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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #127,161
  • Aug 7, 2013 6:07pm Aug 7, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting lenrod
Hi guys, what do you think of EUR/JPY? Daily candle just closed braking through the TL, 130 BRN and PPZ which is both middle of the box and recent LCS. I'm looking for bearish PA or signature at TL or LCS on lower TF, FTA would be the low at the 128 area. Any comments are welcome {image}
Be careful with that FTA. I would Look at those 6 bar lows lined up. They are marked on my chart as the bottom of a consolidation box. I'm looking for the retest of the 130, but then I will definitely exit at these lows. If price breakes it through I will try to re-enter at the same spot.
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It's all psychology...
  • #127,162
  • Aug 7, 2013 6:25pm Aug 7, 2013 6:25pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Be careful with that FTA. I would Look at those 6 bar lows lined up. They are marked on my chart as the bottom of a consolidation box. I'm looking for the retest of the 130, but then I will definitely exit at these lows. If price breakes it through I will try to re-enter at the same spot. {image}
Thanks for the advice
IMO since it closed below them that area could have turned into resistance and shouldn't be a problem, btw I'll be careful there
  • #127,163
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:50pm Aug 7, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Hi! As far as I know this MACD Divergence would weaken our long trade. When price is going up and we see a bearish divergence on MACD that might indicate that price will reserve. Personally I'm missing a retest of that area we just broke through. (1.6865) The 1.7 was not tested yet. I would see a "right to the pip" retest at least. Cheers, Stephen
Hi LT,

Thanks for that response.

I think my understanding of divergence is a bit off. As the one I've marked is bearish, but the current trend is bullish, it would be better if that bar had been a BEEB indicating that it's going to possibly reverse? I clearly need to read up on this a lot more (just testing it out at the moment)

The 1.7000 was tested quite a few times, but not recently. It was way back in 2010. How far back do we look for testing of a S/R line or PPZ/round number for it to be valid?

Cheers,
JJ
  • #127,164
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:06pm Aug 7, 2013 9:06pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Hi Haadiyah! - Abbreviations: 2nd post of this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=435416 - Bars at good location -> Stephen
Thanks Stephen for a ton of great advice, and pointing me toward that thread. I am going to do -exactly- what you suggest. Pick one thing at a time and go back through the charts and learn to recognize each--including all those forms of confluence. I think that's my biggest weakness right now. I need to get better at recognizing ppz, divergence, and using fib levels - so that I can apply it to understanding the -good- price pattern setups. And save the good charts (and some of the bad ones!) just as you suggest. And thanks for more insight into swing highs and swing lows. I'm starting to finally grasp the idea that price patterns themselves are not setups--they are a sign to pull the trigger. The setup is the context and the understanding of what the market is doing. In a sense, finding a price pattern at a probable swing point is itself a sign you've found a swing--and at least with trend reversal trades, that's the real goal. Not to find price patterns--really we're using price patterns to find trend reversals and breakouts. Probably funny to you to read my newbie revelations.
  • #127,165
  • Aug 8, 2013 1:27am Aug 8, 2013 1:27am
Quoting lenrod
{quote} IMO this one is not a good setup, we want to see BUOB at swing lows, this one is at a swing high. Than the BUOB didn't close above the englufed bar high, I can't see any confluence and also the divergence suggests me to look for a bearish pattern. I'd wait to see what price does and then look for a better setup
You're right after another good look. Makes much more sense

Cheers!
  • #127,166
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:07am Aug 8, 2013 2:07am
Quoting Jjms
{quote} Hi LT, Thanks for that response. I think my understanding of divergence is a bit off. As the one I've marked is bearish, but the current trend is bullish, it would be better if that bar had been a BEEB indicating that it's going to possibly reverse? I clearly need to read up on this a lot more (just testing it out at the moment) The 1.7000 was tested quite a few times, but not recently. It was way back in 2010. How far back do we look for testing of a S/R line or PPZ/round number for it to be valid? Cheers, JJ
Hi Jjms.
Indeed a nice BEOB would have fit into my picture much more.
About PPZs - they are valid. I'm at work atm, but If I get home and I don't forget Ill get you a chart. Lately price just broke through a major area into free space, which wasn't tested like for 2 years. Guess what - weekly PPZs still do their job, price still stalls at these levels. So even if a level is old its still there. I mean if you were an investor thinking where to get out from short where would you? In the blue? Or at these clear defined 2 years old levels?

