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Similarity: A Practical Approach

  • #521
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:27am Aug 2, 2013 3:27am
Good morning!
As a simple exercise: ZZBOT has formed. What's the next swing?
ZZTOP
Can you try and predict where, using the BB?
1EMA touch or out of BB + stoch touch or out of bb + stoch at or very near 0 + simlarity between the two is best
Based on this alone, I would say UP DAY.
But u can also add that we're in a completed zone's prices. Support? definitely. i forgot to add... If you can set your self a daily bias: How would you trade lower TF? 1M,5M,15M?
15M
would you trade counter trends as well as trend?
Yes
how would you handle SL? Or would you hedge?
I pray real hard? Actually still trying to figure out a sensible way to do this.......
I want more brain power!
  • #522
  • Edited 3:51am Aug 2, 2013 3:30am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} large fortunes are behind major algorithms. This topic is very interesting, but not easy to implement. Recall that EURUSDD has taken about five years into it. To us it saved about two years, only to see these market failures. I would like to continue with your explanations but I think your system has been successful and will be refined
This thing that Baillee is describing would have to be another method. I wouldn't want to call it a system yet. That would imply that it's been tested and proven..... no it hasn't. It's more like a cooking recipe - ingredients and method but open to people's interpretations!

S/R and D/S was how I was taught to trade so it's my natural instinct and I therefore think it has merit.
How we combine this with Sim/Dissim is the challenge.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #523
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:34am Aug 2, 2013 3:34am
Quoting cfdtaleong
Good morning! As a simple exercise: ZZBOT has formed. What's the next swing? ZZTOP Can you try and predict where, using the BB? 1EMA touch or out of BB + stoch touch or out of bb + stoch at or very near 0 + simlarity between the two is best Based on this alone, I would say UP DAY. But u can also add that we're in a completed zone's prices. Support? definitely. i forgot to add... If you can set your self a daily bias: How would you trade lower TF? 1M,5M,15M? 15M would you trade counter trends as well as trend? Yes how would you handle SL? Or would...
CFDA! Good morning mate!

You're getting it!
Gee that made me sound like a guru... definitely not mate. But it really comes down to accepting the parameters of the method and then tailoring it to suit your personality.

I was at a business function last night to do with property investing. I was in a group talking about a well know property guru with an investment method. We were discussing the fact that it was great in theory but not that great in practice from the perspective that people weren't getting it right.
I responded with an analogy.... just because Jean Paul Gautier (famous designer) has made an amazing jacket doesn't mean that it will fit you correctly or will suit your body, face, shape, etc. It's still an excellent jacket with excellent materials but the design has to be tailored for it to fit you.

This is no different to trading a Principle or Concept or Idea.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #524
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:46am Aug 2, 2013 3:46am
This is my long range 1H showing the 300EMA is now devilishly close but price is still above it, so the default outlook will always be UP unless signals say it's not.

The StochBB in the lower range reflects price action. So basically we've seen a series of shorts for 2 days. It would be natural for an up day to occur as a breather.... besides it's Friday and we may see some profit taking.

The blue line 1.31365 is a S/R from the month so it would be a key price if it was broken.

=========

If ZZBOT then next = ZZTOP
Where is price now in relation to ZZBOT?
It's at midline. You could Long and SL at ZZBOT? You could long and no SL. That's for 1 hour!!
So if you go to the 15M you can see that it's just done a ZZTOP but it's not a ZZTOP on the 1Hour so it's not finished.
You could Short on the 15M until it forms a ZZBOT.... then take 2 longs.... one to exit on the next 15M Top and the other to exit on the 1H top.

guys I am making this up as I go along. What I hope to be demonstrating is that I am using the parameters set by the indicators that everyone has worked so hard to write and understand. The parameters act like a pendulum giving me a beat to dance with. I enter a trade on a beat or inside a beat.... and I exit on the appropriate future beat.

EDIT:
Where is the 1H ZZTOP going to be? Firstly, I don't care about repainting... if I am expecting a zztop, then I should have been long from underneath so I wait until it's confirmed. The upper BB band on the 1H is at 1.3246 so any price above this will be a potential. Current price is 1.32169 so you have 20.x pips to play with!
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #525
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:06am Aug 2, 2013 4:06am
Quoting cfdtaleong
Reading the threads I've realised my understanding of the various indicators and functions is rather lacking. Anyone know of any books or web resources where I can study more?


