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AUD/USD

  • #61,461
  • Aug 3, 2013 7:02pm Aug 3, 2013 7:02pm
Quoting P.Action
i wait this zone for possible bounce action. {image}
agreed this would clean out a lot of stops from those who think the 8770 will hold up

and we all know big players reverse markets after stops are taken.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,462
  • Aug 3, 2013 7:12pm Aug 3, 2013 7:12pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} agreed this would clean out a lot of stops from those who think the 8770 will hold up and we all know big players reverse markets after stops are taken.



i agree you too. it is always done. in that zone i will watch in smaller TF. after all SL hunter action. i will try to catch oppotunity. need some patience. (generally retest.)
  • #61,463
  • Aug 3, 2013 8:57pm Aug 3, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting iNSIELD
Alien time to long the AUD/NZD looking for the 1.1325 area Tp will be about 200 pips
I do not trade that one , but Thanks, I will look at it..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #61,464
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:12pm Aug 3, 2013 9:12pm
Quoting iNSIELD
Alien time to long the AUD/NZD looking for the 1.1325 area Tp will be about 200 pips
I like what I see, but I think it's a few weeks away from settling down. AUDNZD

The weekly chart is highly compressed into the Dirt ! In the first window...........

The ADX window shows no sign of letting up. My ADX dashboard is all lite up to keep selling......

I would like to see the bollinger bands contract a bit...............

The RSIOMA is not ready to turn long yet...........

I looked at the H4 and H1 and I would wait to see what the H4 does when it cycles back to the bottom and if it holds there , then I would be ready to trade it long.............

Thanks Alien...........

But Thanks for the heads up, I will surely trade this one in 4 to 6 weeks...........for 500 pips or more........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8_3_13 audnzd weekly.JPG Size: 244 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #61,465
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:17pm Aug 3, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} agreed this would clean out a lot of stops from those who think the 8770 will hold up and we all know big players reverse markets after stops are taken.
Alien is Stopless.............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #61,466
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:31pm Aug 3, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} agreed it will bounce the only question is will we be stopped out before it does? if the RBA doesn't cut this thing will go straight back to 9300 im taking a scaling in approach as its positive carry, even if the move takes a while to play out, its worth it to me. buy some here, some at 8760.. etc there are some very confluent fibonacci zones incoming here.. i will post a chart in a moment im thinking i move my stop loss below 8700 although there is another sneaky bastard at 8560/75 that could easily hold up...
I see possible crab at 87948 I am watching. But seems more confluence below. So, wave 4 and then wave 5 still to come?

Have bat and crab in zone below. But looking at monthly and weekly so have to be patient.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly83.jpg Size: 221 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #61,467
  • Aug 4, 2013 1:29am Aug 4, 2013 1:29am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} I like what I see, but I think it's a few weeks away from settling down. AUDNZD The weekly chart is highly compressed into the Dirt ! In the first window........... The ADX window shows no sign of letting up. My ADX dashboard is all lite up to keep selling...... I would like to see the bollinger bands contract a bit............... The RSIOMA is not ready to turn long yet........... I looked at the H4 and H1 and I would wait to see what the H4 does when it cycles back to the bottom and if it holds there , then I would be ready to trade it...

It seems like NZD/USD is on uptrend touching LTL on W1, so if you want to long AUD i think the best bet is on AUD/USD (imo)
  • #61,468
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:07am Aug 4, 2013 4:07am
Beware:

Rudd Calls Australia Election for Sept. 7
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #61,469
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:24am Aug 4, 2013 4:24am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Beware: Rudd Calls Australia Election for Sept. 7
Dont worry mate, that event is a month from today, whats more important is this week data.
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,470
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:48am Aug 4, 2013 5:48am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} Holy Shit !! Man made island with a shape of 'YUAN COIN" ???? Oz is OWNED! {image}{image}
Ha! It more about change of owners & putting to test "market economy' slogan. Will flat earth society veto the deal on expense of property prices and country future? Could be large mover for aud either way including au economy. Resources are found elsewhere as well.
  • #61,471
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:29am Aug 4, 2013 7:29am
AUDNZD seems quantitatively undervalued vs R differentials. Seemingly priced in at ~1.20 with current r's.

