statements. Any word of potential further cuts, this mug will fall like a stone.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #62,040
  • Aug 8, 2013 4:07pm Aug 8, 2013 4:07pm
China's crude imports in July soared to a record high of 6.15 million barrels per day (bpd), up 14 percent from a month ago.
This means that good data from china is very likely to show up AGAIN
I'm so sorry if I alienate some of you
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