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AUD/USD

  • #61,401
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:47am Aug 2, 2013 8:47am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} I am blown away by the downward pressure on this pair. USD news was as bad as Bulls could hope for, yet we hit a new low. I am wondering now if RBA rate cut would have much of an effect, or could we soon find a bottom (has to be out there somewhere...?)
It's not that USD is not bad, but the sentiment towards AUD is worse, with forward expectations on next week's releases i.e. cash rate and statement influencing the action

Look at E/U and GBP/U, the rally seems to be sustaining
Trade the reaction, not the news!
  • #61,402
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:56am Aug 2, 2013 8:56am
I am getting long here now ay 0.8892 and looking to add above 0.8912.
  • #61,403
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:57am Aug 2, 2013 8:57am
The chart is like before 2008 cisis, but i think this will not happen in this year, so instead of heading downward, it may go up in near future.
  • #61,404
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:59am Aug 2, 2013 8:59am
Anyone here looks at that Dilernia model. Aussie just hit its 3-quarterly low exactly to the pip. So if it will bounce, this will be a good place.

PA wise, the constant spiking up and down is a sign of compression and searching for liquidity. Also the current low seems like a fake breakout can't close below.
  • #61,405
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:00am Aug 2, 2013 9:00am
that's why the chart go up every time it hit lower low, this mean that bull trader does not put stop loss on the low
  • #61,406
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:01am Aug 2, 2013 9:01am
Gold and AUD are sisters
  • #61,407
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:06am Aug 2, 2013 9:06am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} which part is bad? UR is lower.. inflation is higher...
NFP's are 24k lower AND the participation rate was lower.

Private payroll 30k lower.

Also if you look at the breakdown, the only jobs added are in retail sector. Part-time employment is at an all time high.
  • #61,408
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:13am Aug 2, 2013 9:13am
Quoting yaphets
that's why the chart go up every time it hit lower low, this mean that bull trader does not put stop loss on the low
Huh? 5 lows just this week. It is testing the limits, and it is reaching further each time. It doesn't mean a bull didn't put a stop loss. His trade is already factored into the equation. New orders move the market not old ones.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,409
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:18am Aug 2, 2013 9:18am
Out with - pips, lesson learn... Gotta look at big picture, i just short at 0.989, targeting 0.985, might close earlier even with - pips. Next week will be big... Either continuos or reversal...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,410
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:23am Aug 2, 2013 9:23am
Quoting Oshawa
Not suggesting anyone to pick bottom. But the momentum is waning, and a potential broadening pattern here. {image}
Expanding wave 5 It seams to be...........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #61,411
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:27am Aug 2, 2013 9:27am
and now everyone is going to say........

see I told you to go long.....

LOL!
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #61,412
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:28am Aug 2, 2013 9:28am
Quoting Faller
and now everyone is going to say........ see I told you to go long..... LOL!

stop looking at the 1 min 3 min and 5 min charts.........and you will understand what is going on!


LOL!
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #61,413
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:28am Aug 2, 2013 9:28am
Quoting Faller
{quote} stop looking at the 1 min 3 min and 5 min charts.........and you will understand what is going on! LOL!

LMFAO
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #61,414
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:35am Aug 2, 2013 9:35am
The US data is pretty bad today, and AU is the only one created new low for those major currencies against USD after the data released. (although it bounce up a bit now)
Seems AU has some troubles..
Maybe we'd better stay away for this pair right now, if you want to long, you'd better have a tight loss with small lot to make sure your loss no more than 1% when you hit stop loss.. if you want to short, it could be also very risky, there is a possibilities even the Aussie cut 25% this pair may still bounce up as the market always done the pre-action of this week.
I think everyone needs to be very careful with stop loss for both long and short..
  • #61,415
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:43am Aug 2, 2013 9:43am
You guys are missing the point.

Here's the real reason to buy AUD

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...re/763864.html
  • #61,416
  • Aug 2, 2013 9:45am Aug 2, 2013 9:45am
Quoting JollyBean
You guys are missing the point. Here's the real reason to buy AUD http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...re/763864.html

hehe nice.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,417
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:07am Aug 2, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Mobious
{quote} You've have asked this multiple times on one page, google it, or take Econ 101. If RBA cuts their interest rate, it means it is more expensive (relatively) to hold their currency (you get less, when before the interest rate was higher and more people are willing to hold your currency) so AUD will sink. Jesus f christ, as a forex trader you should somewhat understand the most basic of finance principles.

you are partial correct....even though rates may go down.......Aussie will still be the highest yielding currency - so will it really go down?
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #61,418
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:15am Aug 2, 2013 10:15am
Quoting seaman2
{quote}
Are you seriously applauding that? Today, I am going to say it will rain in Death Valley. 6 months from now when it rains, I get to say "I told you so"
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,419
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:20am Aug 2, 2013 10:20am

Quoting Mobious
{quote} You've have asked this multiple times on one page, google it, or take Econ 101. If RBA cuts their interest rate, it means it is more expensive (relatively) to hold their currency (you get less, when before the interest rate was higher and more people are willing to hold your currency) so AUD will sink. Jesus f christ, as a forex trader you should somewhat understand the most basic of finance principles.




Fundamentals will point to an overall direction, true. I "specialize" in trend analysis and looking in strengthen my forecasting abilities. Many people on here trade micro frames because they have $20 accounts with 500:1 leverage. So, in the little scheme of things 20-30 points is a lot.


What I have an issue with is every day the same traders say "today is the time to go long. Then tomorrow "today is the time to go long." Then two days from now "today is the time to go long." Then we get a mediocre spike that does nothing in the bigger picture and we get "I told you so"



Quoting Faller
{quote} you are partial correct....even though rates may go down.......Aussie will still be the highest yielding currency - so will it really go down?
Even so, it is clear AUDUSD is not worth holding long term. You may collect a marginal swap, but the likelihood of the trade being in the green by the deadline is slim because "rallies" don't last long. I would rather hold Kiwi
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,420
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:26am Aug 2, 2013 10:26am
There seem to be a lot of fundie talk here. Anyone caught up on the news some months ago that aussie had officially become a reserve currency? At that time the speculation was that aussie was too 'high' and how low 'they' would push it down. Even if RBA cuts rate again, it's still the highest yielding currency. At some point it would become sufficiently 'low' enough for some reserve managers to step in.

I actually have lower target for aussie to reach by the end of this year, but given the compression type price action, short term some bounce might not be too big a surprise.
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