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  • #541
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:14am Aug 2, 2013 8:14am
So ....going back to what everyone is used to seeing (BB/Stoch)

See where this needs to go ?
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  • #542
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:28am Aug 2, 2013 8:28am
Great observation!
I want more brain power!
  • #543
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:37am Aug 2, 2013 8:37am
Quoting cfdtaleong
Great observation!

Thank you.....now if someone smarter than me can explain the DS thing (birthed and unbirthed as vlady has pointed out), we might be able to link the two concepts together.
  • #544
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:39am Aug 2, 2013 8:39am
On a day like this (when NFP is on), the concepts that we've struggled with for just over 7-14 days (started looking at this 15th July I think) has turned a $5,000 demo account into $17,600.

There is something in this guys. It's not perfect by any means - and I would say it's a manually triggered method, but gosh when you get into the rhythm of the signals, it can be quite rewarding.... don't give up! Keep up the brilliant work, ideas and suggestions!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #545
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:45am Aug 2, 2013 8:45am
Quoting vlady1974
On a day like this (when NFP is on), the concepts that we've struggled with for just over 7-14 days (started looking at this 15th July I think) has turned a $5,000 demo account into $17,600. There is something in this guys. It's not perfect by any means - and I would say it's a manually triggered method, but gosh when you get into the rhythm of the signals, it can be quite rewarding.... don't give up! Keep up the brilliant work, ideas and suggestions!


Well done Vlady!
  • #546
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:54am Aug 2, 2013 8:54am
Quoting almo
{quote} Thank you.....now if someone smarter than me can explain the DS thing (birthed and unbirthed as vlady has pointed out), we might be able to link the two concepts together.

Using Ralome's newest indicator -
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  • #547
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:56am Aug 2, 2013 8:56am
Quoting almo
{quote} Thank you.....now if someone smarter than me can explain the DS thing (birthed and unbirthed as vlady has pointed out), we might be able to link the two concepts together.
I don't think we have a definitive answer Almo. It's more like mixed ideas and implementations.

But the general principle is this:

Self Similarity
Normal Market conditions = trend.
This means the price of EURUSD is the same across all timeframes because all participants see the price and agree to buy/sell at that price.
Subsequently all activity is at equilibrium, whether or not you are a 1M scalper or 1MONTH position trader.

The key concept here that we as MT4 chartists are concerned with is that if PRICE = PRICE, then we can substitute price with another "indicator" or derivative of price, eg. Stochastic which in itself is an average of prices over the last x bars.... and if similarity in prices exists, then the shape of both PRICE and STOCH should be the same. Therefore no surprises.

Dissimilarity
Abnormal Market conditions = change in trend
A set of circumstances that reflects an arbitrage movement, where some big player(s) has or have taken advantage of an opportunity. This "movement" may display itself as an anomaly in a price indicator in one timeframe and not another. In essence, from the eg. above:

PRICE <> STOCH because a new bar in, for example the 1M bar has a significantly HIGHER HIGH creating a difference and upsetting the equilibrium.

==================
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

  1. The dissimilarity is always triggered by a PRICE BAR. The Hi and Low of that bar represents price extremes that can act as Dynamics Support and Resistance for the future - UNTIL PRICE RETURNS TO THAT AREA and goes through it...... thus eliminating it and sending a message to the market that the arbitrage opportunity from that price range is gone for the time being.
  2. The period of time that PRICE is dissimilar usually marks an upheaval: a change in trend or a big push in continuation of a trend, but at a better price.
  3. The mathematical concept of Dissimilarity means that any 2 price indicators or derivative of price can be compared for and provide a comparison for similiarity.
  4. The author of this idea, Eurusdd, started out using:

    1. The Cycle Identifier (CI), then
    2. The StochBB method - which he described as being 10% more efficient than CI


RECENT IDEAS

  1. A majority of the ideas and templates work on the basis of 4500 minutes, equating well with the 15M timeframe on the MT4 charts. That equals 300 bars of historical price, over which SIM or DISSIMILARITY is tested until a trend is either maintained in 24 bars or not.
  2. Recently, the idea that we can try and STACK the dissimilarities over multiple timeframes has gathered speed. The premise that once a disruption's effects are felt - the market eventually evens out. This could happen instantly (smaller timeframe) or gradually (smaller to larger timeframe).

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #548
  • Edited 9:26am Aug 2, 2013 9:02am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting juhanimi
anyways, found that mtf cycle, that should be something {image}
Just so you know Juhanimi, I thoroughly enjoy your posts..

