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AUD/USD

  • #61,421
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:32am Aug 2, 2013 10:32am
Quoting Oshawa
There seem to be a lot of fundie talk here. Anyone caught up on the news some months ago that aussie had officially become a reserve currency? At that time the speculation was that aussie was too 'high' and how low 'they' would push it down. Even if RBA cuts rate again, it's still the highest yielding currency. At some point it would become sufficiently 'low' enough for some reserve managers to step in. I actually have lower target for aussie to reach by the end of this year, but given the compression type price action, short term some bounce might...
Even on a technical standpoint Aussie can go lower. And interest rates are fundamental. AUDUSD may be a "high" swap pair, but clearly traders don't care. There are higher yielding opportunities. Shoot, a US 10Y has a higher yield. Equities at all time highs.

We can argue that equities will crash and so forth. However, I don't see a major spike for another 200 pips or so. That's not a lot. Also, I don't believe the positive (long) carry trade will resume until equities burn out.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,422
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:45am Aug 2, 2013 10:45am
I have a slightly different read of price action. I don't go for the pivot highs/low, but more like supply/demand imbalance levels. But it's a mute point at the moment, aussie is indeed weak.

Last night there were some discussions here about trend trading or trading reversals. That's probably one of the most debated topic and there won't be any easy and satisfactory solution. Paul Tudor Jones is famed for saying he made most of his money in trading reversals. I guess it's a matter of personality and mindset. Without a suitable personality, trend trading is easier said than done. A few of the institution guys I know all trade reversals, because they find it hard to find a place to get in for so-called trend trades. To each his own, I guess.

http://i40.tinypic.com/11m46du.png
  • #61,423
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:53am Aug 2, 2013 10:53am
.8915 Served its purpose as an excellent scalping opportunity, we never saw it reach .8950

.8880 offered a solid buying opportunity from the descending support trend line I mentioned and a few others have pointed out, its a piece of the descending wedge I mentioned

NFP not that surprising and more/less confirmed what the charts were showing. Another Bounce off the support trendline at .8870 was another solid buying opportunity

So where are we now?

Both Resistance trendlines have been broken, the primary being the most important. Currently trading above .89 and using .89 as a support on smaller time frames shows us that bullish presence.

.90 is still a barrier, if the action looks good this could offer a tiny selling opportunity, word of caution as it generally doesn't make it all the way to .9 for the sell, sometimes its as low as .8970

I would recommend chilling for the day, there shouldn't really be any drastic changes to what we've already seen, I doubt .9 will break through today, and I doubt we'll see much of anything new below .89. The big factor here is going to be keeping an eye on the Daily Close; a solid close around ~.8930 would offer significant support for the bulls.

As of this post, I doubt RBA is going to cut to 2.5%, I know some of you have posted things like 91% chance or 96% chance, but I'm not seeing it, unless the market reaction to a cut would be lackluster or not very volatile.

Safe Trading and Have a Good Weekend.
  • #61,424
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:54am Aug 2, 2013 10:54am
Quoting Oshawa
I have a slightly different read of price action. I don't go for the pivot highs/low, but more like supply/demand imbalance levels. But it's a mute point at the moment, aussie is indeed weak. Last night there were some discussions here about trend trading or trading reversals. That's probably one of the most debated topic and there won't be any easy and satisfactory solution. Paul Tudor Jones is famed for saying he made most of his money in trading reversals. I guess it's a matter of personality and mindset. Without a suitable personality, trend...
Your chart looks similar. And each trader has their own methodology. I get that. IMO I would think institutional traders would have more of a clue on reversals that the average retailer. The access to information, technology and overall skill sets tend to far expand any ol' trader.

I have a philosophy that price will trend to key historical points. I kind of dubbed it "price memory" because if you extend charts out far enough, you will notice key support and demand levels. I don't personally use pivots, but have noticed what I do gets within range of pivots.

I was talking with Gatorinla, and he said basically everything I said was in hindsight until I shoed an extended AUDUSD chart where the pair would continuous top out. I never knew it would drop as hard and fast as it has, but indicated it was the likely end of upward movement. So, in hind sight it may have been correct, but it was simply validation.

I have more respect for those that throw out calculated targets "aussie will bounce .xxxx" oppose to the "it's gonna happen just cuz" and repeat it until it does.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,425
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:04am Aug 2, 2013 11:04am
we hope today daily close at level 895x (pinbar) or higher 90xx (bullis enfulging) to confirmation long bulls.sentiment was changed after china expand and gold has do his job.
just enjoy the party. have a nice weekend
  • #61,426
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:10am Aug 2, 2013 11:10am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Your chart looks similar. And each trader has their own methodology. I get that. IMO I would think institutional traders would have more of a clue on reversals that the average retailer. The access to information, technology and overall skill sets tend to far expand any ol' trader. I have a philosophy that price will trend to key historical points. I kind of dubbed it "price memory" because if you extend charts out far enough, you will notice key support and demand levels. I don't personally use pivots, but have noticed what I do gets...
Institutional traders are not necessarily better than the average properly self-taught retail traders. You would be amazed how simple their 'methodology' or 'systems' really are. But they have one big advantage over retailers: massive margin to double down if they wish, and can sit through bad trades, 4-500 pips drawdown is nothing. Most risk managers are useless.
  • #61,427
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:17am Aug 2, 2013 11:17am
Quoting Oshawa
{quote} Institutional traders are not necessarily better than the average properly self-taught retail traders. You would be amazed how simple their 'methodology' or 'systems' really are. But they have one big advantage over retailers: massive margin to double down if they wish, and can sit through bad trades, 4-500 pips drawdown is nothing. Most risk managers are useless.
True. I have posted many, many, many times that a biggest, one of, is that they are under capitalized.

