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AUD/USD

  • #61,681
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:51pm Aug 5, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} If business as normal is a continuation in the bear move, you are in for a not so pleasant surprise (if you are short) No big sellers until we move back to 9300/9350 AUD has fallen 15% in 3 months. Selling here just makes no sense from a technical perspective. A move back to 9300 will be a massive sell.

The RBA addressed this saying Aussie dollar remains high even after 15% decline since April. I think in the near term it is a better choice to go with the policy makers.
“The chicken is only an egg’s way for making another egg.” R. Dawkins
  • #61,682
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:51pm Aug 5, 2013 11:51pm
double top rejection ?
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  • #61,683
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:52pm Aug 5, 2013 11:52pm
Hi

I think wave A started

cheers
  • #61,684
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:52pm Aug 5, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} fundamentals > technicals
HAHA

whatever bud...nless you are placing a few trades a year.....



using fundamentals alone you could never figure out the ideal time to buy and sell.


TIMING is everything.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,685
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:53pm Aug 5, 2013 11:53pm
RBA Statement:

"The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy."
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,686
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:53pm Aug 5, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Look at price over the last few months. Does that look like a spike up?
Thanks for everyone's insight, things never do happen according to the textbooks in the forex world. Crazy, and I love it!

What do you mean? Do you mean this is or is not the starting of a bull market ( short run / or long run ) ?

I mean the bulls have been getting burned for months now - no sense thinking this time is different, Aussie has shown us most spikes up have been meet with heavy selling. Even one's as large as 100 pips, which this clearly is not. (edit: spoke too soon )


Still fading the spike. but its hurting.
  • #61,687
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:54pm Aug 5, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} fundamentals > technicals
would you not rather sell from 9300??

anyone, i hear that funda > technical all the time.. and it just doesn't hold true for me.


technicals were saying to sell at 9300 a couple weeks ago...

now they are saying to buy...


here is one way you can look at current fundamentals simply by viewing a chart. look at the monthly trend.

95% of time it is in sync with the current fundamentals.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,688
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:55pm Aug 5, 2013 11:55pm
its break....greenpipsgreenpips
  • #61,689
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:55pm Aug 5, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} would you not rather sell from 9300?? why would you sell something that has fallen 15% in 3 months?
thats strategy not technicals or fundamentals...
  • #61,690
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:55pm Aug 5, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} fundamentals > technicals
http://www.trade2day.com/articles/analysis
  • #61,691
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:56pm Aug 5, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting Pip Anon
RBA Statement: "The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy."
yes, the longer term technials point to down, and thats why im going to slam aussie short after it corrects.

the fundas agreeing with this only serves to strengthen the probability of the trade. but like i said, 95% of the time the big technical trend is in sync with the fundamentals anyway

after correction, shorts with targets of 8100 and 8550 for a potential early reversal
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,692
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:58pm Aug 5, 2013 11:58pm
Quoting Pip Anon
RBA Statement: "The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy."
the most important one is this

<>
The Board has previously noted that the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand. At today's meeting, and taking account of recent information on prices and activity, the Board judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the inflation target over time.
</>

there.. RBA will CONTINUE to access ..... means does not have room to cut more rates unless data and inflation allow it..
  • #61,693
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:00am Aug 6, 2013 12:00am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} yes, the longer term technials point to down, and thats why im going to slam aussie short after it corrects. the fundas agreeing with this only serves to strengthen the probability of the trade. but like i said, 95% of the time the big technical trend is in sync with the fundamentals anyway after correction, shorts with targets of 8100 and 8550 for a potential early reversal
I'm short on AUSSIE always,
but I got about 10 lot NZD/CHF long - EUR/NZD short.

this week will be interesting
good luck
  • #61,694
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:00am Aug 6, 2013 12:00am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} thats strategy not technicals or fundamentals...
not trying to be mean but i guess i can come off that way

anyway, short the rallies, dont short the dips.

this is my only point really.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,695
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:00am Aug 6, 2013 12:00am
Time to kill teddy bear haha
  • #61,696
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:01am Aug 6, 2013 12:01am
Quoting new_member
its break....greenpipsgreenpips
Break what? Still looking for a close above .9 on the 4H/daily.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,697
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:02am Aug 6, 2013 12:02am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} I'm short on AUSSIE always, but I got about 10 lot NZD/CHF long - EUR/NZD short. this week will be interesting good luck
wow thats incredible. can you post your live explorer with that ?


good luck to you as well
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,698
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:02am Aug 6, 2013 12:02am
i know the guys who tell the others to short; but in the reality, he goes long, because he want the money gone from bear
  • #61,699
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:03am Aug 6, 2013 12:03am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Break what? Still looking for a close above .9 on the 4H/daily.
looks like our fade strategy is working well


did you get any more of your buy limits triggered on the spike down to 8850 yesterday?

i sure did. got 8851 and 8862 and i cut my 8906 entries for +10.. i did this to reduce risk and to allow me to place more buy limits under the lows.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,700
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:03am Aug 6, 2013 12:03am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} wow thats incredible. can you post your live explorer with that ? good luck to you as well
over telephone, UBS CH account
that doesn't have a live trade explorer.

but I can post monthly statement later when it comes by mail/post.

nothing is virtual there sorry.
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