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CFA Trader - Market Profile and Price action analyses

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 5, 2013 9:38am Aug 5, 2013 9:38am
Hello traders,

My name is Tomas Kaderavek. I hold degree from University of New York in Prague. I am also Certified Financial Advisor (CFA), I have experience working for broker and bank, but now I am private trader.

I specialize in EUR/USD currency pair which I trade on intra-day basis as well as on longer term swing / position basis. I also follow other majors and EUR/CZK for longer term (weeks, months) trades swing trades.
Apart from Forex I follow Gold (GC), Crude oil (CL), S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and few US and Czech stocks.


My trading is mostly based on Market Profile (MP). I also use Price action to partially support or expand what the market tells me already via MP.

During years I have paid for my education with many top world trading mentors. The one who taught me the most is Ludvik Turek, M.A.A. His knowledge of markets and number of trading styles he can teach is incredible - from scalping on 1 minute forex chart to weekly swing trades in commodities and everything in between. He is the one who made me a consistently profitable trader.

I also went through some form of education with Joe Ross, John Carter, Rob Hoffman, Kam Dhadwar, Thomas DeLello, Nial Fuller, Alan Farley, Jim Dalton and Saverio Berlinzani. I have great respect for all of them. They are professional traders who know the markets and things they teach are intelligent and do work.

My trading style has naturally developed into a unique mix of trading know-how that all these professionals have taught me during the years. I will share some of my analyses and trades in this thread.
  • #2
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:52am Aug 5, 2013 9:52am
EURUSD - A bit of lazy day today. We trade inside Value Area of last week. I am considering short term long trade if price gets around 1,3220.

Today´s high is not strong and we might see test test above 1,3300 in coming days.

But generally we are in sideways market and I think it will not be until some major moving macro news event that we get a move from the Value Area of last 6 trading days.

Until then I will just try to "bite" few pips from each trade.
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  • #3
  • Aug 6, 2013 2:53am Aug 6, 2013 2:53am
AUDUSD - RBA lowered interest rates early morning. The initial reaction was rise in price.

However looking at daily Market Profile we can see unsuccessfull auction at low. I expect today´s low to be tested in coming days. I took agressive short trade.
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  • #4
  • Aug 6, 2013 8:47am Aug 6, 2013 8:47am
EURUSD - I took a long trade after small pulback after German macro new at 12:00 in expectation of test of yesterday´s poor high.
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  • #5
  • Aug 8, 2013 7:18am Aug 8, 2013 7:18am
EURUSD - very quiet holiday trading so far today. I think everybody is waiting for employment figures from US.

I expect 2 likely scenarios:

1) spike test into 1,3400 resistance and eventually testing poor high at 1,3415 and retracement with eventual start of new downtrend

2) continuation of recent push higher targeting 1,3500 and eventually 1,3550.

I am more inclined to scenario number 1. But after what we have witnessed on GBP/USD yesterday I do not want to short EURUSD agresivelly just yet. I will wait for some confirmation of potential reversal and then try to short. I see good targets below for shot trade.
  • #6
  • Aug 9, 2013 4:52am Aug 9, 2013 4:52am
EURUSD - I took a long trade yesterday morning and patiently waited for the test of important resistance around 1,3390-1,3400 which came after US markets opened.


For today I expect test of major reference high @ 1,3415. I am curious if sellers step in around there. No sign of big / agressive sellers in EURUSD yet.

It is also important to note that we are in growing market since Monday and I would expect some profit taking before weekend.

My longer term bias is to the short side. I am waiting for signs of sellers and then I will open short position.
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  • #7
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:15am Aug 13, 2013 3:15am
EURUSD - we have a boring, quiet market with very low volume in the past week. I am curious if today´s macro news bring more significant movement. We will have to wait and see.

My medium and long term bias is to the short side but before a significant move down I would like to see test of important reference high at 1,3415.
  • #8
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:14am Aug 13, 2013 7:14am
Hi, CFA Trader

Could you please explain more about the so-called Market Profile method, and how are your charts created?

Thank you. I'm looking forward to your explanations.
  • #9
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:03am Aug 15, 2013 5:03am
GBPUSD - There was a nice long trade opportunity this morning. I took long around developing weekly Value Area High and played into the first pivot resistance around 1,5568.
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  • #10
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:34am Aug 15, 2013 8:34am
GBPUSD - I took short term long trade off the developing wVAH again.
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  • #11
  • Aug 15, 2013 9:57am Aug 15, 2013 9:57am
GBPUSD - And this is the last trade for today. I promise

Loving GBPUSD for today!
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  • #12
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:25am Aug 16, 2013 3:25am
Quoting FXZoK
Hi, CFA Trader Could you please explain more about the so-called Market Profile method, and how are your charts created? Thank you. I'm looking forward to your explanations.
Hello FXZoK, my trading is mainly based on Market Profile. It is what Jim Dalton teaches - Value Areas, Buying / Selling tails, etc.