However, where I think skill/mind set comes into play. I would say 95% of traders on FF trade way too big for their accounts. So, a 10-20 pip SL taps them out. I may have a lot on one pair, but it will be broken up, usually in .2. Most traders are looking for that massive $$$ immediately and over leverage, over trade .5 lots at once and then moves against them and either get SL or manually closed.

Trading forex is like making love to a beautiful women. Slow and steady because when you blow your entire load in two minutes you just end up disappointed and looking foolish.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,428
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:19am Aug 2, 2013 11:19am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} True. I have posted many, many, many times that a biggest, one of, is that they are under capitalized. However, where I think skill/mind set comes into play. I would say 95% of traders on FF trade way too big for their accounts. So, a 10-20 pip SL taps them out. I may have a lot on one pair, but it will be broken up, usually in .2. Most traders are looking for that massive $$$ immediately and over leverage, over trade .5 lots at once and then moves against them and either get SL or manually closed. Trading forex is like making love to a...
Unfortunately, most people have to learn the hard way.
  • #61,429
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:22am Aug 2, 2013 11:22am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} Unfortunately, most people have to learn the hard way.
Yes. Unfortunately, I have noticed not much learning
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,430
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:25am Aug 2, 2013 11:25am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Your chart looks similar. And each trader has their own methodology. I get that. IMO I would think institutional traders would have more of a clue on reversals that the average retailer. The access to information, technology and overall skill sets tend to far expand any ol' trader. I have a philosophy that price will trend to key historical points. I kind of dubbed it "price memory" because if you extend charts out far enough, you will notice key support and demand levels. I don't personally use pivots, but have noticed what I do gets...
I think that the better way to trade is not stick to the chart too much, that may be the misconception.
  • #61,431
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:28am Aug 2, 2013 11:28am
Quoting yaphets
{quote} I think that the better way to trade is not stick to the chart too much, that may be the misconception.
It is a combination of factors: charts, maths, fundamentals, cross-currencies, correlations. I mean you do have to be well-rounded.

Also, most people don't realize trade weak/strong or strong/weak.

For instance, long the strongest currency against its counterpart. Long eur/usd today, but short AUD/USD. Not always the case, but usually.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,432
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:41pm Aug 2, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting Neqrotik
FXCM has to be the shittiest broker. Paying on average 2.5 pips for every fucking trade. Pisses me off to the core.
Quoting 2+2=4ex
At what time? Regardless, I have noticed they are consistently worse than Oanda, when comparing US regulated market makers.
It's important when comparing spreads between brokers to keep in mind what execution model is being used. For example, FXCM offers clients the choice between two types of forex execution: No Dealing Desk (NDD) and Dealing Desk. While we believe that NDD execution provides the best all-around trading experience, we also offer dealing desk execution as an option for traders whose primary concern is low spreads.

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/5384/cz5d.png

As you can see from the real-time spreads table here on Forex Factory, our dealing desk spreads compare favorably with other brokers on the same execution model.
  • #61,433
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:57pm Aug 2, 2013 12:57pm
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  • #61,434
  • Aug 2, 2013 1:00pm Aug 2, 2013 1:00pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} {quote} It's important when comparing spreads between brokers to keep in mind ......
Jason,

I really appreciate the response here. Will definitely keep in mind.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,435
  • Aug 2, 2013 1:15pm Aug 2, 2013 1:15pm
dear what do you think what will be happen the aud is on 0.8887 where will it go? any idea.............
  • #61,436
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:26pm Aug 2, 2013 3:26pm
Just Enjoy 2 Days of WeenEnd only for ur Self No Trading No tension Just Re-lax
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  • #61,437
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:43pm Aug 2, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} {quote} It's important when comparing spreads between brokers to keep in mind what execution model is being used. For example, FXCM offers clients the choice between two types of forex execution: No Dealing Desk (NDD) and Dealing Desk. While we believe that NDD execution provides the best all-around trading experience, we also offer dealing desk execution as an option for traders whose primary concern is low spreads. {image} As you can see from the real-time spreads table here on Forex Factory, our dealing desk spreads compare favorably...
What is the difference between NDD and DD? Is DD slow?
  • #61,438
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:02pm Aug 2, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting samirs
{quote} you seem to be too tired of trading.....overtrading? do you keep your positions open?

nUP oVER TRADING its my Rule 2days for himself and others are only for work
  • #61,439
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:10pm Aug 2, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting iahmedz
{quote} What is the difference between NDD and DD? Is DD slow?
Hi Iahmedz,

While DD execution isn't slow, NDD can be more suitable for certain strategies. This table highlights the differences between our two execution options. (You can click on the image below to enlarge it.)

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/2977/8kg.png


If you have any additional questions about this, feel free to ask me in the FXCM discussion thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post6859429

Jason
  • #61,440
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:35pm Aug 2, 2013 9:35pm
Quoting JollyBean
You guys are missing the point. Here's the real reason to buy AUD http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...re/763864.html

Holy Shit !!
Man made island with a shape of 'YUAN COIN" ????
Oz is OWNED!

http://assets0.redbubble.net/assets/...4adec63ee4.gifhttps://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/i...vn8P86VrcrYWtt
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