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AUD/USD

  • #61,941
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:47pm Aug 7, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting Mozzy
{quote} Perhaps this was the real reason for the negative spike? If the CNY data is so bad, the AUD should be plummeting. This is bizarre.
Its Asian session. This happens a lot. We still have BoJ. AUD pairs well with yen
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,942
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:48pm Aug 7, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Hmm. So it printed red then.
Yes but I don't really think it matters for AUD. Seems AUD has the motivation to test 0.91231 by the end of this week and maybe 0.9287-0.9311 area next week, as long as the 4H chart keeps stay above 0.8970
  • #61,943
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:49pm Aug 7, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Its Asian session. This happens a lot. We still have BoJ. AUD pairs well with yen
Hmmmmm, this isn't good for me.

I still have shorts underwater. Lucky I can hold them though.
  • #61,944
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:55pm Aug 7, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting Yuchen
{quote} Yes but I don't really think it matters for AUD. Seems AUD has the motivation to test 0.91231 by the end of this week and maybe 0.9287-0.9311 area next week, as long as the 4H chart keeps stay above 0.8970
I'm not so sure Yuchen nothing policy wise to suggest it RBA says lower aussie is needed Fed says taper is needed AUD data continues to be horrendous hard to see Aud moving up bc of weak USD or strong Aussie at this point just seems to me as an oversold bounce to sell into for at least .863 area
  • #61,945
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:58pm Aug 7, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting Yuchen
http://www.investing.com/news/econom...ectedly-251180 Seems China trade balance was already released and it fell to 0.00, but it was 40 mins ago.

I have seen these articles but trade balance to ZERO?

Surely this isn't even possible?
Money never sleeps...
  • #61,946
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:59pm Aug 7, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting Mozzy
{quote} Perhaps this was the real reason for the negative spike? If the CNY data is so bad, the AUD should be plummeting. This is bizarre.
No, I think the real reason for the negative spike is because 0.9035 was former support and it became a weak resistance now, so it may need several times to try to break it, and some traders decide to close their long before the data released.
The employment changed came out a few seconds earlier than the unemployment rate, the employment decrease 10K instead of the forecast to increase 6.3K so this is one of the motivation for the quick drop, but the unemployment rate release as 5.7%, which is better than forecast at 5.8%, this offset the bad outcome of the employment change.

If you see the daily chart for this week, it creates higher low and higher high, if you see 4H chart, it shows after SMA (20) and EMA (20) forms a golden cross, AU never closed below it, if you see 1H chart, AU still above 0.8985 (I used 150EMA), so the short-term shows a uptrend.
  • #61,947
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:01pm Aug 7, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting Mozzy
{quote} Hmmmmm, this isn't good for me. I still have shorts underwater. Lucky I can hold them though.

Maybe everyone was already short on the Aussie so now with any news item regardless of whether it is good or bad it is only looking long AUS? Ask yourself this, if the Aussie jobs repoprt was strong what would have happened? It would have shot up another 50-100 pips and took out some more stops.

When the COT data shows the extreme position for such a long time at some point it simply has to bounce.
Money never sleeps...
  • #61,948
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:01pm Aug 7, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} I'm not so sure Yuchen nothing policy wise to suggest it RBA says lower aussie is needed Fed says taper is needed AUD data continues to be horrendous hard to see Aud moving up bc of weak USD or strong Aussie at this point just seems to me as an oversold bounce to sell into for at least .863 area
Yes, I agree with you, let's see how far it can go for this correction.
  • #61,949
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:03pm Aug 7, 2013 10:03pm
BoJ policy out. Looks routine.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,950
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:05pm Aug 7, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} I have seen these articles but trade balance to ZERO? Surely this isn't even possible?
I think it's possible. The trade balance=export - import, so it is also possible to have a negative number.
China's economy looked ok but actually it is as bad as China's national soccer team....
  • #61,951
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:05pm Aug 7, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting Yuchen
{quote} No, I think the real reason for the negative spike is because 0.9035 was former support and it became a weak resistance now, so it may need several times to try to break it, and some traders decide to close their long before the data released.
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps8bc4bd66.jpg
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,952
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:07pm Aug 7, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting Pip Anon
BoJ policy out. Looks routine.
Yes, you are right, there are some correlation between JPY and AUD..
  • #61,953
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:09pm Aug 7, 2013 10:09pm
.9035 broken, see if it can stay with a close. If so, next resistance will be .9126 level.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,954
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:10pm Aug 7, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting Ssm
.9035 broken, see if it can stay with a close. If so, next resistance will be .9126 level.
USD index is also on a downtrend correction. So very possible
  • #61,955
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:14pm Aug 7, 2013 10:14pm
I said before, time to buy AUD.


We going to the mooon.
  • #61,956
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:14pm Aug 7, 2013 10:14pm
Quoting Yuchen
{quote} USD index is also on a downtrend correction. So very possible
it will be hammered again. i think fresh shorts are build up around 0.9035-40. nothing spectacular abt this run. will be hammered i am sure
  • #61,957
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:15pm Aug 7, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting Fxv
I said before, time to buy AUD. We going to the mooon.

did you say this at 0.9500 also? moon huh.
  • #61,958
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:18pm Aug 7, 2013 10:18pm
still shot my friend
Sean Patel
  • #61,959
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:19pm Aug 7, 2013 10:19pm
In EurAud, head and shoulder neckline was also broken. Could this be a reversal sign? Not yet maybe, until a new downtrend of LL in higher timeframe can be seen.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,960
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:19pm Aug 7, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} it will be hammered again. i think fresh shorts are build up around 0.9035-40. nothing spectacular abt this run. will be hammered i am sure
This may caused by BOJ that they decide to do nothing after the meeting. I think there are more fresh buys are build around 0.9035-40 area now.
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