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  • #61,961
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:20pm Aug 7, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} did you say this at 0.9500 also? moon huh.
I said SHORT EURAUD AND BUY AUDUSD
  • #61,962
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:26pm Aug 7, 2013 8:26pm
Took a hit in the face on my short. "Run away to fight another day...."
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,963
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:27pm Aug 7, 2013 8:27pm
CHINA JULY EXPORTS RISE 5.1% Y/Y; EST. 2% RISE from https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/stat...07987407020035 and reported on Forex Factory

"Aside from Fed speeches, there is very little U.S. data this week. Jobless claims are scheduled for release tomorrow and a small uptick is expected after the sharp improvement last week. This leaves the tone of trading vulnerable to external factors such as tonight's Chinese Trade numbers. China's trade surplus is expected to shrink but exports and imports are expected to grow. An uptick in exports and imports would imply a healthier outlook for China and the global economy. On the other hand if exports or imports shrink significantly, it could mean big trouble for risk appetite. A plunge in exports would reflect a pullback in global demand that could threaten growth in China while a plunge in imports could reflect deteriorating internal demand - both scenarios would be damaging to risk. However if Chinese imports and exports increase, currencies and equities could resume their rise. We expect Chinese trade numbers to be central focus for the next 24 hours." Kathy Lien (From BK Asset Management)

This is the reason why AUD is shooting up the Trade Balance news. The actual trade balance is not so important but rather are exports and secondly imports growing or shrinking.
  • #61,964
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:29pm Aug 7, 2013 8:29pm
Hi

To day is option exp in aud

so shortsqueeez may be

no logic will work today

cheers
  • #61,965
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:31pm Aug 7, 2013 8:31pm
I don't trade for a day but I don't lose a trade never use SL with AUD its has to go .8850

Happy Trading ....
Sean Patel
  • #61,966
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:41pm Aug 7, 2013 8:41pm
Quoting Great Bliss
CHINA JULY EXPORTS RISE 5.1% Y/Y; EST. 2% RISE from https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/stat...07987407020035.

  1. Exports +5.1% y/y: expected +2.0%, prior -3.1%
  2. Imports +10.9% y/y: expected +1.0%, prior -0.7%

Import grew 10.9%, ie. China is Aussie biggest importer, therefore means China is importing more from Aussie.

The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,967
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:46pm Aug 7, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Took a hit in the face on my short. "Run away to fight another day...."

it happens bro. I was holding eur/aud short yesterday and yesterday's bizarre asian session took my stop. this is a crazy morning as well. i think to trade these markets you need to have big account, low leverage and wider stops. unfortunately i don't have either
  • #61,968
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:47pm Aug 7, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Exports +5.1% y/y: expected +2.0%, prior -3.1% Imports +10.9% y/y: expected +1.0%, prior -0.7%Import grew 10.9%, ie. China is Aussie biggest importer, therefore means China is importing more from Aussie.

That's right and the higher than expected export figure means global demand is increasing which is good for riskier currencies and equities
  • #61,969
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:48pm Aug 7, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting Great Bliss
{quote} That's right and the higher than expected export figure means global demand is increasing which is good for riskier currencies and equities

I thought china was supposed to be an export oriented country and if their exports are falling its not good for global economy.
  • #61,970
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:49pm Aug 7, 2013 8:49pm
Quoting Ssm
In EurAud, head and shoulder neckline was also broken. Could this be a reversal sign? Not yet maybe, until a new downtrend of LL in higher timeframe can be seen.

I thought that 2 days back just for the markets to retake 1.49 levels. never trust the aussie.
  • #61,971
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:53pm Aug 7, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I thought that 2 days back just for the markets to retake 1.49 levels. never trust the aussie.
The AUD/USD is one of the reliable pair!

Try trading USD/JPY!!!
  • #61,972
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:54pm Aug 7, 2013 8:54pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I thought china was supposed to be an export oriented country and if their exports are falling its not good for global economy.
I would think that China is driving itself into services to be substainable in the longer term and not overly dependent on exports. Anyway, export is not falling, it is increasing at 5.1$ yoy which means the global demands are increasing.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,973
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:58pm Aug 7, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I thought that 2 days back just for the markets to retake 1.49 levels. never trust the aussie.
I suspect Euro are due for a trim at this level, but do not know when. Imagine that a high Euro will hurt Germany's export over time and Germany is the only country left at this moment to support the Euro. Not forgetting that Germany's election is due this year, which the people are looking at a more substainable Euro.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,974
  • Aug 7, 2013 8:59pm Aug 7, 2013 8:59pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} I would think that China is driving itself into services to be substainable in the longer term and not overly dependent on exports. Anyway, export is not falling, it is increasing at 5.1$ yoy which means the global demands are increasing.
they are looking at exports number more than imports... higher exports will increase their GDP and looks like they will meet their GDP target..
  • #61,975
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:29pm Aug 7, 2013 9:29pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} they are looking at exports number more than imports... higher exports will increase their GDP and looks like they will meet their GDP target..

GDP is Y= C + I + G + (EX - IM). While I agree that increased exports is good news but it is certainly not conclusive alone in determining GDP.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,976
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:30pm Aug 7, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I thought that 2 days back just for the markets to retake 1.49 levels. never trust the aussie.
never ever ever trust the aussie!!!!! unreliable pair.

look at the break in the weekly. clear close below 0.9000. and look what he is doing now!!!.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly.png Size: 26 KB
trading is not an addiction. it's a profession.
  • #61,977
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:55pm Aug 7, 2013 9:55pm
AUD going up on interest rate cut and bad jobs data. Makes forex trading so much harder for fundamental traders because it should be heading the other way according to news. Anyway probably limited upside before it comes falling back down again.
  • #61,978
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:02pm Aug 7, 2013 10:02pm
This week is so screwed up. All the fundamental are so off, however with techinical, i believe this push might be the cause of the election upcoming, if i m not wrong, there will be reform in the mining sector which is the big export for Aussie. So 0.93
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,979
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:03pm Aug 7, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting bskwak1124
This week is so screwed up. All the fundamental are so off, however with techinical, i believe this push might be the cause of the election upcoming, if i m not wrong, there will be reform in the mining sector which is the big export for Aussie. So 0.93
Yes! The importation of iron ore has apparently increased into China from Aus.
  • #61,980
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:14pm Aug 7, 2013 10:14pm
Quoting feather
AUD going up on interest rate cut and bad jobs data. Makes forex trading so much harder for fundamental traders because it should be heading the other way according to news. Anyway probably limited upside before it comes falling back down again.
No it should not be heading the other way right now. Keep in mind, banks, large funds and other major players position themselves ahead of announcements made by central banks, not after the announcement. They usually begin doing this months in advance. They position themselves to guard against worst case scenarios. Look at a weekly chart and you will see these large market players began their move in April. Apparently these main market participants started becoming confident of a rate cut at about that time. The confidence grew as the announcement approached so the sell off continued. Since they try and guard against worst case scenario (as aforementioned), they oversold a 0.25% cut (of which they were nearly certain was going to happen at a minimum) in case they got a 0.50% rate cut. When the announcement came and it wasn't worst case scenario, the market begins the correction for the over-correction. Hence the move up after the rate cut announcement.
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