You can learn more about my trading on my website. You will also find free video analysses there.

My charts are created by Market Profit Pack which is designed for NinjaTrader. I think I am not allowed to promote commercial products in this forum. You can google it out or send me an email (mptrader1980 at gmail dot com) and I will send you some links.
  • #13
  • Edited 12:00pm Aug 19, 2013 3:28am | Edited 12:00pm
EURUSD - I still stick to my call that we will test major reference high @ 1,3415. There are 2 poor highs supporting this idea since they are good candidates for test. When that test comes, it will bring price very close to the reference high.


For today I expect quiet, sideways trading. There is good support zone around 1,3300 where I am waiting for confirmation of buyers to join them in a long trade.
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  • #14
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:31am Aug 20, 2013 4:31am
Quoting CFA Trader
EURUSD - I still stick to my call that we will test major reference high @ 1,3415. There are 2 poor highs supporting this idea since they are good candidates for test. When that test comes, it will bring price very close to the reference high. For today I expect quiet, sideways trading. There is good support zone around 1,3300 where I am waiting for confirmation of buyers to join them in a long trade. {image}
EURUSD - Price tested poor highs that I was writing about yesterday. I closed my long trade from last week in which I was playing for test of high from August 9.
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  • #15
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:33am Aug 20, 2013 8:33am
Quoting CFA Trader
EURUSD - I still stick to my call that we will test major reference high @ 1,3415. There are 2 poor highs supporting this idea since they are good candidates for test. When that test comes, it will bring price very close to the reference high. For today I expect quiet, sideways trading. There is good support zone around 1,3300 where I am waiting for confirmation of buyers to join them in a long trade. {image}
We also got a test of major reference high at 1,3415. All played out according to my expectations. Now I will wait for tomorrow´s FOMC to see market reaction and then I will decide what to do next.
  • #16
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:24am Aug 22, 2013 4:24am
EURUSD - I expect sideways move in previous reference Valua Area until afternoon macro news. We will see if there will be some significant move in light of the macro news.

I am waiting around 1,3390 - 1,3400 to sell but want to see some confirmation of sellers. If we get a break below today´s low I would expect a test into 1,3300 - 1,3290 area.
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  • #17
  • Aug 23, 2013 4:34am Aug 23, 2013 4:34am
Quoting CFA Trader
AUDUSD - RBA lowered interest rates early morning. The initial reaction was rise in price. However looking at daily Market Profile we can see unsuccessfull auction at low. I expect today´s low to be tested in coming days. I took agressive short trade. {image}
I took profit on the position. I got higher heat than expected. The poor low is still in place so there is still a short opportunity.
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  • #18
  • Aug 26, 2013 3:57am Aug 26, 2013 3:57am
Quoting CFA Trader
EURUSD - I expect sideways move in previous reference Valua Area until afternoon macro news. We will see if there will be some significant move in light of the macro news. I am waiting around 1,3390 - 1,3400 to sell but want to see some confirmation of sellers. If we get a break below today´s low I would expect a test into 1,3300 - 1,3290 area. {image}
EURUSD - Last Friday we got a move into sell area I was writing about on August 22. I took a short trade on Friday but was quite agressive, so the entry price was not ideal.

I closed that position few minutes ago. I do not like this market. We are in 10 pip range and volume is so low.
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  • #19
  • Aug 28, 2013 6:13am Aug 28, 2013 6:13am
Crude Oil - My video analysis (
Inserted Video
) from July 23 is still valid.

However it is important to appreciate the current situation around Syria. I have hedged my short position. I expect move around 115,50 and eventually 118. I will close my hedge around those levels.

I do not rule out a violent spike if something goes bad politically or militarily. I will keep eye on this market and eventually hedge again.
  • #20
  • Aug 28, 2013 6:33am Aug 28, 2013 6:33am
EURUSD - Market is strange since yesterdays spike to the upside from key support around 1,3325 - 1,3315.

At the moment it occurs to me that price is likely to test below yesterday´s low. Thre is key support around that low so it will be very important what happens around it. We have poor high yesterday, so there is good potential for upside move.

If we do not close below 1,3320 on daily I am more inclined to price rising and testing again into 1,3400 - 1,3415 area.
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