Cheers,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #127,167
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:13am Aug 8, 2013 2:13am
Quoting Haadiyah
{quote} Thanks Stephen for a ton of great advice, and pointing me toward that thread. I am going to do -exactly- what you suggest. Pick one thing at a time and go back through the charts and learn to recognize each--including all those forms of confluence. I think that's my biggest weakness right now. I need to get better at recognizing ppz, divergence, and using fib levels - so that I can apply it to understanding the -good- price pattern setups. And save the good charts (and some of the bad ones!) just as you suggest. And thanks for more insight...

That's the right attitude Only one step at the time but that step has to be 100%. I mean if you say "now I learn to trade pinbars, then im not trading jarroo and other stuff. Only pinbars.

Other thing I noticed. - People (Me Included ) are want to learn a system and demo it immediately. These are not the correct steps. I mean I might know that im looking for a PBT and CA/CB at the jarroo system and on the next day we are looking for a lower TF PA, but why do I want to trade until I dont know how a proper trade looks like. (With space, confluence etc.) Literally I tried to trade every single breakout and failed at most, only because I wanted to take the steps too fast.

1) Learn the system. 2) Look back in time and get a hang of it. 3) Test it in forex tester 4) Futuretest demo 5) Go live.

I wanted to skip steps 2 and 3...
Now im back to 1, and grounding my knowledge.

Cheers,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #127,168
  • Edited 5:16am Aug 8, 2013 2:41am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting dan89
{quote} Hey Pinbar, been reading your posts for a while since I started reading this thread. I cant remeber seeing you over on the PF ? Anyway just wondering how the trading is going now, are you trading profitably now and found a method that suits you, i noticed you use both j16 and Jarroo methods similar to me.

You can find some of my old posts on the PF, in Seeking Lights thread about the base system.
On the profitability question, I am starting to become more profitable recently, with looking at the bigger picture.

Yes, I am sort of combining HCR with the SFP and studying the order flow.
  • #127,169
  • Edited 6:34am Aug 8, 2013 5:47am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting lenrod
Hi guys, what do you think of EUR/JPY? Daily candle just closed braking through the TL, 130 BRN and PPZ which is both middle of the box and recent LCS. I'm looking for bearish PA or signature at TL or LCS on lower TF, FTA would be the low at the 128 area. Any comments are welcome {image}
Quick update. After the daily close I saw price going upwards quickly but had to go to bed, so I set my sell under the LCS. This morning I saw the order triggered and that price formed a BEOB on 1H TF off the level. I reduced my risk and moved the stop just above the 1H BEOB.
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  • #127,170
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:35am Aug 8, 2013 8:35am
Quoting Jjms
Hi Guys, What are peoples thoughts on this one? BUEB sitting on the 1.7000 VBRN (although would like it a bit lower?) It's been tested quite a few times, but not since 2010. It's engulfing 2 bars. Seems to be divergence (not very familiar with this as yet) but if correct adds confluence. With the recent trend. Possible buy limit close to the 23.6 fib (sitting right on there perfectly) or at the break of the BUEB for a more conservative approach? {image}
Hey Jj

Remember we want to look for BUOB s at swing lows. That buob is sitting at the very tip of a swing high. Buying the new high with a buob as a continuation is not wrong but is something I always think new traders should learn after learning BUOBs in the location james teaches.

So finding divergence in a case like this would be to support shorts not longs in the market

As for buying at the 23.6 that fib is not really relevant to this case either. That fib would be better used looking towards the % numbers as possible places to buy in an uptrend not really just on that BUOB.

Let me know if you understand what I mean about location of buobs and swing points


Best
Mike
  • #127,171
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:45am Aug 8, 2013 8:45am
Quoting Mav13
{quote} Hi turnip15, BAT means BAT indicator, hereīs link to Mikeīs post about this one. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post6772108 Mav
thanks Mav
  • #127,172
  • Aug 8, 2013 9:12am Aug 8, 2013 9:12am
just wait for the good areas to watch for PA. Keep it simple folks!
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  • #127,173
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:48am Aug 8, 2013 10:48am
Quoting lenrod
{quote} Quick update. After the daily close I saw price going upwards quickly but had to go to bed, so I set my sell under the LCS. This morning I saw the order triggered and that price formed a BEOB on 1H TF off the level. I reduced my risk and moved the stop just above the 1H BEOB. {image}
Why did you use PA as the entry in this trade?
H1 PA is not really a factor in this type of trade, the entry is a pure TT of the level.