To anyone who is still trying to adapt the similarity principle (though I guess most people are settled at this point); perhaps I could offer a thought on using the concept, what would you do if you knew the approximate location of every top and bottom on your chart...think as laterally as you can..
  • #549
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:08am Aug 2, 2013 9:08am
Quoting almo
{quote} Using Ralome's newest indicator - {image}
Look at the PINK BOX.
This is when a CHANGE IN TREND OCCURRED = Dissimilarity was happening.
Price crossed the range and then eventually, it stopped.

When it stopped, markets went back to normal and the trend that was established for the timeframe was bearish.
The GREEN BOX now represents an UNRESOLVED RANGE OF PRICE that the market will eventually RETURN TO.

So as you can see... as it travelled south, another range of DISSIMILARITY occurred, and then again at NFP.
One key here is that the price RANGE of the GREEN BOX is alot wider and thus STRONGER in pull than the other smaller one.

BUT

The fact that price was underneath both of the "born" zones means that the only way to ATTACK the ZONES and CLEAR/RESOLVE them is from underneath.
This means it is a LONG TRADE OPPORTUNITY.

NOW

Price has reached the GREEN BOX. It's not as simple as to expect that price will just go through it. What we have learned many times is that the first reaction is like a shy girl..... you'll be rejected and rebuffed, but you'll still be attracted to her until she let's you in. Apologies for the crude analogy but I hope it paints the picture

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #550
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:10am Aug 2, 2013 9:10am
Quoting Thoughts
{quote} Just to you know Juhanimi, I thoroughly enjoy your posts.. To anyone who is still trying to adapt the similarity principle (though I guess most people are settled at this point); perhaps I could offer a thought on using the concept, what would you do if you knew the approximate location of every top and bottom on your chart...think as laterally as you can..
I'm Luvin' It!

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #551
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:13am Aug 2, 2013 9:13am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I don't think we have a definitive answer Almo. It's more like mixed ideas and implementations. But the general principle is this: Self Similarity Normal Market conditions = trend. This means the price of EURUSD is the same across all timeframes because all participants see the price and agree to buy/sell at that price. Subsequently all activity is at equilibrium, whether or not you are a 1M scalper or 1MONTH position trader. The key concept here that we as MT4 chartists are concerned with is that if PRICE = PRICE, then we can substitute...


Wow Vlady - there is a lot of meat on this post. It will take me some time to marinate on this one. Thank you for this response!
  • #552
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:15am Aug 2, 2013 9:15am
Quoting vlady1974
On a day like this (when NFP is on), the concepts that we've struggled with for just over 7-14 days (started looking at this 15th July I think) has turned a $5,000 demo account into $17,600. There is something in this guys. It's not perfect by any means - and I would say it's a manually triggered method, but gosh when you get into the rhythm of the signals, it can be quite rewarding.... don't give up! Keep up the brilliant work, ideas and suggestions!
  • #553
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:21am Aug 2, 2013 9:21am
Quoting almo
{quote} Wow Vlady - there is a lot of meat on this post. It will take me some time to marinate on this one. Thank you for this response!
Here's a simpler analogy.

Imagine you are a passenger in a car (EURUSD) travelling at 60 km/hr.
All of a sudden the driver (Big Players) accelerate to Formula 1 speed @ 120km/hr

What happens to you if you're drinking a can of coke?
You physically get jolted backwards and won't be able to move until YOU AND THE CAR are at equilibrium.

If the car stops going fast, you will feel the momentum change.
You are not the car, but you are inside the car and are therefore travelling at the same speed even though inside you are cooly drinking a can of coke in sitting position.

=========
You are like the Stochastic Bollinger Band indicator.
Price is EURUSD
The speed is a timeframe
The driver are Big Institutional Investors
The point where the car accellerates is DISSIMILARITY STARTING
The point where the car returns to normal speed is DISSIMILARITY ENDING or SIMILARITY RETURNING

