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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #3,201
  • Edited 2:50am Aug 3, 2013 2:38am | Edited 2:50am
Thank you all for this great thread and less clutter.

Weekly Analysis :

It formed Doji this week after previous 3 Weekly UP candles.
Because of upward momentum, it will first touch 3340(WR1) to make double top and then start moving down to 3088 (WS2).

All replies with strong reasoning are welcome
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  • #3,202
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:11am Aug 3, 2013 3:11am
Again the spies:


http://rt.com/news/germany-cancels-s...ance-pact-962/

http://rt.com/news/spy-agency-telecoms-access-966/
  • #3,203
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:16am Aug 3, 2013 3:16am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...areful-big-con


Consumer confidence - great analysis from Citi
  • #3,204
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:27am Aug 3, 2013 3:27am
Quoting ready2start
Thank you all for this great thread and less clutter. Weekly Analysis : It formed Doji this week after previous 3 Weekly UP candles. Because of upward momentum, it will first touch 3340(WR1) to make double top and then start moving down to 3088 (WS2). All replies with strong reasoning are welcome {image}

I think, from an EW perspective, we have two near term options right now:


a) the top is in, and the structure from the bottom at 27x is an ABC - zigzag

b) the top is not in yet, the structure is same as A, but we are now either in wave 4 (down) of the C-wave impulse or already started the wave (up) impulse with yesterdays surge.

If case b), the overall best target zone would be between 3360 to 3425, based on various fib-projections
  • #3,205
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:31am Aug 3, 2013 3:31am
chart for case b)
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  • #3,206
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:47am Aug 3, 2013 3:47am
EU COT Data

The Comms are reducing their long position, large specs are about to go net long


Time to short?
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  • #3,207
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:52am Aug 3, 2013 3:52am
Data from Saxo Bank


some die-hard shorts - should we look for a final ocean of pain (short squeeze)?


Hard to say - last time we saw such things was, when we reached 34x - and at the time given, the shorts got rewarded
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  • #3,208
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:54am Aug 3, 2013 3:54am
Market Pin Risk

http://www.tradingfloor.com/tools/fx...rsals-pin-risk
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  • #3,209
  • Aug 3, 2013 4:36am Aug 3, 2013 4:36am
Little analysis with HiLo for cable.

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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,210
  • Aug 3, 2013 4:56am Aug 3, 2013 4:56am
Quoting godim
Little analysis with HiLo for cable. {image}
Analysis with fans of Gann.
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Both analyzes show that the bears have gone on the defensive. If a new high above 5307, they will be subjected to even greater pressure.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,211
  • Aug 3, 2013 5:24am Aug 3, 2013 5:24am
Quoting godim
{quote} Has confirmed SellSignal {image}
Analysis with using the HiLo for the euro.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,212
  • Aug 3, 2013 5:46am Aug 3, 2013 5:46am
Quoting godim
{quote} Analysis with using the HiLo for the euro. {image}
Analysis with the means of fans of Gann.
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Developments in the euro is trying to catch up with developments in the cable. I say this for several days. Now we see this on the chart. The euro seems even a little ahead in fans. But it is at least one day behind - cable is in a NeutralSlope.

