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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #3,221
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:15am Aug 3, 2013 10:15am
Quoting godim
{quote} Yes, yes! The question is, which event is "reverse side of the coin?"

I'm short eurusd, but I try to understand the resilience of this par. Based on my TA (MML, support/dem, harmonics, PA) this par should go down with 1.22xx target within few months. From the fundamentals, USA economy is doing better and better compared with EU. I see a storm in forming among EU various economies. But, somehow, eurusd is rising! Maybe because QE3 is not ended? I just wander
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
  • #3,222
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:18am Aug 3, 2013 10:18am
Quoting Zyggy
{quote} I'm short eurusd, but I try to understand the resilience of this par. Based on my TA (MML, support/dem, harmonics, PA) this par should go down with 1.22xx target within few months. From the fundamentals, USA economy is doing better and better compared with EU. I see a storm in forming among EU various economies. But, somehow, eurusd is rising! Maybe because QE3 is not ended? I just wander
You hit the nail right on the head. That is the reason and there is no doubt about it in my mind. The Fed is on a pump-onomics campaign and until they are forced to take their foot off the accelerator, the EUR/USD will continue to find support. It's just a matter of time before we see 1.22xx and further below that too.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,223
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:34am Aug 3, 2013 10:34am
Quoting Zyggy
{quote} I'm short eurusd, but I try to understand the resilience of this par. Based on my TA (MML, support/dem, harmonics, PA) this par should go down with 1.22xx target within few months. From the fundamentals, USA economy is doing better and better compared with EU. I see a storm in forming among EU various economies. But, somehow, eurusd is rising! Maybe because QE3 is not ended? I just wander
First I want to say that the analysis has nothing to do with trade. You can have great analysis and very wrong trade. Maybe just the opposite. Having a wrong analysis and profitable trade.
Second. Forexcobe shows us how to trade. Without knowing any analysis of the market. There is trading system. Not for analysis.
Third. I prefer not to talk about trade and trade system.

Edit: I just have fun by do analysis by Gann. That's it.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,224
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:35am Aug 3, 2013 10:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You hit the nail right on the head. That is the reason and there is no doubt about it in my mind. The Fed is on a pump-onomics campaign and until they are forced to take their foot off the accelerator, the EUR/USD will continue to find support. It's just a matter of time before we see 1.22xx and further below that too.

Thank you PT for your answer. Regarding various TA tools, I think Elliot Theory is a formidable tool ... during normal times. But now, with market so distorted (all kind of QEs) , I shouldn't rely on it.
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
  • #3,225
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:46am Aug 3, 2013 10:46am
Quoting godim
{quote} First I want to say that the analysis has nothing to do with trade. You can have great analysis and very wrong trade. Maybe just the opposite. Having a wrong analysis and profitable trade. Second. Forexcobe shows us how to trade. Without knowing any analysis of the market. There is trading system. Not for analysis. Third. I prefer not to talk about trade and trade system.

Thank you godim. Maybe one day we will meet and discuss about market analysis, we are neighbors anyway. And yes I do follow forexcube but for higher time frames because I am part time trader, I cant watch the market all the time.
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
  • #3,226
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:06am Aug 3, 2013 11:06am
Quoting Zyggy
{quote} Thank you godim. Maybe one day we will meet and discuss about market analysis, we are neighbors anyway. And yes I do follow forexcube but for higher time frames because I am part time trader, I cant watch the market all the time.
Yes. Next month I can go once again to Bucharest. Can be seen. If this happens I will write PM.
While in terms of EW, you're wrong. They have to always work.
Have a nice day.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,227
  • Aug 3, 2013 1:52pm Aug 3, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting godim
{quote} Well. One question from me. Let us assume that the the current target is down. Just to assume. Scenario A or Scenario B without any difference. Why is the price not go below 5091 and even rose above 5266? Why? {image} I accept the market for a logical and consistent. And for me the logical continuation of this movement is new UpTrend. For the euro. Could seek support from 3134, but it can go on without her. Even the return of seeking to support is appropriate to be interpreted as a weakness of bulls. Let's put this possibility (new UpTrend)...

Hi Godim, no worry about your English. I think we all can understand it perfectly. You do an awful good job in translating
  • #3,228
  • Aug 3, 2013 1:55pm Aug 3, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting godim
This chart I do not want to show so much. It induces your more questions, than answers. Let's see the fan of 3710. The price is in the last line of defense. Attacks the penultimate line of the fan. One, two times price bounces off this line. Accurately. Well almost exactly. So of your graphics can have it as trend line. You can expect a bounce back. But for "The rule for all angles" is possible to have a breakthrough. It is normal when there is a break and support the movement to continue to the upper line. After a while, I'll show on H4. Now...