Mixing these systems on the H1 tf will, IMHO not really do you any service.

I also did a similar thing and regret it, greatly.
You are better off using PA on the Higher TFs and at least the Daily TF because, PA on these levels will get you in too late and too close to the FTA.

The order flow is working against you.
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  • #127,174
  • Edited 11:08am Aug 8, 2013 10:50am | Edited 11:08am
I want to hear from Mike, the basics of what he learned from DS about the order flow.
Sure, PA is an expression of the OF but, I don't think it is as close to the bone, as it could be.

Excuse the rant but, I am really, really interested in what Mike learned from DS about the OF as, Mike obviously has it down but expresses it in terms we mere mortals can comprehend as in PA & other price patterns.

I still feel there is something closer to the bone than any of the above.
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  • #127,175
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:03am Aug 8, 2013 11:03am
Quoting Pinbar
I want to hear from Mike, the basics of what he learned from DS about the order flow. Sure, PA is an expression of the OF but, I don't think it is as close to the bone, as it could be. Excuse the rant but, I am really, really interested in what Mike learned from DS about the OF as, Mike obviously has it down but expresses it in terms we mere mortals can comprehend as in PA & other price patterns. I still feel there is something closer to the bone than any of the above.

Hey Steve

I really wouldn't want to sidetrack this thread with that stuff as it would take a lot of writings as I have had to do in the PF. Really though PA encompasses Orderflow topics and from my perspective and approach it's how I attack the charts. It's not necessary to have to go further than that to be profitable and keep things simple. I truly mean that. The way we approach our charts is all about orderflow or as I call it story.

For example just today and yesterday someone was asking me about the "big boys" and their role and some deeper OF concepts. Someone else chimed in about stuff and this sums up my deep belief

http://www.james16group.us/forums/im...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by ianhendry http://www.james16group.us/forums/im...post-right.png
I have to say that despite all the effort I put in to learn this concept I have found absolutely no practical application for making cash with it. Good PA bars in good locations make cash. Perhaps at some stage later in my career as my knowledge grows I will find an entry/exit method based on this concept but for now it eludes me.

My response
good PA bars in good locations take into account these concepts. That's why http://www.james16group.us/forums/im...es/biggrin.png


So yes OF is nice to learn and when I explain something about a situation you will see me pull in that into an analysis. Be it about swing points, space, momentum loss and those larger applications. But I prefer especially in this thread to keep things as simple as possible as I want new traders specifically too see how simplicity and it's real life applications from a technical stand point are all one needs

I suggest if you enjoy DS stuff to check out his material. He sent me a copy as a thank you and I loved his book. I think it's great knowledge to have

Hope that helps!
Mike
  • #127,176
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:14am Aug 8, 2013 11:14am
Hey Mike & Others,

I understand you are trying to keep things simple here. But if you think that newbies can just come in here and learn the to trade technicals with out following or understanding fundamentals , then i think they are going to be in trouble in the long run.

Folks, you cannot become a pure technical trader. there is no such thing, nor there is such a thing as pure fundamental trader. you cannot say i wont follow or figure out fundamentals because it hard. Yes it is hard , that's why this business is difficult.

So my suggestion to newbies is apart from following technicals you must understand the fundamentals of the instrument you are trading.

I will give you a simple example. Look at Nat gas every thursday , the stocks of natgas come out and just look how price moves , if you followed only technicals , you will get killed. But if you follow the news and are aware the news comes out , you can trade accordingly.

So please learn to figure out fundamentals of the instruments your are trading and combine that with PA and then see the results.
  • #127,177
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:19am Aug 8, 2013 11:19am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Steve I really wouldn't want to sidetrack this thread with that stuff as it would take a lot of writings as I have had to do in the PF. Really though PA encompasses Orderflow topics and from my perspective and approach it's how I attack the charts. It's not necessary to have to go further than that to be profitable and keep things simple. I truly mean that. The way we approach our charts is all about orderflow or as I call it story. For example just today and yesterday someone was asking me about the "big boys" and their role and some...
Thanks Mike, that is a truly and utterly believable explanation, you gave which I regard as extremely highly as one of the great truths we can come to understand in this business. Truly thanks. I have been studying Global Macro Economies & conspiracy thories all day for the last 3 weeks, and indeed have come to the conclusion that most of it is total BS.
That said, I think I understand that the greatest thing you probably learned from DS was the mindset of the herd, which you utilize like a great Maestro.

