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AUD/USD

  • #61,501
  • Aug 4, 2013 6:50pm Aug 4, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi Mozzy, Note your occupation is forex trader. Are you with one of the big four and if so, what's your read on capital and trade flows at these levels? are seeing moves to hedge long term exposures? would like to get a handle on the underlying real business rather than technical speculation.

Well it seems that although net positions from large specs are short there is a plateau and being we are extremely deeply sold off the stagnation in new positions seems to sugget either one of two things.
1 - we have run our course and are primed for a reversal

2 - we are just taking a pause until after the rate decision

my guess is number 2
Money never sleeps...
  • #61,502
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:00pm Aug 4, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting Malik taxila
AUS_Sep I am also still with Long But i know AUS will go down .............. Long Term Selling mood But B4 AUS go down it will touch 91xx area then fall
If you know it will go down why are you long? You know, you can get out of a losing trade by setting up realistic exit plan. You can reenter are a better entry.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,503
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:03pm Aug 4, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting Tmsago
{quote} bad memories
Trading forex or pretty women? lol Man, I use to put dysfunctional in dysfunctional relationship when I was younger lol
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,504
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:13pm Aug 4, 2013 7:13pm
Quoting Mozzy
{quote} Personally, I don't think there will be a rate cut ahead of an election.
with RBA governor's statements last week, the rate cut is almost guaranteed. I think that is a foregone conclusion. The question is how much dovish his forward guidance is going to be
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #61,505
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:15pm Aug 4, 2013 7:15pm
Quoting stt
{quote} with RBA governor's statements last week, the rate cut is almost guaranteed. I think that is a foregone conclusion. The question is how much dovish his forward guidance is going to be
I think there will be. Rudd is not the "optimist" Gillard is. He seems to keep it real. The situation over there won't get better unless you face reality.

The data just gets worse. Tonight services index falls. Why wouldn't you sell this pair? Although, I think 150-200 more pips and will pop big
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,506
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:21pm Aug 4, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Trading forex or pretty women? lol Man, I use to put dysfunctional in dysfunctional relationship when I was younger lol
i 'm new to trading no memories yet
i think i will start linking .. easier to memorize
Walla Maybe ya Habibi
  • #61,507
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:23pm Aug 4, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I think there will be. Rudd is not the "optimist" Gillard is. He seems to keep it real. The situation over there won't get better unless you face reality. The data just gets worse. Tonight services index falls. Why wouldn't you sell this pair? Although, I think 150-200 more pips and will pop big
retail data will decide today direction, i guess 0.8750 is the bottom line for the month ,
Mohan
  • #61,508
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:29pm Aug 4, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting mohan76
{quote} retail data will decide today direction, i guess 0.8750 is the bottom line for the month ,
That is where my longs are waiting to be unleashed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,509
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:51pm Aug 4, 2013 7:51pm
A lot has been said about the likely impact of tomorrows rate decision, especially an expectation of AUD diving further. The perspective is that the rate is only the RBA's 24 hour cash rate which may not reflect in the cost of term money, the arbitrage sum indicates that a move of 25BP represents minimal number of points and the points impact till end of year are well and truly priced in current market.
  • #61,510
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:02pm Aug 4, 2013 8:02pm
Too much event risk taking positions before the all very important RBA rate decision meeting... I'd stay on the sidelines and see what the language is after the release. 25 basis point cut is pretty much baked in the cake as expectation.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #61,511
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:11pm Aug 4, 2013 8:11pm
Quoting OMGtrader
Too much event risk taking positions before the all very important RBA rate decision meeting... I'd stay on the sidelines and see what the language is after the release. 25 basis point cut is pretty much baked in the cake as expectation.

How much is the language really gonna matter if they cut the rate?

"Well we cut the rate, but we don't think the economy is bad"

"We cut the rate, everything is actually good though"


?
  • #61,512
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:20pm Aug 4, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} How much is the language really gonna matter if they cut the rate? "Well we cut the rate, but we don't think the economy is bad" "We cut the rate, everything is actually good though" ?

exactly - one the the best if not the best economies in the world.

the numbers are always great - unemployment, job postings, inflation etc........they are just trying to talk down their currency like other central banks.

in the end - they are the highest yielding currency out there with good economic numbers.......do the math....this currency has been this low before........ask your self which way it went from here.......yes there is room to go down.........but it appears to me that all central banks are trying to get parity with the USD so that a new reserve currency come be brought forth at no cost to them........

deep thoughts......hmmmmmmmmmmm really?

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #61,513
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:23pm Aug 4, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} How much is the language really gonna matter if they cut the rate? "Well we cut the rate, but we don't think the economy is bad" "We cut the rate, everything is actually good though" ?

i am more interested to know if RBA think inflation will stay low..
  • #61,514
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:27pm Aug 4, 2013 8:27pm
Retail sales to be announced soon, which may will give things a bit more direction to trade if figures are unexpected.

The Govt have finally announced an election date so that may also hold the AUD in its tracks for a while as well.
  • #61,515
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:32pm Aug 4, 2013 8:32pm
horrible retail sales....AUD is on slippery slope
  • #61,516
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:32pm Aug 4, 2013 8:32pm
0.0%..... Holding short to 0.88
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,517
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:34pm Aug 4, 2013 8:34pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} How much is the language really gonna matter if they cut the rate? "Well we cut the rate, but we don't think the economy is bad" "We cut the rate, everything is actually good though" ?

it is important to understand the thinker of the RBA. Yes, expectations are already expecting an cut in this meeting, if for some crazy reason that the RBA chooses to not cut, the Aussie will ripe the face off the Aussie bears. What is needed to hear is language of any further cuts along the road or that they are done cutting. This drives rates expectation and also Aussie exchange prices.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #61,518
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:37pm Aug 4, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting samirs
horrible retail sales....AUD is on slippery slope
Hate to see it when they are good again, couldn't find a carpark when shopping last Saturday
  • #61,519
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:39pm Aug 4, 2013 8:39pm
Quoting DannyW
{quote} Hate to see it when they are good again, couldn't find a carpark when shopping last Saturday

it was june data , this year we did not had enough year end clearance
Mohan
  • #61,520
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:47pm Aug 4, 2013 8:47pm
Despite the bad retail... Bears are struggling....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
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