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AUD/USD

  • #61,481
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:02pm Aug 4, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting JeremyWS
the OIS is pretty confident that there will be a rate cut as well with effective yield of 2.565% {image}
90% chance of a cut

if we don't get it, aud rallies hard. it's the most saturated major currency. even more so then yen shorts.

if we do get it, aud will probably fall slightly more... 8800 to 8700 zone. then rally (correction), then more down.


my extremely good trader buddy who uses $1 stop losses on his gold entries...
he says 15 weeks and AUD will see it's bottom.

he says its possible we see a monthly bull candle before that bottoming out point, otherwise that would be 7 straight bearish months, unprecedented, has never happened before...
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,482
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:14pm Aug 4, 2013 2:14pm
aussies valuation is insane compared to its rate forecast.. speculative positioning for bears is at an all time high too.

and this was when we were at 9100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-rbarateforecast.png Size: 950 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,483
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:40pm Aug 4, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} ive been doing this lately to see if the market really cares what im doing hint: they don't. maybe if i was entering 10,000 lots they might care a bit more to stop me out. no big player is going to alter his game plan simply because a smaller player is using the exact same game plan, lol {image}
I read what you have to say.......

I look at your chart by opening them larger...........

You and I have the almost the same game plan, to fade a correction upward..........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #61,484
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:42pm Aug 4, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
aussies valuation is insane compared to its rate forecast.. speculative positioning for bears is at an all time high too. and this was when we were at 9100 {image}

markets are irrational longer than we can remain solvent
  • #61,485
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:06pm Aug 4, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting samirs
{quote} markets are irrational longer than we can remain solvent

truer words never been spoken
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,486
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:32pm Aug 4, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} . Trading forex is like making love to a beautiful women. Slow and steady because when you blow your entire load in two minutes you just end up disappointed and looking foolish.
bad memories
Walla Maybe ya Habibi
  • #61,487
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:40pm Aug 4, 2013 3:40pm
AUS USD, gap up, I guess on the weekends positive CNY data!
  • #61,488
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:50pm Aug 4, 2013 3:50pm
AUS_Sep I am also still with Long But i know AUS will go down ..............

Long Term Selling mood But B4 AUS go down it will touch 91xx area then fall
  • #61,489
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:12pm Aug 4, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting samirs
trapped longs hoping for AUD to bounce to .91+.....what normally happens in this case is well known best thing is to get out of hopium and reassess


HMMMMM Yup dude at 91xx Get Out ...... then w8 is better option or Sell is good point 4 green pips lets see what market will Do
  • #61,490
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:32pm Aug 4, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting forexleagues
AUS USD, gap up, I guess on the weekends positive CNY data!
I think, market will test last week low
  • #61,491
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:40pm Aug 4, 2013 4:40pm
Anybody using OANDA? AU spread goes 10+ pips sometimes. Any reason?
  • #61,492
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:23pm Aug 4, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting Magicmen
Anybody using OANDA? AU spread goes 10+ pips sometimes. Any reason?
Probably due to thin interbank market as the is a bank holiday in NSW and most market makers would only have reduced staff levels.
  • #61,493
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:34pm Aug 4, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting Magicmen
Anybody using OANDA? AU spread goes 10+ pips sometimes. Any reason?
Thin Liquidity.
  • #61,494
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:39pm Aug 4, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting Magicmen
Anybody using OANDA? AU spread goes 10+ pips sometimes. Any reason?
Market open, spread widens.
  • #61,495
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:42pm Aug 4, 2013 5:42pm
Thanks for your response guys.

Pretty dangerous. Cannot use tight SL. 1st time, I noticed such a wide spread.
  • #61,496
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:44pm Aug 4, 2013 5:44pm
Quoting Magicmen
Thanks for your response guys. Pretty dangerous. Cannot use tight SL. 1st time, I noticed such a wide spread.
You can. You don't need to trade at Sunday open.
  • #61,497
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:50pm Aug 4, 2013 5:50pm
I think if no rate cut happens , this will support the aud to go up
  • #61,498
  • Aug 4, 2013 6:09pm Aug 4, 2013 6:09pm
Quoting Alzuraiqi
I think if no rate cut happens , this will support the aud to go up
Personally, I don't think there will be a rate cut ahead of an election.
  • #61,499
  • Aug 4, 2013 6:26pm Aug 4, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting Mozzy
{quote} Personally, I don't think there will be a rate cut ahead of an election.
Hi Mozzy,

Note your occupation is forex trader. Are you with one of the big four and if so, what's your read on capital and trade flows at these levels? are seeing moves to hedge long term exposures? would like to get a handle on the underlying real business rather than technical speculation.
  • #61,500
  • Aug 4, 2013 6:47pm Aug 4, 2013 6:47pm
Yes, my occupation as a private trader for myself.

I don't have any answers to your questions. Sorry.

You might be better off to ask a real professional.
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