Thanks for explanation. Well appreciated.
  • #3,229
  • Aug 3, 2013 2:03pm Aug 3, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting godim
{quote} First I want to say that the analysis has nothing to do with trade. You can have great analysis and very wrong trade. Maybe just the opposite. Having a wrong analysis and profitable trade. Second. Forexcobe shows us how to trade. Without knowing any analysis of the market. There is trading system. Not for analysis. Third. I prefer not to talk about trade and trade system. Edit: I just have fun by do analysis by Gann. That's it.
That is true - the good thing of all analysis is, when we understand it correctly, we know perfectly, when we are wrong.

And I have to admit:

the biggest gains I made, when my analysis was wrong and I immediately turned the ship


And yes, Godim, you are the Gann-man
  • #3,230
  • Aug 3, 2013 2:09pm Aug 3, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting Zyggy
{quote} Thank you PT for your answer. Regarding various TA tools, I think Elliot Theory is a formidable tool ... during normal times. But now, with market so distorted (all kind of QEs) , I shouldn't rely on it.

Hi Zyggy,


hope to see you posting here regularly :-)


In times like these, EW is sometimes not a big help. That is, because when corrective moves goes over months and years, we simply have too many options to count the moves.

But anyway: each TF has its own waves and trends. Simply switch through the various TF's to find a high probability count and try to trade that. That is the flexibility of Elliott Wave, that is the flexibility of fractal behavior
  • #3,231
  • Aug 3, 2013 2:20pm Aug 3, 2013 2:20pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} that is the flexibility of fractal behavior
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,232
  • Aug 3, 2013 2:30pm Aug 3, 2013 2:30pm
Weekly MarcToMarket update
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/08/...technical.html

excerpt regarding the Euro and Sterling

Euro: Immediate resistance is seen in the $1.3300-10 high and then $1.3350. The June high, near $1.3410 represented a 4-month high and marks the upper end of the range. On the downside, a break of $1.3180 is needed to signal a top is in place.

Sterling: New lows since July 25th high near $1.5425 were recorded prior to the US jobs data and sterling proceeded to rally through, and closing above the previous day's high. This sets up a potential key reversal. A move above $1.5310 would signal a tested on the late July high The lighter participation and the BOE's quarterly inflation report may restrain the upside in the first part of the week ahead. Support is pegged near $1.5100.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,233
  • Aug 3, 2013 2:56pm Aug 3, 2013 2:56pm
32°C in my living room

dreaming......
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  • #3,234
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:28pm Aug 3, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting infinitus
32°C in my living room dreaming...... {image}
Me too

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,235
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:34pm Aug 3, 2013 3:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Me too {image}

but feeling like.......
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  • #3,236
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:40pm Aug 3, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but feeling like....... {image}
I'd settle for that right now. Over here it feels like this...

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,237
  • Edited 10:23pm Aug 3, 2013 4:21pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} Shame on me? No my friend. Shame on the statisticians who have obviously no idea how to count. Just in case you think I pulled that statement out of my arse, here is the data to prove that my statement was based on facts Next month I expect an upward revision to reflect the improvements. ISM Manufacturing July 2013 {image} ISM Non-Manufacturing July 2013 {image} Markit Economics Mfg PMI July 2013 {image} BLS US Jobless Claims July 2013 {image}
LOL, No, I did not mean that. Anyway, thanks for sharing once more.

Anyway, those are the weekly bar before NFP. The market always knows, it is always right.

Anyway lets move on now, we do not want turn this in an ego trip. It is clear we have different way to interpret the market, there is not a right way but just the way that suits us to make money, because that should be our main goal.
Attached Image
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #3,238
  • Aug 3, 2013 4:30pm Aug 3, 2013 4:30pm
Quoting godim
{quote} Well. One question from me. Let us assume that the the current target is down. Just to assume. Scenario A or Scenario B without any difference. Why is the price not go below 5091 and even rose above 5266? Why? {image} I accept the market for a logical and consistent. And for me the logical continuation of this movement is new UpTrend. For the euro. Could seek support from 3134, but it can go on without her. Even the return of seeking to support is appropriate to be interpreted as a weakness of bulls. Let's put this possibility...
I would consider it as for the bulls to enter at a better price.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #3,239
  • Aug 3, 2013 4:33pm Aug 3, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting godim
{quote} First I want to say that the analysis has nothing to do with trade. You can have great analysis and very wrong trade. Maybe just the opposite. Having a wrong analysis and profitable trade. Second. Forexcobe shows us how to trade. Without knowing any analysis of the market. There is trading system. Not for analysis. Third. I prefer not to talk about trade and trade system. Edit: I just have fun by do analysis by Gann. That's it.
Great post.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #3,240
  • Aug 3, 2013 4:46pm Aug 3, 2013 4:46pm
My view for Monday.
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