See My Post #513.
That is i told you, no need to waste time on strength meter.
  • #526
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:06am Aug 2, 2013 4:06am
Can't stop today but be careful going long to heavy!!! I think we are gonna fall big soon

good luck
  • #527
  • Edited 4:30am Aug 2, 2013 4:13am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting josh11
Can't stop today but be careful going long to heavy!!! I think we are gonna fall big soon good luck
Agree. Dollar strength based on news is gonna be big pressure on EU. UJ longs are looking good for some traders I know.

EDIT:
I don't know if that drop will necessarily happen today, but better armed than not.
WHOOOPS! Forgot about NFP! LOL... watch out people's!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #528
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:26am Aug 2, 2013 4:26am
Quoting Me3w
{quote} See My Post #513. That is i told you, no need to waste time on strength meter.
Ah thanks hmm did'nt see the pictures earlier...my computer acting funny again
I want more brain power!
  • #529
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:00am Aug 2, 2013 5:00am
looks like everything is from
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=315572
  • #530
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:11am Aug 2, 2013 5:11am
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #531
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:14am Aug 2, 2013 5:14am
%trend meter, i don`t think that is useful, looks like just measuring time, candle open and close
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  • #532
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:16am Aug 2, 2013 5:16am
Ranging market at the moment and NFP later so not trading but have left 4 orders based on zones only (see blue rectangles). Whipsaw will happen of course but there seems to be a increased buying of USDJPY prior to today (I keep a little .01 USDJPY running for real just to keep my eye on developments in that currency pair) I suspect that EURUSD will fall so I may place a fifth order below
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  • #533
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:22am Aug 2, 2013 5:22am
anyways, found that mtf cycle, that should be something
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  • #534
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:28am Aug 2, 2013 5:28am
Quoting taypot
Ranging market at the moment and NFP later so not trading but have left 4 orders based on zones only (see blue rectangles). Whipsaw will happen of course but there seems to be a increased buying of USDJPY prior to today (I keep a little .01 USDJPY running for real just to keep my eye on developments in that currency pair) I suspect that EURUSD will fall so I may place a fifth order below {image}
Thanks for this Taypot! I see what you're doing now in terms of "targetting" the DS candle.... you are targeting the HI/LO of the bar. If bull, then enter at LO and exit at HI.... SIMPLES!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #535
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:43am Aug 2, 2013 5:43am
someone said in similarity thread: Finding irregularities in the market and trade it back to balance.
...and CI shows these irregularities many times every day, okey, trade good
  • #536
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:55am Aug 2, 2013 5:55am
BTW I think I am bearish on the Eurusd... I posted before on other thread about the descending triangle formation on the monthly. When a move out of that comes (most likely down) it will blow stops and there will be big profits. I know its not relevant here so here's a link to my chart with the formation and renko boxes (just visible).
http://screencast.com/t/sJ76RFsa
  • #537
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:14am Aug 2, 2013 6:14am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Thanks for this Taypot! I see what you're doing now in terms of "targetting" the DS candle.... you are targeting the HI/LO of the bar. If bull, then enter at LO and exit at HI.... SIMPLES!
Yes, Thanks vlady for putting it into words, I need that! There are two ideas here for my latest system. As a trading butterfly i need to pin myself down a bit.

1...I have used the fractals (Bill Williams) and placed a sell below the low of last down bar marked by a fractal to target nearest zone below and take profit there as price will probably find support.

Of course a fall could be strong so this leads to the next order

2. Once price is in the zone i have placed orders to target opposite zone edge

Just in case price does rise I have placed hedges using same idea. I am watching CI action on the chart below for shorting opportunities too.
  • #538
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:36am Aug 2, 2013 7:36am
could fail with big news, spike down and up was so fast, big news is no time to play with CI dissim , there was a "must repaint situation" and this is demo, over 1000 pips in no time, lol
i think this is my kind of trading, but not in news time
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  • #539
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:54am Aug 2, 2013 7:54am
Seems that depending on the indicators you use, your either trying to isolate situations where they are 90% Similar/10% Disimiliar or vice versa

It had never occurred to me that an actual cross on 2 MA's is the only time you have similarity.
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  • #540
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:06am Aug 2, 2013 8:06am
Or, that past points of Similiarity (using MA) = Future targets
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