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  • #541
  • Jul 29, 2013 10:33pm Jul 29, 2013 10:33pm
Update

T-Bonds
A slow grind down, I am hoping that the July 24th Low is not a significant HL now.
Anyway Stop lowered by one day in the meantime. If we break below the above mentioned bar I will move my stop to breakeven most likely.

USD/CAD
This is a pretty reasonable move down. The only thing that worries me is that the bars are overlapping a lot. It does not look to have a lot of momentum. At least it is moving in the correct direction for me AND I am collecting interest on the short.
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  • #542
  • Jul 29, 2013 10:58pm Jul 29, 2013 10:58pm
Silver
May have found support? Something is brewing here in both Au and Ag.
There is going to be a substantial move at some stage up or down.
I recall a similar pattern occurring last year at the same time. We saw a nice move up.
There is a seasonal bias for Gold to rally end of July early August but its not so clear on the Silver seasonal. However these two are highly correlated obviously.
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  • #543
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:27am Jul 30, 2013 12:27am
Quoting mypipbull
Silver May have found support? Something is brewing here in both Au and Ag. There is going to be a substantial move at some stage up or down. I recall a similar pattern occurring last year at the same time. We saw a nice move up. There is a seasonal bias for Gold to rally end of July early August but its not so clear on the Silver seasonal. However these two are highly correlated obviously. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Yep it is

Russia & China Intend to “Kick the Chair Out From Under the US Dollar”
  • #544
  • Aug 3, 2013 5:53am Aug 3, 2013 5:53am
You might be interested in this Mike.

http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/08...ady-to-pay-up/


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  • #545
  • Aug 3, 2013 7:53am Aug 3, 2013 7:53am
Quoting stewrigh
You might be interested in this Mike. http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/08...ady-to-pay-up/ {image}

Holy Moley I am short. While I didnt read this repoty before trading the technical picture I was a strond downtrend and a reversion to the true trend and went short. All these fundamentals might be factored in already

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #546
  • Aug 3, 2013 8:59am Aug 3, 2013 8:59am
Looking at the chart we just had a triple bottom and then a breakout from the down channel and now a pullback.
Not sure but I've got some PO's placed to buy above the last swing high.
I think the fundamentals did it for me but might be a while before it plays out.
On the other hand it is/was in a downtrend - so who knows.
  • #547
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:09am Aug 3, 2013 9:09am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Holy Moley I am short. While I didnt read this repoty before trading the technical picture I was a strond downtrend and a reversion to the true trend and went short. All these fundamentals might be factored in already Olu
If the fundamentals were factored in wouldn't price have been in an uptrend. Price is in a downtrend so there is no shortage yet.

I think price is falling because producers have been getting rid of their cattle - when that finishes there will likely be a shortage.
  • #548
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:31am Aug 3, 2013 9:31am
I hear you S. I have my stop in place. It is very difficult to know when the fundamentals will translate into buy/sells

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #549
  • Aug 7, 2013 12:48am Aug 7, 2013 12:48am
AUD/USD - Short Orders

Might be rolling back over? Support becomes Resistance?
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  • #550
  • Aug 7, 2013 6:58am Aug 7, 2013 6:58am
Hey MBP,

I don't quite get what AU is doing right now. Commercials Extreme Net Long heavily, yet technicals suggest a move lower. I guess we should start looking for longs only once we come back up again the zone marked with an arrow (False Breakout / H&S /QM )? (And when commercials start distributing those longs they have accumulated)

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #551
  • Aug 7, 2013 4:32pm Aug 7, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting stewrigh
Looking at the chart we just had a triple bottom and then a breakout from the down channel and now a pullback. Not sure but I've got some PO's placed to buy above the last swing high. I think the fundamentals did it for me but might be a while before it plays out. On the other hand it is/was in a downtrend - so who knows.

Alas the fundamentals won the day. Price rocketed upwards today just before the close and took my stop like an avalanche
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #552
  • Aug 7, 2013 5:14pm Aug 7, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey MBP, I don't quite get what AU is doing right now. Commercials Extreme Net Long heavily, yet technicals suggest a move lower. I guess we should start looking for longs only once we come back up again the zone marked with an arrow (False Breakout / H&S /QM )? (And when commercials start distributing those longs they have accumulated) {image} {image}
Griz, I agree it is a stubborn trend at the moment. Rule #1 applies in this (and every) situation, "Follow the trend" no matter how overdone it looks. When I take trades this late in a mature trend I usually risk half as much as usual since the odds favour a reversion to the mean sooner rather than later typically.
Fundamentally, despite the COT being extreme as you mentioned the net positioning has not even ticked down its only gotten deeper.
If I see any reduction in Net Positions by the Comms and/or a increase in Net by the Large Specs, with price moving up I would become a bit more encouraged about a turn. This turn could be a reversal or choppy range. Both options are on the table here. Often if an extreme has been held for a while the market just goes into a range while the positions are unwound without a major price move.
As a side, RBA cut rates by 25BP on Tuesday to historic lows. and are maintaining a dovish outlook. This would indicate further weakness to come.

Anyway, I took a small loss last night on the AUD/USD short. I should have waited for the Daily close to confirm NOT the 4H Chart. Lesson learnt.

Good trading mate.
Mike
  • #553
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:25pm Aug 7, 2013 10:25pm
Metals

Maybe I'm too optimistic??....
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  • #554
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:54am Aug 8, 2013 12:54am
Quoting mypipbull
Soybeans {image}
The one that got away........
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  • #555
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:27pm Aug 8, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting stewrigh
You might be interested in this Mike. http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/08...ady-to-pay-up/ {image}
Hmmm

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  • #556
  • Aug 8, 2013 6:18pm Aug 8, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hmmm {image}
False Break or Breakout Pullback. That is the question. Are you long yet?
For what its worth IMO this chart looks bearish. A doji at the top of a range and at resistance.
A Daily close above the Doji high would make me bullish though.
Interesting large volume on the Doji too??...
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  • #557
  • Aug 8, 2013 6:39pm Aug 8, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} False Break or Breakout Pullback. That is the question. Are you long yet? For what its worth IMO this chart looks bearish. A doji at the top of a range and at resistance. A Daily close above the Doji high would make me bullish though. Interesting large volume on the Doji too??... {image}

Hi MPB

I have turned bullish on this one. This sucker went limit up at some point so there is strength. I hear you about the doji so it is best to wait. I was so lucky that I wasnt caught by the limit move. But sooner or later this bullishness will be spent and we will go down. Overcome that doji and a long is good imho

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #558
  • Aug 8, 2013 7:31pm Aug 8, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi MPB I have turned bullish on this one. This sucker went limit up at some point so there is strength. I hear you about the doji so it is best to wait. I was so lucky that I wasnt caught by the limit move. But sooner or later this bullishness will be spent and we will go down. Overcome that doji and a long is good imho Olu
To be fair its easy for me to say all this....I am not trading it.

Looks like two bullish trend lines in play, one is showing support and one has broken down.

From a COT perspective there is no extreme position held by the Comms or Funds.

Good luck to all trading this market anyway.
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  • #559
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:33pm Aug 9, 2013 2:33pm
So how is the year going so far ? (R / % wise)
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #560
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:58pm Aug 10, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
So how is the year going so far ? (R / % wise)
Not sure to of the stats to be honest. I do not track them, I have mentioned before that I find these numbers a distraction.
But if I had to guess I would say 50% correct (could be less)....but have I made money this year......yes is the answer but nothing earth shattering.

How about yourself?
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