SPs, space, S&R+ RN are really the order flow, I am thinking.

Thanks Mike, I really appreciate your reply.
  • #127,178
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:20am Aug 8, 2013 11:20am
Quoting zamfir
Hey Mike & Others, I understand you are trying to keep things simple here. But if you think that newbies can just come in here and learn the to trade technicals with out following or understanding fundamentals , then i think they are going to be in trouble in the long run. Folks, you cannot become a pure technical trader. there is no such thing, nor there is such a thing as pure fundamental trader. you cannot say i wont follow or figure out fundamentals because it hard. Yes it is hard , that's why this business is difficult. So my suggestion to...
Hey Z


I respect any way people decide to trade. In fact I get asked about fundamentals ALL the time. I always say to people that you should use anything you feel and prove adds VALUE to your trading.


Fundamentals add NO value to my trading. Yes you heard it , I look at ZERO fundamentals and trade consistently profitable. I ignore news, I ignore everything having to do with fundies. I trade ONLY technicals. Now to someone who hasn't spent a lot of time exploring the detailed aspects of technicals they might say you can't just trade pinbars. But anyone who is deeply familiar with how I trade knows that's not the case. That I do many important things with technicals and have a very detailed method

So I truly do respect their are many ways to trade out there. That's trading and that's the BEAUTY of trading too. But like James fundamentals mean nothing to me day to day. Anyone who follows me on the PF will tell you I do this week in and out and show it. It's just what works for me.


Just giving you the flip side on my approach


Best
Mike
  • #127,179
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:23am Aug 8, 2013 11:23am
Quoting zamfir
Hey Mike & Others, I understand you are trying to keep things simple here. But if you think that newbies can just come in here and learn the to trade technicals with out following or understanding fundamentals , then i think they are going to be in trouble in the long run. Folks, you cannot become a pure technical trader. there is no such thing, nor there is such a thing as pure fundamental trader. you cannot say i wont follow or figure out fundamentals because it hard. Yes it is hard , that's why this business is difficult. So my suggestion to...

I donīt think that you are true. I was never interested in news and I never watch it. Everything what I do is pure PA as Mike teaches it here and in the PF and I am profitable. Last 5 months on my demo I had 23 trades and only 3 were slightly loosing. Recently I moved to live because I see that pure PA works
  • #127,180
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:27am Aug 8, 2013 11:27am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Thanks Mike, that is a truly and utterly believable explanation, you gave which I regard as extremely highly as one of the great truths we can come to understand in this business. Truly thanks. I have been studying Global Macro Economies & conspiracy thories all day for the last 3 weeks, and indeed have come to the conclusion that most of it is total BS. That said, I think I understand that the greatest thing you probably learned from DS was the mindset of the herd, which you utilize like a great Maestro. SPs, space, S&R+ RN are really the...
This plays off Z's above. Their are many many ways to do this folks. None of us who trade just technicals, claim or will ever claim it's the only way. Anyone who tells you this is the ONLY way to trade is just blowing smoke. PERIOD. These are the markets. They involve many different players making different decisions.


As a trader my goal is to be logical and consistent. In the long run my proven edge will play out. I could develop methods based around many different concepts. Truly this is the beauty of the markets. But trading has much more to do with just a method, it has to do with consistent application of said method. This is the hardest part of trading. What I present to you all is simply how I approach and view the markets on a daily basis. It's taken me a lot of time and molding with MY views and beliefs.


You know what the greatest thing I learned from DS(and believe me I love the guy and he made me understand my own stuff better). The greatest thing he ever said is we all trade our beliefs. That's a hugely powerful statement.


I had a conversation with a new member to the private group before my webinar. He said mike I hope you don't get offended. He said something to the extent of I was viewing a few of your videos where you were showing some breakout patterns, showing some projection and I thought this was a con and you were full of BS. After further investigation it's become more clear that you can trade with very little and very simple.

I was actually very happy not because he thought what I does work, but because he is proving it to himself and exploring it on his own. THIS is how it HAS to be.

My beliefs are firmly grounded in simplicity. I have proven it to myself and now consistently apply this view point

Again it's just the way I do things. Nothing more nothing less. I think it's awesome the way others have used our material to apply to their beliefs. In fact I promote that greatly as that person is becoming their OWN trader

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