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AUD/USD

  • #61,761
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:33am Aug 6, 2013 7:33am
The RBA didn't offer much in their remarks. Overnight rally coming into headwinds doesn't bold well for bulls. Bias still to the downside.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #61,762
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:41am Aug 6, 2013 7:41am
Quoting OMGtrader
The RBA didn't offer much in their remarks. Overnight rally coming into headwinds doesn't bold well for bulls. Bias still to the downside.
Agree, clearly .9 level is rejected.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,763
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:43am Aug 6, 2013 7:43am
Quoting OMGtrader
The RBA didn't offer much in their remarks. Overnight rally coming into headwinds doesn't bold well for bulls. Bias still to the downside.
With "strong" US data, 0.88 seems very likely, 0.86, if chinese data comes in red. Then struggle, slowly back to 0.90 due to election.
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,764
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:43am Aug 6, 2013 7:43am
be prepared for a short covering now in this pair. huge one is due shortly
  • #61,765
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:45am Aug 6, 2013 7:45am
Quoting giveachance
be prepared for a short covering now in this pair. huge one is due shortly
Sovereign or corporate interest?
  • #61,766
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:48am Aug 6, 2013 7:48am
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Sovereign or corporate interest?

I am just saying by watching the charts. I don't have insider news. i am waching eur/aud and it is really getting exhausted everytime it rallies
  • #61,767
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:51am Aug 6, 2013 7:51am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I am just saying by watching the charts. I don't have insider news. i am waching eur/aud and it is really getting exhausted everytime it rallies
Thanks mate,

Watching it too just thought you may have had inside info which can always be helpful.

Cheers
  • #61,768
  • Aug 6, 2013 8:25am Aug 6, 2013 8:25am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Agree, clearly .9 level is rejected.
Just like 0.9 was rejected on the way down. Doesn't mean it will continue to hold.
  • #61,769
  • Aug 6, 2013 8:33am Aug 6, 2013 8:33am
However, despite a 15% decline in the AUDUSD this year, the RBA still believes that the exchange rate is too high, which suggests that officials would be more comfortable with the AUDUSD trading between the 0.85 and 0.80 levels. - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-tapering-option-never-heard-145200924.html

hmmm, what RBA thinks and what traders think are so different
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,770
  • Aug 6, 2013 10:53am Aug 6, 2013 10:53am
.9 is looking like it is tough to break even on dollar weakness. Gold also having a rough go at it.


Gold breaking some support. Target is yellow dotted line.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,771
  • Aug 6, 2013 11:17am Aug 6, 2013 11:17am
EA has a potential on down side at least 4560 38fib
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #61,772
  • Edited 12:44pm Aug 6, 2013 12:04pm | Edited 12:44pm
An hourly chart need to be closed above 0.89916 to confirm the temporary bottom formed.

The next 3 possible resistance are 0.9005 (with the possibility to be broken later today), 0.9055 (would be broken if the Employment change could be higher than 6.2K), 0.9138 (would be broken if the employment change could be better than 10K). Without the data outcome, I do not think AU will have large correction yet. However, if the employment change could be better than 10K, we might see 0.93XX later this week or earlier next week.
  • #61,773
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:18pm Aug 6, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting Yuchen
An hourly chart need to be closed above 0.89916 to confirm the temporary bottom formed. The next 3 possible resistance are 0.9105 (with the possibility to be broken later today), 0.9055 (would be broken if the Employment change could be higher than 6.2K), 0.9138 (would be broken if the employment change could be better than 10K). Without the data outcome, I do not think AU will have large correction yet. However, if the employment change could be better than 10K, we might see 0.93XX later this week or earlier next week.
Not sure about the events, but we have failed to break 0.90 twice, still holding the rising trendline from .884 though.

With a break of .90 I see 0.906 as first target, followed by 0.9136. Substantial resistance at 0.933.

Breaking .90 in the next 24h is critical for any hope of bullish run (even short-term). This pair likes to sell off mid-week.
  • #61,774
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:30pm Aug 6, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Not sure about the events, but we have failed to break 0.90 twice, still holding the rising trendline from .884 though. With a break of .90 I see 0.906 as first target, followed by 0.9136. Substantial resistance at 0.933. Breaking .90 in the next 24h is critical for any hope of bullish run (even short-term). This pair likes to sell off mid-week.
Agreed. See .905 as first resistance if it does close above .9
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,775
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:43pm Aug 6, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Not sure about the events, but we have failed to break 0.90 twice, still holding the rising trendline from .884 though. With a break of .90 I see 0.906 as first target, followed by 0.9136. Substantial resistance at 0.933. Breaking .90 in the next 24h is critical for any hope of bullish run (even short-term). This pair likes to sell off mid-week.
Yes, we pretty much have the similar resistance level, mine was 9005, 9055, 9138 and yours is 9000, 9060, 9136. Agreed that it needs to break 9000 as it is both technical resistance and the psyclogical level.

I used 20 WMA and 20 SMA and I can see the 4H chart finally closed above them and also the 20 WMA and 20 SMA are trying to form a golden cross. The MACD also suggested up movement for correction.
  • #61,776
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:50pm Aug 6, 2013 12:50pm
long again today good luck
Sean Patel
  • #61,777
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:17pm Aug 6, 2013 4:17pm
Looks bullish to me.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #61,778
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:19pm Aug 6, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting bogus
Looks bullish to me.
Looks like AUD/USD is attempting to break 0.9000 resistance, if the AUD data would be better than the expectation later today, it should be able to break.
  • #61,779
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:37pm Aug 6, 2013 4:37pm
Yeap, looks bullish. Might goes up to 0.91
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,780
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:37pm Aug 6, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting Yuchen
{quote} Looks like AUD/USD is attempting to break 0.9000 resistance, if the AUD data would be better than the expectation later today, it should be able to break.

I've just gone long.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
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