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AUD/USD

  • #61,601
  • Aug 5, 2013 1:36pm Aug 5, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting iahmedz
Hi traders..... what are your plans for AUD? Still selling?
Inserted Video
  • #61,602
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:05pm Aug 5, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_66jPJVS4JE
I can not open video on my cell :-/
  • #61,603
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:33pm Aug 5, 2013 2:33pm
Long at market . Target: .9100 SL: .8850
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,604
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:49pm Aug 5, 2013 2:49pm
interesting pop up on the 15m and a pretty hard push on the upper boundary of the ascending triangle. SHAGGEH-DADDY
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,605
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:10pm Aug 5, 2013 3:10pm
I'm on the 4H and have a good strong uptrend going also
When I Buy Price Short, When I Sell Price Goes Long.
  • #61,606
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:23pm Aug 5, 2013 3:23pm
if day candlestick close below 0.89, it may be bearish tomorrow.
  • #61,607
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:52pm Aug 5, 2013 3:52pm
TRADING AUD CASH RATE 130806 TUES 0430GMT

According to the OIS, an interest rate swap, the market is pricing in a 90% chance of rate cut of 0.25% by the RBA. If RBA cuts the interest rate to 2.5%, it will be a historic low. Remember that during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, RBA slash interest rates from 7.25% to 3.00% within 8 months. And RBA stopped at 3.00% and never moved it lower after that. However, the Australian government has just called for an election on 7th Sept 2013. Will RBA cut interest rates again so near to the election date? The political pressure to maintain the interest rate at current levels could be very strong. Or will RBA put the interest rate on hold, and wait until an opportune time to cut after the election? So there we have, the $1 million dollar question on every trader's mind. How would the market react to the interest rate decision on tuesday?

This is what i believe should happen. With the market having price in a 90% chance of a rate cut, it means that every major banking institution has already shorted AUDUSD days and weeks in advance. With 90% of everyone already short, who else is left to short? My answer, not many people.

Scenario #1 (RBA cut interest rates to 2.50%)
If RBA cut interest rates at 0430GMT, i think there may be an initial knee-jerk reaction to the downside after the interest rate announcement. And after the initial knee-jerk to the downside, there may be a rebound rally up as the traders take profit on their short positions. This is possibly a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."

It is hard to put in a price level as to where i should buying my long positions. The key is to watch the price action. Here is my trading plan.

  1. Wait for the selling to stop
  2. When selling stops, there should be a sideways consolidation
  3. During the consolidation, buy first 1/3 with 30pips stop loss
  4. If first 1/3 is not stopped out. and price continues to consolidation, then buy second with 30pips stop loss
  5. If i am not stopped out yet and price breaks above top range of consolidation zone, buy my third and final 1/3 with stop loss below the bottom of the range

Scenario #2 (RBA maintain interest rates at 2.75%)
If this scenario happens, there is going to be a major short covering rally. AUDUSD can go up more than 100pips within minutes. In this case, look to take an aggressive long position on any pullback.

  • #61,608
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:07pm Aug 5, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting ForexMGames
And after the initial knee-jerk to the downside, there may be a rebound rally up as the traders take profit on their short positions. This is possibly a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
This also happened last night on the worse than expected Retail Sales. I took the long but solid a bit too early before the NY open this morning taking profits but it is still rising.

I agree with your analysis and see it the same all the way through. Nicely articulated.
  • #61,609
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:20pm Aug 5, 2013 4:20pm
AU will probably go for 8950's and later dive for 8830's (up to 8760's) where it will bounce again and this time significantly
69
  • #61,610
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:33pm Aug 5, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting JCL's-Forex
{quote} This also happened last night on the worse than expected Retail Sales. I took the long but solid a bit too early before the NY open this morning taking profits but it is still rising. I agree with your analysis and see it the same all the way through. Nicely articulated.

Thanks. This cash rate decision could be the major mover for AUDUSD for this week.
  • #61,611
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:51pm Aug 5, 2013 4:51pm
I see the AUD/USD trading at .3000 or so by the next hour.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,612
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:56pm Aug 5, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting ForexMGames
{quote}AU will probably go for 8950's and later dive for 8830's (up to 8760's) where it will bounce again and this time significantly

.


On a serious note though. I agree with this prediction. Although I think 8950 is a bit optimistic..I see it going no more higher than .8940's. Back down to .8880 maybe and back up. In the bigger picture of what to expect the slight lower number on my top is miniscule.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,613
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:06pm Aug 5, 2013 5:06pm
WWSD?

What Would Soros Do?



http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bil...010432812.html
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #61,614
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:12pm Aug 5, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Erebus
WWSD? What Would Soros Do? http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bil...010432812.html

Key line: "If the rumours are to be believed, the 82-year-old investment legend pocketed a cool $18.5 million from the play."
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,615
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:55pm Aug 5, 2013 5:55pm
ASU_Sep Down Down Down
  • #61,616
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:08pm Aug 5, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting Erebus
WWSD? What Would Soros Do? http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bil...010432812.html
Oh, this was the news by May 5th, 2013. I thought it is the rumour for today's rate decision.
  • #61,617
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:17pm Aug 5, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting Malik taxila
ASU_Sep Down Down Down

Arizona State University?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,618
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:18pm Aug 5, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Arizona State University?

how u knw ?
  • #61,619
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:21pm Aug 5, 2013 6:21pm
more down and up. i tink.

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  • #61,620
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:47pm Aug 5, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting P.Action
more down and up. i tink. {image}
We should see movement about an hr or two prior to announcement. At lest usually that's what Aussie does. Tends to dift in the opposite direction the news is expecting to be.

I am not placing an order prior. Some may get lucky, but I am going to try and fade the spike. Profit target 30-40 pips, risk 15-20 depending on the candle prior to execution.

Not looking to carry longs yet.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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