I wish you a fruitful weekend.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,213
  • Aug 3, 2013 6:46am Aug 3, 2013 6:46am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I think, from an EW perspective, we have two near term options right now: a) the top is in, and the structure from the bottom at 27x is an ABC - zigzag b) the top is not in yet, the structure is same as A, but we are now either in wave 4 (down) of the C-wave impulse or already started the wave (up) impulse with yesterdays surge. If case b), the overall best target zone would be between 3360 to 3425, based on various fib-projections
My thoughts exactly. However, I much prefer scenario "a"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,214
  • Aug 3, 2013 8:41am Aug 3, 2013 8:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} My thoughts exactly. However, I much prefer scenario "a"
Well. One question from me.
Let us assume that the the current target is down. Just to assume. Scenario A or Scenario B without any difference. Why is the price not go below 5091 and even rose above 5266? Why?
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I accept the market for a logical and consistent. And for me the logical continuation of this movement is new UpTrend.
For the euro. Could seek support from 3134, but it can go on without her. Even the return of seeking to support is appropriate to be interpreted as a weakness of bulls.
Let's put this possibility (new UpTrend) for next week.
Once again I apologize for the English.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,215
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:30am Aug 3, 2013 9:30am
This chart I do not want to show so much. It induces your more questions, than answers.
Let's see the fan of 3710. The price is in the last line of defense. Attacks the penultimate line of the fan. One, two times price bounces off this line. Accurately. Well almost exactly. So of your graphics can have it as trend line. You can expect a bounce back. But for "The rule for all angles" is possible to have a breakthrough. It is normal when there is a break and support the movement to continue to the upper line. After a while, I'll show on H4.
Now let's look at the fan of 2046. The price was entered in the last line of defense. Bounced was from the penultimate line and then from the next. We have just support of it. And it is normal to have a motion to the upper line. Which will lead to new UpTrend.
I somehow managed to "explain" this tangle of lines. This is great.

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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,216
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:47am Aug 3, 2013 9:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} In that case, I wish you a million laughs. I just think it is a huge risk to take when all the sub-indicators leading up to the NFP are pointing to a much better number. However, the way the market has been reasoning lately, we might even see 1.35xx
Quoting milam
{quote}
Shame on me? No my friend. Shame on the statisticians who have obviously no idea how to count.
Just in case you think I pulled that statement out of my arse, here is the data to prove that my statement was based on facts

Next month I expect an upward revision to reflect the improvements.

ISM Manufacturing July 2013
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ISM Non-Manufacturing July 2013
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Markit Economics Mfg PMI July 2013
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BLS US Jobless Claims July 2013
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,217
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:50am Aug 3, 2013 9:50am
Thank you godim. Is good to see the other side of the coin too.
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
  • #3,218
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:56am Aug 3, 2013 9:56am
Quoting godim
This chart I do not want to show so much. It induces your more questions, than answers. Let's see the fan of 3710. The price is in the last line of defense. Attacks the penultimate line of the fan. One, two times price bounces off this line. Accurately. Well almost exactly. So of your graphics can have it as trend line. You can expect a bounce back. But for "The rule for all angles" is possible to have a breakthrough. It is normal when there is a break and support the movement to continue to the upper line. After a while, I'll show on H4. Now...
Promised the H4 chart.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,219
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:01am Aug 3, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Zyggy
Thank you godim. Is good to see the other side of the coin too.
Yes, yes! The question is, which event is "reverse side of the coin?"
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,220
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:03am Aug 3, 2013 10:03am
Quoting godim
{quote} Well. One question from me. Let us assume that the the current target is down. Just to assume. Scenario A or Scenario B without any difference. Why is the price not go below 5091 and even rose above 5266? Why? {image} I accept the market for a logical and consistent. And for me the logical continuation of this movement is new UpTrend. For the euro. Could seek support from 3134, but it can go on without her. Even the return of seeking to support is appropriate to be interpreted as a weakness of bulls. Let's put this possibility (new UpTrend)...
Yes I agree the market is logical and consistent, but I do not agree that it is a universal logic. If it was, it would fail because without differing biases the market would crash.

I cannot answer why a certain support or resistance line decided to reject price and send it flying the other way, but I can say that if you draw enough lines on your chart, you will always find one that rejects price many times and then eventually doesn't.

I prefer to see the market as a moody person. Sometimes it feels like and sometimes it doesn't, with no particular reason other than its mood. That is why I prefer the Elliott wave theory of price movement based on socio-economic behaviour. It doesn't make sense to everyone, but it makes sense to me When I use this in confluence with traditional PA and rules of supply/demand, the results are awesome even though they are not and will never be 100% accurate.

The beautiful thing about Forex, is that most systems work most of the time, so you and I can see it in a totally different way and still both be profitable in the long run.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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