Or RBA cuts by 125bps but that is never going to happen. I'm getting long AUDNZD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD vs r dif.png Size: 93 KB
  • #61,472
  • Aug 4, 2013 9:26am Aug 4, 2013 9:26am
Thinking out Loud..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8_4_13 aud thinking out loud.JPG Size: 443 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #61,473
  • Aug 4, 2013 9:58am Aug 4, 2013 9:58am
Quoting forexalien
Thinking out Loud.......... {image}
If that happens, that would be great, because i have similar chart too.... But if fundamental is bad, that level will be taken easily since is just supporting to see if bull or bear.... Well, is my opinion...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,474
  • Aug 4, 2013 11:11am Aug 4, 2013 11:11am
I find it fascinating to read through all of these forums and see how different traders do their analysis and the logic behind some of the trading decisions that are made. Anything from fundamentals, technical, opinions and even some emotional decisions. This is why trading works, because there are millions of people trading and everyone has a different idea!
  • #61,475
  • Aug 4, 2013 11:48am Aug 4, 2013 11:48am
Quoting zOrO2kX
{quote} It seems like NZD/USD is on uptrend touching LTL on W1, so if you want to long AUD i think the best bet is on AUD/USD (imo)


Short EA is a better option right now imho
Money never sleeps...
  • #61,476
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:29pm Aug 4, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting bskwak1124
{quote} If that happens, that would be great, because i have similar chart too.... But if fundamental is bad, that level will be taken easily since is just supporting to see if bull or bear.... Well, is my opinion...

Interest rate outlook for the RBA is still pointing lower.

Currently priced into the market is almost 100% likelihood of 2.5% and if the statement from Stevens suggests more to come the price will have another 150-200 pips to fall over the medium term.

The slowdown in China has been priced in somewhat and any strong data from CN could be the thing that could give some support to the Aussie. Weak CN data, dovish rhetoric from Stevens and we could see the train to .8 (it will be interesting to see if the relatively good Chinese data over the weekend will have an effect).

Add on top of this an announcement of tapering from the fed and you could be .75

Add also a crash in Equities resulting from fed tapering and you could then see 0.65

On the other hand, no cut from the RBA and strong data in both Aus and CN and we could have the makings of a reversal finding resistance back at 0.93-5
Money never sleeps...
  • #61,477
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:44pm Aug 4, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting samirs
{quote} so anything could happen

oh yes....
Money never sleeps...
  • #61,478
  • Aug 4, 2013 1:52pm Aug 4, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} Interest rate outlook for the RBA is still pointing lower. Currently priced into the market is almost 100% likelihood of 2.5% and if the statement from Stevens suggests more to come the price will have another 150-200 pips to fall over the medium term. The slowdown in China has been priced in somewhat and any strong data from CN could be the thing that could give some support to the Aussie. Weak CN data, dovish rhetoric from Stevens and we could see the train to .8 (it will be interesting to see if the relatively good Chinese data over the...

The chance of rate cut is only about 92% but its pretty much 100% to be fair, however has been wrong before.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD RBA rate.png Size: 61 KB
  • #61,479
  • Aug 4, 2013 1:56pm Aug 4, 2013 1:56pm
the OIS is pretty confident that there will be a rate cut as well with effective yield of 2.565%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RBA r.png Size: 40 KB
  • #61,480
  • Edited 2:13pm Aug 4, 2013 2:00pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting forexalien
Thinking out Loud.......... {image}
ive been doing this lately to see if the market really cares what im doing

hint: they don't. maybe if i was entering 10,000 lots they might care a bit more to stop me out.

no big player is going to alter his game plan simply because a smaller player is using the exact same game plan, lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDWEEKLYBP------AUGUST WEEK 1.jpg Size: 567 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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