Jolts in PRICE require indicators to catch up before you are in equilibrium with the speed of price.
What if you marked all the price levels where these "changes" occur on a chart, eg. GREEN BOX? Would that not be advantageous?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #554
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:23am Aug 2, 2013 9:23am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} It's not as simple as to expect that price will just go through it. What we have learned many times is that the first reaction is like a shy girl..... you'll be rejected and rebuffed, but you'll still be attracted to her until she let's you in. Apologies for the crude analogy but I hope it paints the picture
Exactly! We have seen this happen many times. That is why I was skeptic when it was discussed if the right thing to do was to put a pending order at one side and an T/P at the other of a zone. - Its simply not certain that the zone will be taken out just because price enters it! It also acts as S/R.
In this case, dis-sim started and trend changed, went up and found that green zone as resistance! But now what?!
Will that zone act as resistance until we get similarity again and another dis-sim starts to take that zone out finally!?
  • #555
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:31am Aug 2, 2013 9:31am
Quoting spufuz
{quote} Exactly! We have seen this happen many times. That is why I was skeptic when it was discussed if the right thing to do was to put a pending order at one side and an T/P at the other of a zone. - Its simply not certain that the zone will be taken out just because price enters it! It also acts as S/R. In this case, dis-sim started and trend changed, went up and found that green zone as resistance! But now what?! Will that zone act as resistance until we get similarity again and another dis-sim starts to take that zone out finally!?
It's better not to treat them as trade triggers but destinations.
Which is why I personally don't create a pending order on one end and TP at the other.

If anything, Eurusdd would say "trade away from the DS" but this can be interrpeted 2 ways:

  1. As soon as DS ends, trade in the opposite direction
  2. As soon as price is the furthest away from a DS Zone, watch for price to start approaching or heading back towards it and get in early.

~Therefore, I rely pretty much on the STOCHBB method because the ZZTOP/BOT trigger is synchronised to the 24 period of the Bollinger.
Remember that if you are using Ralome's indicator:

300 bars are compared. If a dissimilarity value is detected, the zone will be marked and will continue to be marked until after 24 bars when there isn't a dissimilarity.

I actually did a count randomly one day... can't remember which timeframe.... but it was roughly 26 bars before the next ZZ swing occured. Then I counted again and it was 25. So it was in sync timing-wise. AND OF COURSE IT WILL REPAINT..... so hence if you knew where the BIG ZONES were in advance and you entered at the furthest position away from them.... then when price returns to the zone.... you can exit at first touch! If price hovers around, you could choose to trade into the zone and TP the zone's other extreme price.

As long as you know where you are in relation to the ZONE.... that's where your trade is.... the gap!

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #556
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:34am Aug 2, 2013 9:34am
Okay... 1M shows DS ended.

I've been shorting this everytime it's painted a new ZZTOP on the 1M. Positions underwater.
But on 5M, ZZTOP has just formed and the bollinger bands are near horizontal.... therefore a ZZBOT must be a vertical drop.. let's see The 5M also has us inside the zone for the first time. Could be more resistence.

On the 15M, ZZTOP formed... so more shorts.

Let's see.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #557
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:35am Aug 2, 2013 9:35am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Here's a simpler analogy. Imagine you are a passenger in a car (EURUSD) travelling at 60 km/hr. All of a sudden the driver (Big Players) accelerate to Formula 1 speed @ 120km/hr What happens to you if you're drinking a can of coke? You physically get jolted backwards and won't be able to move until YOU AND THE CAR are at equilibrium. If the car stops going fast, you will feel the momentum change. You are not the car, but you are inside the car and are therefore travelling at the same speed even though inside you are cooly drinking a can...


I like this analogy - I can relate to it [especially now, after what appears to be rediscovering the DS zone using alternative indicators]

Thanks Vlady
  • #558
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:54am Aug 2, 2013 9:54am
Quoting vlady1974
Okay... 1M shows DS ended. I've been shorting this everytime it's painted a new ZZTOP on the 1M. Positions underwater. But on 5M, ZZTOP has just formed and the bollinger bands are near horizontal.... therefore a ZZBOT must be a vertical drop.. let's see The 5M also has us inside the zone for the first time. Could be more resistence. On the 15M, ZZTOP formed... so more shorts. Let's see.

I'm trading the other side


I can see why you would be shorting if you were out from the NFP news....but I can't let go of this long while its continuing to go up.
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  • #559
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:00am Aug 2, 2013 10:00am
Quoting almo
{quote} I'm trading the other side I can see why you would be shorting if you were out from the NFP news....but I can't let go of this long while its continuing to go up. {image}
Is it real money?

I don't have the same levels as you. I have 1.3336 as the top of that box.
Anyway, not important. You're in the green. If she was to go down on the 5M... she would drop to your entry price.
I'd take the money now. You won. You didn't lose. You don't need it to get to that zone end to be a winner.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #560
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:05am Aug 2, 2013 10:05am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Is it real money? I don't have the same levels as you. I have 1.3336 as the top of that box. Anyway, not important. You're in the green. If she was to go down on the 5M... she would drop to your entry price. I'd take the money now. You won. You didn't lose. You don't need it to get to that zone end to be a winner.

No..just virtual dollars. I need a few more weeks of solid returns before I start to consider going live.

I see the huge potential in all of this...just have to keep plugging away
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